Diario Oficial de la Unión Europea del 7/11/2022 - Comunicaciones e Informaciones
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Source: Diario Oficial de la Unión Europea - Comunicaciones e Informaciones
EN
7.11.2022
Official Journal of the European Union
C 423/1
I
Resolutions, recommendations and opinions
RECOMMENDATIONS
EUROPEAN SYSTEMIC RISK BOARD
WARNING OF THE EUROPEAN SYSTEMIC RISK BOARD
of 22 September 2022
on vulnerabilities in the Union financial system ESRB/2022/7
2022/C 423/01
THE GENERAL BOARD OF THE EUROPEAN SYSTEMIC RISK BOARD,
Having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, Having regard to the Agreement on the European Economic Area 1, in particular Annex IX thereof, Having regard to Regulation EU No 1092/2010 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 24 November 2010 on European Union macro-prudential oversight of the financial system and establishing a European Systemic Risk Board 2, and in particular Article 32c and Articles 16 and 18 thereof, Having regard to Decision ESRB/2011/1 of the European Systemic Risk Board of 20 January 2011 adopting the Rules of Procedure of the European Systemic Risk Board 3, and in particular Article 18 thereof, Whereas:
1
The Unions financial system has proved to be resilient so far to increasing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. However, the probability of tail-risk scenarios materialising has increased since the beginning of 2022
and has been exacerbated by recent geopolitical developments. Risks to financial stability may materialise simultaneously, thereby interacting with each other and amplifying each others impact. Rising geopolitical tensions have led to an increase in energy prices, causing financial distress to businesses and households that are still recovering from the adverse economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, higher-than-expected inflation is tightening financial conditions.
2
These developments weigh on the Unions macroeconomic outlook. Gross domestic product GDP growth forecasts have been revised downwards for 2023 and the probability of a recession during the winter of 2022/2023 has increased. Downside risks differ across Member States, in particular on account of their varying degree of dependence on energy imports from Russia and the diverging energy-intensity of production chains. Overall, the probability of a materialisation of tail-risk scenarios hinges on a further escalation of geopolitical tensions; the extent and duration of the economic downturn; and the persistence of high inflation.
1 OJ L 1, 3.1.1994, p. 3.
2 OJ L 331, 15.12.2010, p. 1.
3 OJ C 58, 24.2.2011, p. 4.
