Federal Register - June 1, 2021
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Source: Federal Register
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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 103 / Tuesday, June 1, 2021 / Proposed Rules
benefits of alternative land use practices.
For the purposes of the SSA, we conducted an analysis to project the future rates of conversion of grassland to cropland at three different levels. We used information from aggregated remote sensing data from the USDA
Cropland Data layer Lark 2020, entire;
Service 2021, p. 83. Table 9 outlines the resulting three levels of projected habitat loss of future conversion of grassland to cultivated agriculture per ecoregion over the next 25 years. See the SSA report Service 2021, Appendix C
for further details and methodologies for these projections. While we do not
expect future rates of conversion from grassland to cropland to be equivalent to those we have historically witnessed, the limited amount of large intact grasslands due to the historical extent of conversion means all future impacts are expected to have a disproportionate scale of impact.
TABLE 9FUTURE PROJECTION OF THREE LEVELS OF IMPACTED ACRES OF POTENTIAL USABLE AREA FOR THE LESSER
PRAIRIE-CHICKEN FROM CONVERSION OF GRASSLAND TO CROPLAND OVER THE NEXT 25 YEARS IN EACH ECOREGION
Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
Projected impacts acres Ecoregion Low
Intermediate
High
Short-Grass/CRP
Mixed-Grass
Sand Sagebrush
Northern DPS totals
89,675
4,220
42,573
136,468
145,940
33,761
95,678
275,379
185,418
50,910
142,438
378,766
Shinnery Oak Southern DPS
21,985
51,410
93,946
Rangewide Total
158,454
326,789
472,712
Petroleum Production In the SSA report, we conducted an analysis to project the future rates of petroleum production at low, intermediate, and high levels. We compiled State well permitting spatial data from each State within each of the ecoregions to inform assumptions around future rates of development Service 2021, p. 84. We converted the projected number of new wells at the
three levels to acres of usable area impacted. Our analysis accounts for indirect impacts as well as potential overlap with other existing impacts to include colocation efforts by developers.
Table 10 represents the extent of potential usable area impacted at the three levels of development per ecoregion over the next 25 years. See the SSA report Service 2021, Appendix C
for further details and methodologies regarding these projections.
Given current trends in energy production, we anticipate that oil and gas production across the lesser prairiechicken range will continue to occur and that rates will vary both temporally and spatially. The rates of development will be dependent upon new exploration, advancements in technology, and socioeconomic dynamics that will influence energy markets in the future.
TABLE 10FUTURE PROJECTION OF THREE LEVELS OF IMPACTED ACRES INCLUDING BOTH DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL USABLE AREA FOR THE LESSER PRAIRIE-CHICKEN FROM OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 25 YEARS IN EACH ECOREGION
Numbers may not sum due to rounding.
Projected impacts acres
Ecoregion
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Low
Intermediate
High
Short-Grass/CRP
Mixed-Grass
Sand Sagebrush
Northern DPS totals
26,848
82,716
3,166
112,730
54,618
170,989
9,054
234,661
82,388
259,262
14,942
356,592
Shinnery Oak Southern DPS
136,539
190,144
243,749
Rangewide Total
249,269
424,805
600,342
Wind Energy Development and Transmission Lines As discussed in Threats Influencing Current Condition, the States in the lesser prairie-chicken analysis area have experienced some of the largest growth in wind energy development in the nation. Identification of the actual
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number of proposed wind energy projects that will be built within the range of the lesser prairie-chicken in any future timeframe is difficult to accurately discern. We conducted an analysis of current and potential future wind energy development for the SSA
for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken, and the
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future development was estimated at three different levels within the analysis area of the lesser prairie-chicken at low, intermediate, and high levels Service 2021, Appendix C. Table 11 represents the wind development projects projected at three levels of development per ecoregion.
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