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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 154 / Friday, August 13, 2021 / Rules and Regulations quantity that the Committee generally considers favorable 150,000 pounds.
However, the Committee believes that, given the current economic conditions in the Scotch spearmint oil industry, some Scotch spearmint oil producers may not produce enough oil in the 20212022 marketing year to fill all of their annual allotment. The Committee estimates that as much as 245,352
pounds of 20202021 marketing year annual allotment may not be filled by producers. While the Committee has not projected unused base allotment for the 20212022 marketing year and did not incorporate this factor in its recommendation, it anticipates that the actual quantity of Scotch spearmint oil carried into the following marketing year will be significantly less than the quantity calculated above 487,260
pounds.
Spearmint oil held in reserve is oil that has been produced in excess of a producers marketing year allotment and is not available to the market in the current marketing year without an increase in the salable quantity and allotment percentage. Oil held in the reserve pool is another indicator of excess supply. Scotch spearmint oil held in the reserve pool was 67,645
pounds as of May 31, 2020, down from 132,984 pounds as of May 31, 2019.
However, the Scotch spearmint oil reserve is expected to rebound slightly to an estimated 83,608 pounds by the end of the 20202021 marketing year.
This quantity of reserve pool oil should be an adequate buffer to supply the market, if necessary, should the industry experience an unexpected increase in demand.
The Committee recommended an allotment percentage of 38 percent for the 20212022 marketing year for Scotch spearmint oil. During its October 14, 2020, meeting, the Committee calculated an initial allotment percentage by dividing the minimum required salable quantity 359,424
pounds by the total estimated allotment base 2,228,116 pounds, resulting in 16.1 percent. However, producers and handlers at the meeting indicated that the computed percentage 16.1 percent might not adequately supply potential 20212022 Scotch spearmint oil market demand and may also result in a less than desirable carry-in for the subsequent marketing year. After deliberation, the Committee increased the recommended allotment percentage to 38 percent. The total estimated allotment base 2,228,116 pounds for the 20212022 marketing year, multiplied by the recommended salable allotment percentage 38 percent, yields 846,684 pounds, which is the
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recommended salable quantity for the 20212022 marketing year.
The 20212022 marketing year computational data for the Committees recommendations is detailed below.
A Estimated carry-in of Scotch spearmint oil on June 1, 2021: 263,576
pounds. This figure is the difference between the 20202021 marketing year total available supply of 867,576 pounds and the 20202021 marketing year estimated trade demand of 604,000
pounds. The estimated 20202021
marketing year trade demand was revised down from the original estimate of 750,000 pounds by the Committee at its October 14, 2020, meeting.
B Estimated trade demand of Scotch spearmint oil for the 20212022
marketing year: 623,000 pounds. This figure was established at the Committee meeting held on October 14, 2020.
C Salable quantity of Scotch spearmint oil required from the 2021
2022 marketing year production:
359,424 pounds. This figure is the difference between the estimated 2021
2022 marketing year trade demand 623,000 pounds and the estimated carry-in on June 1, 2021 263,576
pounds. This salable quantity represents the minimum amount of Scotch spearmint oil that may be needed to satisfy estimated demand for the coming year.
D Total estimated Scotch spearmint oil allotment base for the 20212022
marketing year: 2,228,116 pounds. This figure represents a one-percent increase over the 20202021 total actual allotment base of 2,206,055 pounds, as prescribed by 985.153. The onepercent increase equals 22,061 pounds.
This total estimated allotment base is revised each year on June 1 in accordance with 985.53e.
E Computed Scotch spearmint oil allotment percentage for the 20212022
marketing year: 16.1 percent. This percentage is computed by dividing the minimum required salable quantity 359,424 pounds by the total estimated allotment base 2,228,116 pounds.
F Recommended Scotch spearmint oil allotment percentage for the 2021
2022 marketing year: 38 percent. This is the Committees recommendation and is based on the computed allotment percentage 16.1 percent and input from producers and handlers at the October 14, 2020, meeting. The recommended 38 percent allotment percentage reflects the Committees belief that the computed percentage 16.1 percent may not adequately supply the anticipated 20212022
marketing year Scotch spearmint oil market demand.

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G Recommended Scotch spearmint oil salable quantity for the 20212022
marketing year: 846,684 pounds. This figure is the product of the recommended salable allotment percentage 38 percent and the total estimated allotment base 2,228,116
pounds for the 20212022 marketing year.
H Estimated total available supply of Scotch spearmint oil for the 2021
2022 marketing year: 1,110,260 pounds.
This figure is the sum of the 20212022
marketing year recommended salable quantity 846,684 pounds and the estimated carry-in on June 1, 2021
263,576 pounds.
For the reasons stated above, the Committee believes that the recommended salable quantity and allotment percentage will adequately satisfy trade demand, will result in a reasonable carry-in for the following year, and will contribute to the orderly marketing of Scotch spearmint oil.
Native Spearmint Oil The Committee recommended a Native spearmint oil salable quantity of 938,397 pounds and an allotment percentage of 37 percent for the 2021
2022 marketing year. These figures are, respectively, 292,089 pounds and 12
percentage points lower than the levels established for the 20202021 marketing year. The Committee utilized handlers estimated trade demand of Native spearmint oil for the coming year, historical and current Native spearmint oil production, inventory statistics, and international market data obtained from consultants for the spearmint oil industry to arrive at these recommendations.
The Committee anticipates that 2021
Native spearmint oil production will total 1,181,230 pounds, down substantially from the previous years production of 1,493,686 pounds.
Committee records show an estimated 7,957 acres of Native spearmint production in the Far West in 2020
compared to an estimated 9,013 acres of Native spearmint production in 2019.
Sales of Native spearmint oil have also been declining, falling from a high of 1,565,515 pounds in the 20172018
marketing year to 1,076,906 pounds over the 20192020 marketing year, the last full year of reported sales. The Committee estimates that trade demand for Native spearmint oil will be 1,059,167 pounds for the 20202021
marketing year, well below the 5-year sales average of 1,283,266 pounds.
The Committee expects that 694,137
pounds of salable Native spearmint oil from prior years will be carried into the 20212022 marketing year. This amount
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