Federal Register - July 14, 2021
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Source: Federal Register
37006
Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 132 / Wednesday, July 14, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
potential for amended standards determined in the May 2012 final rule.
1. Shipments Estimates DOE uses projections of annual product shipments to calculate the national impacts of potential amended energy conservation standards on energy use.10 The shipments model takes an accounting approach in tracking market shares of each product class and the vintage of units in the stock.
The analysis conducted for the September 2020 NOPD was based on the same model specification used for the May 2012 final rule and incorporated additional shipments data provided by AHRI in response to the July 2019 ECS
RFI. 85 FR 57149, 5715557156. Based on the shipments data, the DOE
September 2020 NOPD analysis indicated declining future shipments for WCUACs and ECUACs with cooling capacity less than 65,000 Btu/h.
Table III.2 presents the historical shipments for WCUACs from the May 2012 final rule 19842009 along with historical shipments in the following years as provided by AHRI 20102018.
As shown in Table III.2 for the small and large WCUACs, shipments starting in 2009 are lower than in prior years.
The very large WCUAC shipments fell in the years immediately following 2008, and while the shipments have rebounded, they did not rebound to the highest shipment levels seen previously.
TABLE III.2HISTORICAL SHIPMENTS DATA FOR WCUACS
Small AC
water-cooled <64.9 kBtu/h
Year
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Small AC
water-cooled 65 to 134.9
kBtu/h
91
119
84
95
59
54
52
44
45
39
1437
1503
1107
1068
985
922
1121
1217
989
795
874
1478
606
502
390
447
177
316
359
282
152
139
209
230
198
216
137
105
62
106
Large AC
water-cooled 135 to 249
kBtu/h 793
779
621
537
520
504
493
652
522
623
477
1621
409
355
287
291
188
278
317
311
182
186
180
137
164
114
147
154
128
108
Very large AC
water-cooled 250 kBtu/h 1622
1211
908
720
668
815
805
1020
1216
1886
898
1170
762
1227
740
711
861
1231
1231
1390
585
531
609
624
751
829
770
946
985
844
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with RULES1
Data for 19892009 from the May 2012 Final Rule. This data does not include WCUACs with cooling capacity less than 65,000 Btu/h because this class was not included in that rulemaking. Data for 20092018 provided by AHRI in response to the July 2019 ECS RFI.
DOE developed two shipment projections for the September 2020
NOPD analysis; one based on historical trends and one that held shipments constant at the 2018 shipment level referred to as 2019 trend and 2019
constant, respectively. 85 FR 57149, 5715557156. The 2019 trend and 2019
constant projections are compared to projections from the May 2012 final rule that were based on the historical trends and fixed at the level of the 2009
shipments referred to as 2012 trend
and 2012 constant, respectively. This comparison is shown in Table III.3 of this document.
DOE was unable to identify shipments data for the ECUAC equipment classes and none were provided by the stakeholders. For the September 2020
NOPD analysis, shipment projections were developed by scaling the WCUAC
shipment projections using a ratio of unique model counts for each equipment class. 85 FR 57149, 57155.
For the small cooling capacity less than
65,000 Btu/h ECUAC class of products, the shipment projection was further adjusted by a factor of 0.5 to better reflect the approximate size of the market in the mid-2000s.11 Id.
WCUACs are typically sold as part of a large project i.e., a multi-tenant, multi-story office building. To account for shipments being a function of large office construction, DOE also developed a third projection for the very large WCUAC equipment class, using a regression analysis with historical data
10 DOE uses data on manufacturing shipments as a proxy for national sales, as aggregate data on sales are lacking. In general, one would expect a close correspondence between shipments and sales.
11 Pacific Gas and Electric Company; Emerging Technologies Program, Application Assessment Report 0605. Evaluation of the Freus Residential Evaporative Condenser System in PG&E Service
Territory. https www.etcc-ca.com/sites/default/
files/OLD/images/stories/pdf/ETCC_Report_464.pdf accessed December 18, 2019.
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