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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 103 / Tuesday, June 1, 2021 / Proposed Rules
TABLE 11PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS AT THREE
LEVELS IN EACH LESSER PRAIRIE-CHICKEN ECOREGION AND RANGEWIDE
Projected wind developments Ecoregion Low
Intermediate
High
Short-Grass/CRP
Mixed-Grass
Sand Sagebrush

7
10
1

11
18
2

16
25
3

Northern DPS totals
Shinnery Oak Southern DPS

18
4

31
7

44
10

Rangewide Total

22

38

54

As outlined within Threats Influencing Current Condition, wind energy development also has indirect impacts on the lesser prairie-chicken.
To determine the number of acres impacted by wind energy development in the current condition, we analyzed wind energy facilities recently constructed within and near our analysis area. We applied a 5,900-ft 1,800-m impact radius to individual turbines to account for indirect impacts and found that the last 5 years show a substantial increase in the relative density of wind energy projects see
Service 2021, Appendix C, for further details. This analysis does not mean that all of the impacts occur to otherwise usable lesser prairie-chicken land cover. In fact, it is highly unlikely due to viable wind development potential outside lesser prairie-chicken usable areas that all projected impacts will occur in areas that are otherwise usable for the lesser prairie-chicken.
Because we cannot predict the precise location of future developments and to simplify and facilitate modeling the locations for future projections for wind development, we created a potential
wind energy development grid that was laid over the analysis area and which allowed the random placement for each development for each iteration Service 2021, p. 86. The resulting projected impacts in 25 years using the median iteration for each of the range of future scenarios are shown in Table 12.
Scenarios 1 and 5 were used to frame the scenarios used in our model as they represent the low and high of likely projected outcomes. The rangewide projections range from 164,100 ac 66,400 ha to 328,000 ac 133,000 ha.

TABLE 12RANGE OF PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE WIND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS INCLUDING BOTH DIRECT AND
INDIRECT EFFECTS IN ACRES FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS FOR SCENARIOS 1 AND 5 OF EACH LESSER PRAIRIE-CHICKEN ECOREGION AND RANGEWIDE
Projected wind development impacts acres
Ecoregion
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Scenario 1

Scenario 5

Short-Grass/CRP
Mixed-Grass
Sand Sagebrush

68,300
50,200
3,900

134,200
106,000
21,300

Northern DPS totals
Shinnery Oak Southern DPS

122,400
41,700

261,500
66,500

Rangewide Total

164,100

328,000

Electrical transmission capacity represents a major limitation on wind energy development in the Great Plains.
Additional transmission lines will be required to transport future electricity production to markets; thus, we expect an expansion of the current transmission capacity in the Great Plains. As this expansion occurs, these transmission lines will, depending on their location, result in habitat loss as well as further fragmentation and could also be the catalyst for additional wind development affecting the lesser prairiechicken. While we were able to analyze the current impacts of transmission lines on the lesser prairie-chicken, due to the lack of information available to
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project the location and thus effects to lesser prairie-chicken habitat, we could not quantify the future potential effect of habitat loss and fragmentation on the lesser prairie-chicken that could be caused by transmission line development. However, we do acknowledge potential habitat loss and fragmentation from transmission lines is likely to continue depending upon their location.
Woody Vegetation Encroachment Due to the past encroachment trends and continued suppression of fire across the range of the lesser prairie-chicken, we expect this encroachment of woody vegetation into grasslands to continue,
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which will result in further loss of lesser prairie-chicken habitat into the foreseeable future. The degree of future habitat impacts will depend on land management practices and the level of conservation efforts for woody vegetation removal.
To describe the potential future effects of encroachment of woody vegetation, we used available information regarding rates of increases in eastern red cedar and mesquite encroachment and applied this rate of change over the next 25 years to the amount of existing woody vegetation per ecoregion within the analysis area Appendix C. The estimated current condition analysis described in Threats
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