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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 132 / Wednesday, July 14, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
AHRI and do not report their shipments to AHRI. UCA further stated that it sold 40 units in the WCUAC <64.9 kBtu/h category in 2018, while the table shows only 39 total units shipped in that year.
UCA suggested the number could be 10
times higher and asserted similar discrepancies could apply across all categories. UCA, No. 11 at p. 1
In the July 2019 ECS RFI, DOE
requested data on shipments, and in response to the RFI, DOE received shipments data from AHRI. In the September 2020 NOPD, DOE presented the shipments information received to that point. In addition, DOE requested comments and data concerning the tentative determination and the underlying data and analyses. The previously discussed number of shipments provided by UCA 40 units only applies for a single manufacturer for a single equipment class of WCUAC <65,000 Btu/h equipment for a single year. Because this was a single data point, DOE lacked sufficient context to incorporate it into the shipment analysis e.g., how this data point compares to UCAs shipments in previous years, how this compares to UCAs shipments for other WCUAC capacity ranges.
Without such context DOE could not incorporate this data point. For this Final Determination, DOE did not identify any other sources of shipments data beyond the AHRI data incorporated in the September 2020 NOPD analyses.
UCA also disagreed with shipment trends showing a decline in WCUACs over the next 20-plus years, as it stated that there are thousands of WCUACs that will be replaced over the next decade in the very large WCUAC class.
UCA, No. 11 at p. 1 UCA also commented that its sales for its main equipment line has gone down substantially, and that the equipment capacities it now offers are more
limited. UCA, No. 11112 at p. 1 For this final determination, the three shipment projections developed by DOE
were based on the historic shipments data available and presented in the September 2020 NOPD, and as historical data they would include any replacement shipments that have taken place. As additional shipments data were not provided to support UCAs assertion regarding replacement of WCUACs over the next decade, DOE did not modify the shipment projections.
Trane commented that there was a major drop in unitary air conditioner shipments that also affected WCUACs and ECUACs during the great recession of 2008?, so looking forward 1520
years, the market should also reflect that drop because there will not be units to replace. Public Webinar Transcript, No.
10 at p. 15 Daikin commented that the need for office space likely will be declining for the foreseeable future stating that it was informed by one office building client that the client will only need about 70 percent of its current square footage going forward. Public Webinar Transcript, No. 10 at p. 11
As stated, DOE did not receive additional shipments data in response to the September 2020 NOPD. As such, DOE relied on the shipments data presented in the September 2020 NOPD
for this final determination. Based on the existing shipments data, DOE
developed a series of shipment projections to reflect uncertainty in the future of ECUAC and WCUAC
shipments. As presented in the September 2020 NOPD, DOE developed three shipment projections 2019
trend, 2019 constant, and 2019
regression. DOE continued to rely on the 2019 trend, 2019 constant, and 2019
regression projections presented in September 2020 NOPD for this final determination. Additionally, DOE

performed a sensitivity case to reflect a potential underreporting of ECUAC and WCUAC shipments. DOE developed a sensitivity analysis by multiplying the three shipment projections by 10 for all equipment classes to examine an upper bound estimate for potentially unreported shipments. The results of the sensitivity analysis are presented in section III.C.3 of this document.
2. Model Counts Prior to receipt of updated shipments from AHRI in response to the July 2019
ECS RFI, DOE conducted a review of the market for WCUACs and ECUACs based on models included in the DOE CCMS
database.9 84 FR 36480, 36484. In the September 2020 NOPD DOE provided that the number of ECUAC and WCUAC
models on the market is substantially less than the number of ACUAC models on the market for all capacity ranges, and that this is consistent with the relationship between model counts identified in the May 2012 final rule. 85
FR 57149, 57156. This initial understanding of the ECUAC and WCUAC market as compared to the ACUAC market was further supported by the shipments data provided by AHRI. See discussion in section III.C.1
of this document. DOE did not receive any comments on the model counts presented in the September 2020 NOPD.
3. Current Market Efficiency Distributions For the September 2020 NOPD, DOE
examined the efficiency ratings of ECUACs and WCUACs currently on the market and presented efficiency distributions to reflect the current market. 85 FR 57149, 5715757159.
Table III.4 presents the summary of statistics by equipment category and capacity range of equipment for unique models13 from DOEs CCMS Database.9

TABLE III.4CURRENT MARKET EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR WCUACS AND ECUAC
EER
Number of unique models
Cooling capacity range Btu/h
Average cooling capacity Btu/h
Minimum
Average
Maximum
Current Federal EER
Standard Level

Water-Cooled Air Conditioners
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with RULES1

<65,000
65,000 and <135,000
135,000 and <240,000
240,000 and <760,000

12 A hyphenated comment number indicates that the specific comment referenced is found in an attachment accompanying the comment submitted by the commenter. The number following the
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58,000
99,478
175,600
493,556

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13 The count of unique models excludes basic models that appear to be duplicatesi.e., basic models sharing the same manufacturer and certified
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cooling capacity and EER ratings. For basic models that had multiple individual models certified with different capacities and different EER ratings, the individual models were considered to be unique models.

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