Federal Register - July 14, 2021
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Source: Federal Register
37007
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 132 / Wednesday, July 14, 2021 / Rules and Regulations and projections of large office existing floor space and large office additions as the variables referred to as 2019
regression in Table III.3. 85 FR 57149, 57156.
TABLE III.3COMPARISON OF SHIPMENT PROJECTIONS FOR WCUACS AND ECUACS BY EQUIPMENT CLASS
2018
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
39
39
33
39
18
39
10
39
6
39
3
39
2
39
Small WCUAC, <65,000 Btu/h 2012
2012
2019
2019
trend
constant =2009
trend
constant =2018
Small WCUAC, 65,000 and <135,000 Btu/h 2012
2012
2019
2019
trend
constant =2009
trend
constant =2018
Large WCUAC, 135,000 and <240,000 Btu/h 2012
2012
2019
2019
trend
constant =2009
trend
constant =2018
Very Large WCUAC, 240,000 and 760,000 Btu/h 2012
2012
2019
2019
2019
trend
constant =2009
trend
constant =2018
regression
I
93
152
106
106
I
132
182
108
108
I
953
585
844
844
844
I
I
I
I
76
152
87
106
117
182
110
108
944
585
777
844
1000
I
I
I
I
I
46
152
52
106
87
182
78
108
923
585
721
844
929
I
I
I
I
I
28
152
32
106
17
152
19
106
10
152
11
106
6
152
7
106
64
182
55
108
47
182
39
108
35
182
28
108
26
182
20
108
903
585
664
844
927
I
I
I
I
882
585
608
844
865
I
I
861
585
551
844
844
I
I
840
585
495
844
828
Small ECUAC, <65,000 Btu/h 2012
2012
2019
2019
trend
constant =2009
trend
constant =2018
Very Large ECUAC, 240,000 and 760,000 Btu/h
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with RULES1
2012
2012
2019
2019
2019
trend
constant =2009
trend
constant =2018
regression
In the May 2012 final rule, DOE did not analyze small ECUACs and WCUACs with cooling capacity less than 65,000 Btu/h. 77 FR 28927, 28934
28937. For the July 2019 ECS RFI, DOE
identified a single manufacturer of ECUACs in this capacity range, and the models offered are single-phase equipment and appear to be predominantly marketed for residential applications in regions of the United States with hot and dry climates, suggesting that there are few if any shipments in other regions of the United States. 84 FR 36480, 36485. DOE
identified only two distinct product lines of WCUACs with cooling capacity less than 65,000 Btu/h, and DOEs examination of manufacturer literature for these WCUACs suggested that these
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156
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245
150
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14
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models do not comprise a significant share of the market for air conditioners in residential or commercial applications. Id.
The projected trends from the May 2012 final rule and those based on the updated data both generally show declines in shipments for small 65,000
and <135,000 Btu/h, large and very large WCUACs, and very large ECUACs.
The shipment levels under the 2019
constant projections are lower than the 2012 constant projections for small 65,000 and <135,000 Btu/h and large WCUACs and very large ECUACs. The 2019 constant projections for very large WCUACs are higher than the 2012
constant projections but lower than the 2012 trend projections. The 2019
regression projections for very large
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I
I
72
156
238
150
12
14
16
I
40
156
24
156
12
156
8
156
232
150
11
14
16
227
150
10
14
14
221
150
9
14
14
216
150
9
14
14
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WCUACs and ECUACs show a more stable level of shipments over the analysis period than the 2019 trend models, but are lower than the 2012
trend projection.
Given that DOE did not analyze ECUACs and WCUACs with cooling capacity less than 65,000 Btu/h for the May 2012 final rule, no comparisons to the current projections are possible. The current trended shipments projections for the small cooling capacity less than 65,000 Btu/h equipment classes reach 10 or fewer shipments by 2045.
In response to the September 2020
NOPD, UCA stated that the historical shipments data presented by DOE is not complete and asserted that the shipments data does not capture dozens of manufacturers that do not belong to
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