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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 203 / Monday, October 25, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
potential energy conservation standards for MHLFs. The effect of new or amended energy conservation standards on individual customers usually involves a reduction in operating cost and an increase in purchase cost. DOE
used the following two metrics to measure customer impacts:
b The LCC is the total customer expense of equipment over the life of that equipment, consisting of total installed cost manufacturer selling price, distribution chain markups, sales tax, and installation costs plus operating costs expenses for energy use, maintenance, and repair. To compute the operating costs, DOE discounts future operating costs to the time of purchase and sums them over the lifetime of the equipment.
b The PBP is the estimated amount of time in years it takes customers to recover the increased purchase cost including installation of a moreefficient equipment through lower operating costs. DOE calculates the PBP
by dividing the change in purchase cost at higher efficiency levels by the change in annual operating cost for the year that amended or new standards are assumed to take effect.
For any given efficiency level, DOE
measured the change in LCC relative to the LCC in the no-new-standards case, which reflects the estimated efficiency distribution of MHLFs in the absence of new or amended energy conservation standards. In contrast, the PBP for a given efficiency level is measured relative to the baseline equipment.
For each considered efficiency level in each equipment class, DOE
calculated the LCC and PBP for a nationally representative set of building types. As stated previously, DOE
developed customer samples from the 2015 LMC. For each sample customer, DOE determined the energy consumption for the MHLF and the
appropriate electricity price. By developing a representative sample of building types, the analysis captured the variability in energy consumption and energy prices associated with the use of MHLFs.
Inputs to the calculation of total installed cost include the cost of the equipmentwhich includes MPCs, manufacturer markups, retailer and distributor markups, and sales taxes and installation costs. Inputs to the calculation of operating expenses include annual energy consumption, energy prices and price projections, repair and maintenance costs, equipment lifetimes, and discount rates.
DOE created distributions of values for operating hours, equipment lifetime, discount rates, electricity prices, and sales taxes, with probabilities attached to each value, to account for their uncertainty and variability. For example, DOE created a probability distribution of annual energy consumption in its energy use analysis, based in part on a range of annual operating hours. The operating hour distributions capture variations across building types, lighting applications, and metal halide systems for three sectors commercial, industrial, and outdoor stationary. In contrast, fixture MSPs were specific to the representative designs evaluated in DOEs engineering analysis, and price markups were based on limited, publicly available financial data. Consequently, DOE used discrete values instead of distributions for these inputs.
The computer model DOE uses to calculate the LCC and PBP, which incorporates Crystal BallTM a commercially available software program, relies on a Monte Carlo simulation to incorporate uncertainty and variability into the analysis. The Monte Carlo simulations randomly sample input values from the
probability distributions and MHLF user samples. The model calculated the LCC
and PBP for equipment at each efficiency level for 10,000 customers per simulation run. The analytical results include a distribution of 10,000 data points showing the range of LCC savings for a given efficiency level relative to the no-new-standards case efficiency distribution. In performing an iteration of the Monte Carlo simulation for a given consumer, product efficiency is chosen based on its probability. If the chosen product efficiency is greater than or equal to the efficiency of the standard level under consideration, the LCC and PBP calculation reveals that a consumer is not impacted by the standard level.
By accounting for consumers who already purchase more-efficient products, DOE avoids overstating the potential benefits from increasing product efficiency.
DOE calculated the LCC and PBP for all customers of MHLFs as if each were to purchase new equipment in the expected year of required compliance with new or amended standards. Any amended standards would apply to MHLFs manufactured three years after the date on which any new or amended standard is published. 42 U.S.C.
6295hh3B At this time, DOE
estimates publication of a final determination in the latter half of 2021.
Therefore, for purposes of its analysis, DOE used 2025 as the first year of compliance with any amended standards for MHLFs.
Table IV.16 summarizes the approach and data DOE used to derive inputs to the LCC and PBP calculations. The subsections that follow provide further discussion. Details of the spreadsheet model, and of all the inputs to the LCC
and PBP analyses, are contained in chapter 8 of the final determination TSD
and its appendices.

TABLE IV.16SUMMARY OF INPUTS AND METHODS FOR THE LCC AND PBP ANALYSIS
Inputs
Source/method
Equipment Cost

Derived by multiplying MSPs by distribution channel markups taken from the 2014 MHLF final rule and sales tax.
Used the same installation costs as in the 2014 MHLF final rule, but inflated to 2020$. The 2014 MHLF
final rule costs were calculated using estimated labor times and applicable labor rates from RS
Means Electrical Cost Data 2013, Sweets Electrical Cost Guide 2013, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The total annual energy use multiplied by the operating hours per year, which were determined separately for indoor and outdoor fixtures. Average number of hours based on the 2015 LMC.
Electricity: Based on Edison Electric Institute data for 2019.
Variability: Regional energy prices determined for 13 census divisions and large states.
Based on AEO 2021 price projections.
Used the same labor and material costs for lamp and ballast replacements as in the 2014 MHLF final rule, but inflated to 2020$.
Ballasts: Assumed an average of 50,000 hours for magnetic ballasts and 40,000 hours for electronic ballasts.
Fixtures: Assumed an average of 20 years for indoor fixtures and 25 years for outdoor fixtures.

Installation Costs

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Annual Energy Use
Energy Prices
Energy Price Trends
Replacement Costs
Equipment Lifetime

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