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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 109 / Wednesday, June 9, 2021 / Rules and Regulations remaining populations, but one of those populations Neuse is characterized by very low resiliency. Once known to occupy streams in two physiographic regions, the species has also lost substantial physiographic representation with an estimated 44
percent loss in Piedmont watersheds and an estimated 86 percent loss in Coastal Plain watersheds. The one moderately resilient population Tar was determined not to be sufficient for the species to withstand catastrophic events, nor is it sufficient to enable the species to maintain adaptive capacity.
Therefore resiliency, redundancy, and representation are all at levels that put the species at risk of extinction throughout its range now. We conclude that the species is currently in danger of extinction throughout all of its range.
Because the species is already in danger of extinction throughout its range, a threatened status is not appropriate.
Carolina Madtom: Status Throughout a Significant Portion of Its Range Under the Act and our implementing regulations, a species may warrant listing if it is in danger of extinction or likely to become so in the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range. We have determined that the Carolina madtom is in danger of extinction throughout all of its range, and accordingly, did not undertake an analysis of any significant portions of its range. Because we have determined that the Carolina madtom warrants listing as endangered throughout all of its range, our determination is consistent with the decision in Center for Biological Diversity v. Everson, 2020 WL 437289
D.D.C. Jan. 28, 2020, in which the court vacated the aspect of the Final Policy on Interpretation of the Phrase Significant Portion of Its Range in the Endangered Species Acts Definitions of Endangered Species and Threatened Species 79 FR 37578; July 1, 2014
that provided the Service does not undertake an analysis of significant portions of a species range if the species warrants listing as threatened throughout all of its range.

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Carolina Madtom Determination of Status Our review of the best available scientific and commercial information indicates that the Carolina madtom meets the Acts definition of an endangered species. Therefore, we are listing the Carolina madtom as an endangered species in accordance with sections 36 and 4a1 of the Act.

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Neuse River Waterdog: Status Throughout All of Its Range The historical range of the Neuse River waterdog likely included all third and fourth order streams and rivers throughout the Tar-Pamlico, Neuse, and Trent drainages, with documented historical distribution in nine MUs within three populations. Of those nine occupied MUs, two 22 percent are estimated to have high resiliency, two 22 percent moderate resiliency, and five 56 percent low resiliency. Scaling up from the MU to the population level, one of three populations the Tar population is estimated to have moderate resiliency, and two the Neuse and Trent populations are characterized by low resiliency. In short, 60 percent of streams that were once part of the species range are estimated to be in low condition or likely extirpated. The species is known to occupy streams in two physiographic regions, but it has lost physiographic representation with an estimated 43
percent loss in Piedmont watersheds and an estimated 13 percent loss in Coastal Plain watersheds.
The Neuse River waterdog faces threats from declines in water quality, loss of stream flow, riparian and instream fragmentation, and deterioration of instream habitats Factor A. These threats are expected to be exacerbated by continued urbanization Factor A and effects of climate change Factor E. Given current and future decreases in resiliency, populations become more vulnerable to extirpation from stochastic events, in turn, resulting in concurrent losses in representation and redundancy. The range of plausible future scenarios of Neuse River waterdog habitat conditions and population factors suggest reduced viability into the future. Under Scenario 1, the Status Quo option, a loss of resiliency, representation, and redundancy is expected. Under this scenario, we predicted that no MUs would remain in high condition, two would be in moderate condition, four would be in low condition, and three MUs would be likely extirpated.
Redundancy would be reduced to four MUs in the Tar Population and two in the Neuse Population. Representation would also be reduced, primarily with reduced variability in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain.
Under scenario two, the Pessimistic option, we predicted substantial losses of resiliency, representation, and redundancy. Redundancy would be reduced to four MUs in one population, and the resiliency of that population is expected to be low. Five MUs were
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predicted to be extirpated, and, of the remaining four MUs, all would be in low condition. All measures of representation are predicted to decline under this scenario, leaving remaining Neuse River waterdog populations underrepresented in river basin and physiographic variability.
Under scenario three, the Optimistic option, we predicted slightly higher levels of resiliency, representation, and redundancy than were estimated under the Status Quo or Pessimistic options. Three MUs would be in high condition, one in moderate condition, and the remaining five would be in low condition. Despite predictions of population persistence in the Neuse and Trent River basins, these populations are expected to retain only low levels of resiliency; thus, levels of representation are also predicted to decline under this scenario.
Finally, under scenario four, the Opportunistic option, we predicted reduced levels of resiliency, representation, and redundancy. One MU would be in high condition, three would be in moderate condition, three would be in low condition, and two would be likely extirpated. Redundancy would be reduced with the loss of the Trent population. Under the Opportunistic scenario, representation is predicted to be reduced, with 67 percent of formerly occupied river basins remaining occupied and with reduced variability in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain physiographic regions. Both the Optimistic and Opportunistic scenarios were determined to be unlikely in the analysis, while the most likely scenarios were Status Quo and Pessimistic. Under either of these more likely scenarios, resiliency is low in most of the remaining populations, and many populations are likely extirpated so that redundancy and representation are significantly reduced.
This expected reduction in both the number and distribution of resilient populations is likely to make the species vulnerable to catastrophic disturbance.
After evaluating threats to the species and assessing the cumulative effect of the threats under the section 4a1
factors, we predict that the population and habitat factors used to determine the resiliency, representation, and redundancy for the Neuse River waterdog will continue to decline. Thus, after assessing the best available information, we conclude that the Neuse River waterdog is not currently in danger of extinction, but is likely to become in danger of extinction within the foreseeable future throughout all of its range.

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