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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 106 / Friday, June 4, 2021 / Proposed Rules TABLE II.1PROJECTED CFLK SHIPfan versus without a ceiling fan and the MENTS FROM THE JANUARY 2016 percent of CFLKs sold into the residential sector versus the commercial FINAL RULE
Millions of units 2017

2018

2019

2020

17.2

17.6

17.7

18.1

For further details regarding the prior shipments analysis, see chapter 9 of the January 2016 Final Rule TSD.
Issue 4: DOE seeks feedback on how the shipments in the years shown in Table II.1 compare to actual shipments of CFLKs in those years. DOE also requests data and information on historical shipments of CFLKs and/or suggestions for data sources to use.
Issue 5: DOE requests information on the percent of CFLKs sold with a ceiling
sector. DOE also requests feedback on whether these percentages have changed over time or whether they are expected to change in the future.
Issue 6: DOE requests information on any potential market trends that may affect future shipments of CFLKs and/or ceiling fans. DOE also seeks information regarding data that might reasonably and substantively inform the distribution forecast of efficacy levels for CFLKs.
3. National Impact Analysis The purpose of the national impact analysis NIA is to estimate the aggregate impacts of potential efficiency standards at the national level. DOE
evaluates the impacts of potential
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amended standards by comparing a nonew-standards-case projection with standards-case projections. The no-newstandards-case projection characterizes energy use and consumer costs in the absence of amended energy conservation standards, whereas the standards-case projections make the same characterizations while eliminating products from the market that dont meet the standard. DOE
develops market share distributions for CFLKs at each efficacy level EL in the no-new-standards case and each of the standards cases in its shipments analysis.
Table II.2 summarizes the inputs and methods DOE used in the NIA for the January 2016 Final Rule. See chapter 10
of the January 2016 Final Rule TSD for further details.

TABLE II.2SUMMARY OF INPUTS AND METHODS FOR THE NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS IN THE JANUARY 2016 FINAL
RULE
Inputs
Method
Shipments
No-new-standards Case Forecasted Efficacies Standards Case Forecasted Efficacies
Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

Annual shipments from shipments model.
Estimated by market-share module of shipments model including impact of SSL incursion.
Estimated by market-share module of shipments model including impact of SSL incursion.
Annual weighted-average values are a function of energy use at each EL, including impacts of replacing CFLK lamps over the CFLK lifetime.
Annual weighted-average values are a function of cost at each EL. Incorporates projection of future LED lamp prices based on historical data.
Annual weighted-average values as a function of the annual energy consumption per unit and energy prices.
Annual values do not change with EL. Replacement lamp costs are calculated for each EL
over the analysis period.
AEO 2015 forecasts to 2040 and extrapolation through 2048.
A time-series conversion factor based on AEO 2015.

Total Installed Cost per Unit
Annual Energy Cost per Unit
Repair and Maintenance Cost per Unit
Energy Prices
Energy Site-to-Primary and full fuel cycle FFC
Conversion.
Discount Rate

Issue 7: DOE requests whether the methodologies employed in the NIA for the January 2016 Final Rule remain appropriate. If not, DOE requests information and data on changes to the methodologies that should be considered.
Issue 8: DOE requests feedback on whether potential standards for CFLKs may cause consumers to purchase nonCFLK lighting products.
B. Product Classes When evaluating and establishing energy conservation standards, DOE
may divide covered products into product classes by the type of energy used, or by capacity or other performance-related features that justify a different standard. 42 U.S.C. 6295q In making a determination whether capacity or another performance-related feature justifies a different standard, DOE must consider such factors as the utility of the feature to the consumer
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Three and seven percent.

and other factors DOE deems appropriate. Id.
CFLKs manufactured on or after January 21, 2020, must be packaged with lamps to fill all sockets, and each basic model of lamp packaged with the basic model of CFLK and each basic model of integrated SSL in the CFLK
basic model must meet a minimum efficacy specified in lm/W that is determined based on the lumen output of the basic model of lamp or integrated SSL. 10 CFR 430.32s6. CFLKs are not separated into product classes for the purpose of the minimum efficacy requirement. For CFLKs with medium screw base sockets that are packaged with compact fluorescent lamps CFLs, the CFLs must meet specified lumen maintenance, rapid cycle stress, and lifetime requirements. 10 CFR
430.32s6i. CFLKs with pin base fluorescent lamps must use an electronic ballast. 10 CFR
430.32s6ii.

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Issue 9: DOE requests feedback on whether the current single product class for CFLKs under the minimum efficacy requirements is appropriate.
Specifically, DOE requests feedback on whether integrated SSL circuitry offers features not available in light emitting diode LED lamps that may be packaged with a CFLK and whether such features impact the efficacy of integrated SSLs as compared to LEDs if efficacy is impacted, please quantify the impact.
Issue 10: DOE seeks information regarding any new product classes it should consider for inclusion in its analysis. Specifically, DOE requests information on the performance-related features e.g., base type, lamp length, etc. that provide unique consumer utility and data detailing the corresponding impacts on efficacy that would justify separate product classes i.e., explanation for why the presence
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