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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 109 / Wednesday, June 9, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
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First, we considered whether the Neuse River waterdog is presently in danger of extinction and determined that proposing endangered status is not appropriate. The current conditions as assessed in the Neuse River waterdog SSA report show that the species exists in nine MUs over three different populations river systems over a majority 65 percent of the species historical range. The Neuse River waterdog still exhibits representation across both physiographic regions, and extant populations remain across the range. In short, while the primary threats are currently acting on the species and many of those threats are expected to continue into the future, we did not find that the species is currently in danger of extinction throughout all of its range. However, according to our assessment of plausible future scenarios, the species is likely to become an endangered species in the foreseeable future throughout all of its range. Fifty years was considered foreseeable in this case because it included projections from both available models, and Neuse River waterdogs are a long-lived and slow-growing species. We can reliably predict both the future threats and the species responses to those threats over 50 years as presented in the models of predicted urbanization and climate change.
As discussed above, the range of plausible future scenarios of Neuse River waterdog habitat conditions and population factors suggest reduced viability into the future. Both the Optimistic and Opportunistic scenarios were determined to be unlikely in the analysis, while the most likely scenarios were Status Quo and Pessimistic. Under either of these more likely scenarios, resiliency is low in most of the remaining populations, and many populations are likely extirpated so that redundancy and representation are significantly reduced.
This expected reduction in both the number and distribution of resilient populations is likely to make the species vulnerable to catastrophic disturbance.
Accordingly, we find the Neuse River waterdog warrants listing as threatened because it is likely to become in danger of extinction within the foreseeable future throughout all of its range.
Neuse River Waterdog: Status Throughout a Significant Portion of Its Range Under the Act and our implementing regulations, a species may warrant listing if it is in danger of extinction or likely to become so in the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range. The court in Center
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for Biological Diversity v. Everson, 2020
WL 437289 D.D.C. Jan. 28, 2020
Center for Biological Diversity, vacated the aspect of the Final Policy on Interpretation of the Phrase Significant Portion of Its Range in the Endangered Species Acts Definitions of Endangered Species and Threatened Species 79 FR 37578; July 1, 2014
that provided that the Service does not undertake an analysis of significant portions of a species range if the species warrants listing as threatened throughout all of its range. Therefore, we proceed to evaluate whether the species is endangered in any significant portion of its rangethat is, whether there is any portion of the species range for which both 1 the portion is significant; and 2 the species is in danger of extinction in that portion.
Depending on the case, it might be more efficient for us to address the significance question or the status question first. We can choose to address either question first. Regardless of which question we address first, if we reach a negative answer with respect to the first question that we address, we do not need to evaluate the other question for that portion of the species range.
Following the courts holding in Center for Biological Diversity, we now consider whether there are any significant portions of the species range where the species is in danger of extinction now i.e., endangered. In undertaking this analysis for Neuse River waterdog, we choose to address the status question firstwe consider information pertaining to the geographic distribution of both the species and the threats that the species faces to identify any portions of the range where the species is endangered.
For the Neuse River waterdog, we considered whether the threats are geographically concentrated in any portion of the species range at a biologically meaningful scale. We examined the following threats:
Declines in water quality, loss of stream flow, riparian and instream fragmentation, deterioration of instream habitats, and cumulative effects. We found a concentration of threats in the Trent River basin and the Upper and Middle Neuse River portions of the Neuse River waterdogs range. The species has experienced declines throughout its range, but most notably in the Piedmont portions of the upper and Middle Neuse River basin and the southern portion of its range, the Trent River basin.
The Neuse River waterdog population in the Trent has experienced a 67
percent decline in redundancy, with overall very low resiliency currently.

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Agriculture practices and CAFOs, numerous in the southeastern coastal plain of North Carolina, particularly in the Trent River basin, contribute to poor water quality and fragmented or deteriorated instream habitats, influencing resiliency of Neuse River waterdogs in this portion of the range.
The waterdog populations in the Upper and Middle Neuse basin also exhibit current low resiliency with only a 10 to 30 percent probability of species persistence. Exceptionally high development pressure from the expanding Triangle Region of central North Carolina has contributed to declines in water quality, loss of stream flow, fragmentation of riparian and instream habitats, and overall deterioration of instream habitat for the Neuse River waterdog.
Since these management units have seen populations reduced to very low condition, this circumstancein combination with the other threats acting on the species throughout its rangemay indicate that there is a concentration of threats in these basins such that the species may be in danger of extinction in these portions of the range.
Small, isolated populations often exhibit reduced levels of genetic variability, which diminishes the species capacity to adapt and respond to environmental changes, thereby decreasing the probability of long-term persistence. Small populations may experience reduced reproductive vigor, for example, due to inbreeding depression. Isolated individuals may have difficulty reproducing. The problems associated with small population size and vulnerability to random demographic fluctuations or natural catastrophes are further magnified by synergistic interactions with other threats, such as those discussed above. Based on our review of information and the synergistic effects of threats exacerbated by the very lowcondition populations in the Trent, Upper Neuse, and Middle Neuse basins, we find that there is information that the populations in these basins may be in danger of extinction.
Because we have determined that the Trent, Upper Neuse, and Middle Neuse basins are portions of the range that may be in danger of extinction, we next evaluate whether those portions of the range may be significant. As an initial note, the Services most recent definition of significant within agency policy guidance has been invalidated by court order see Desert Survivors v. Dept of the Interior, No.
16cv01165 N.D. Cal. Aug. 24, 2018.
Therefore, for purposes of this analysis,
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