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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 154 / Friday, August 13, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
is up from the 522,818 pounds of salable oil carried into the 20202021
marketing year and well above the level that the Committee generally considers favorable.
Further, the Committee estimates that there will be 1,130,264 pounds of Native spearmint oil in the reserve pool at the beginning of the 20212022 marketing year. This figure is 49,256 pounds lower than the quantity of reserve pool oil held by producers on June 1, 2020, but is still higher than the level that the Committee believes is optimal. This modest decline in the reserve oil reverses the recent trend of gradual increases that the industry has experienced over the past several marketing years.
The Committee expects end users of Native spearmint oil to continue to rely on Far West production as their primary source of high-quality Native spearmint oil. Overseas production of Native spearmint has declined in recent years.
As a result, U.S. exports of Native spearmint oil have been increasing since 2018. However, the increase in domestic production from other states outside the Far West region has more than offset the decline in foreign production of Native spearmint oil. For instance, production of Native spearmint oil in the U.S.
Midwest region has spiked in recent years, rising from fewer than 2,000 acres in 2016 to approximately 5,500 acres in 2020. Additionally, the sharp increase in demand for Native spearmint experienced during the 20172018
marketing year has tapered off in recent years. These factors have contributed to declining trade demand for Far West Native spearmint oil and led to downward pressure on producer prices.
The Committee chose to be cautiously optimistic in the establishment of its trade demand estimate for the 2021
2022 marketing year to ensure that the market will be adequately supplied. At the October 14, 2020, meeting, the Committee estimated the 20212022
marketing year Native spearmint oil trade demand to be 1,125,000 pounds.
This figure is based on input provided by producers at nine production area meetings held in early October 2020, as well as estimates provided by handlers and other meeting participants. This figure represents an increase of 65,833
pounds from the previous years revised trade demand estimate. The average estimated trade demand for Native spearmint oil derived from the area producer meetings was 1,105,556
pounds, whereas the handlers estimates ranged from 900,000 to 1,300,000
pounds. The average of Native spearmint oil sales over the last three years was 1,295,832 pounds. The
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quantity marketed over the most recent full marketing year, 20192020, was 1,076,906 pounds.
The estimated June 1, 2021, carry-in of 694,137 pounds of Native spearmint oil, plus the recommended 20212022
marketing year salable quantity of 938,397 pounds, results in an estimated total available supply of 1,632,534
pounds of Native spearmint oil during the 20212022 marketing year. With the corresponding estimated trade demand of 1,125,000 pounds, the Committee projects that 507,534 pounds of oil will be carried into the 20222023 marketing year, resulting in a year-over-year decrease of 186,603 pounds. The Committee estimates that there will be 1,130,264 pounds of Native spearmint oil held in the reserve pool at the beginning of the 20212022 marketing year. Should the industry experience an unexpected increase in trade demand, oil in the Native spearmint oil reserve pool could be released through an intraseasonal increase to satisfy that demand.
The Committee recommended a producer allotment percentage of 37
percent for the 20212022 marketing year. During its October 14, 2020, meeting, the Committee calculated an initial producer allotment percentage of 17 percent by dividing the minimum required salable quantity to satisfy estimated trade demand 430,863
pounds by the total allotment base 2,536,208 pounds. However, producers and handlers at the meeting expressed that the computed percentage of 17
percent may not adequately supply the potential 20212022 Native spearmint oil market demand or result in adequate carry-in for the subsequent marketing year. After deliberation, the Committee increased the recommended allotment percentage to 37 percent. The total estimated allotment base 2,536,208
pounds for the 20212022 marketing year multiplied by the recommended salable allotment percentage 37
percent yields 938,397 pounds, the recommended salable quantity for the year.
The 20212022 marketing year computational data for the Committees recommendations is further outlined below.
A Estimated carry-in of Native spearmint oil on June 1, 2021: 694,137
pounds. This figure is the difference between the revised 20202021
marketing year total available supply of 1,753,304 pounds and the revised 2020
2021 marketing year estimated trade demand of 1,059,167 pounds.
B Estimated trade demand of Native spearmint oil for the 20212022
marketing year: 1,125,000 pounds. This estimate was established by the
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Committee at the October 14, 2020, meeting.
C Salable quantity of Native spearmint oil required from the 2021
2022 marketing year production:
430,863 pounds. This figure is the difference between the estimated 2021
2022 marketing year estimated trade demand 1,125,000 pounds and the estimated carry-in on June 1, 2021
694,137 pounds. This is the minimum amount of Native spearmint oil that the Committee believes will be required to meet the anticipated 20212022
marketing year trade demand.
D Total estimated allotment base of Native spearmint oil for the 20212022
marketing year: 2,536,208 pounds. This figure represents a one-percent increase over the 20202021 total actual allotment base of 2,511,097 pounds as prescribed in 985.153. The onepercent increase equals 25,111 pounds of oil. This estimate is revised each year on June 1, due to adjustments resulting from the bona fide effort production provisions of 985.53e.
E Computed Native spearmint oil allotment percentage for the 20212022
marketing year: 17 percent. This percentage is calculated by dividing the required salable quantity 430,863
pounds by the total estimated allotment base 2,536,208 pounds for the 2021
2022 marketing year.
F Recommended Native spearmint oil allotment percentage for the 2021
2022 marketing year: 37 percent. This is the Committees recommendation based on the computed allotment percentage 17 percent and input from producers and handlers at the October 14, 2020, meeting. The recommended 37 percent allotment percentage is also based on the Committees belief that the computed percentage 17 percent may not adequately supply the potential market for Native spearmint oil in the 20212022 marketing year or allow for salable Native spearmint oil to be carried into the beginning of the 2022
2023 marketing year.
G Recommended Native spearmint oil 20212022 marketing year salable quantity: 938,397 pounds. This figure is the product of the recommended allotment percentage 37 percent and the total estimated allotment base 2,536,208 pounds.
H Estimated available supply of Native spearmint oil for the 20212022
marketing year: 1,632,534 pounds. This figure is the sum of the 20212022
recommended salable quantity 938,397
pounds and the estimated carry-in on June 1, 2021 694,137 pounds. This amount could be increased, as needed, through an intra-seasonal increase in the
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