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L 93/2

EN

Official Journal of the European Union
31.3.2023

and would undermine its resilience in responding to likely future developments, such as the complete halt of Russian imports. It is therefore of the utmost importance to continue to prevent the exposure of the Union to gas shortage and high price volatility.

4

Due to the significant decrease in Russian pipeline gas imports over the past year, the capacity of the Union to refill storage is currently considerably reduced, including in comparison with the situation in the summer of 2022.
Despite the fact that the energy crisis commenced in 2022, the Union was able to import approximately 60 bcm of gas from Russia to fill storage facilities during that year, including via the NordStream 1 pipeline. However, during the summer of 2022, Russia interrupted and eventually completely halted gas supplies via that pipeline, which was damaged by acts of sabotage in September 2022 to such a degree that it is currently unable to transport any gas and will remain unable to do so forthe foreseeable future. Taking into account the current pipeline gas import levels, the Union will only receive a maximum of 20 bcm of Russian pipeline imports, if those unreliable imports are not disrupted altogether. Therefore, there is a serious risk that gas shortages will occur in the Union during the winter of 2023-2024.

5

These severe difficulties are exacerbated by a number of additional risks and new factors, including a rebound in Asian liquefied natural gas LNG demand that reduces the availability of gas on the global gas market, weather conditions which have recently further deteriorated, thus affecting the hydropower storage and nuclear production due to low water levels, new technical developments which increase the level of uncertainty as to the availability of existing nuclear production, and which require higher recourse to gas-fired power generation, and further possible gas supply disruptions, including a complete halt of gas imports from Russia.

6

These persistant and new severe difficulties affect the ability of the Union to meet gas demand, in particular the filling of underground storage facilities in a timely and efficient manner for the winter of 2023-2024, as well as the adequacy between supply and demand during the winter of 2023-2024.

7

In accordance with Regulation EU 2022/1369, the Commission carried out a review of that Regulation and its results were summarised in a report presented by the Commission to the Council. The report analyses different scenarios, with and without an extension of demand-reduction efforts under Regulation EU 2022/1369, including a seven month extension from April to October 2023, an eight month extension from August 2023 to March 2024, and a one year extension from April 2023 to March 2024. The report concludes that without continued demand reduction, storage levels would only reach 69 bcm by the end of October 2023, which is significantly below the 90 % 89,4 bcm target for 1 November set out in Regulation EU 2017/1938 and that storage levels would be fully depleted by February 2024.

8

Regarding the different scenarios assessed in the report, in the event of a seven month extension from April to October 2023, storage facilities would be sufficiently filled by the end of the summer 2023 95 bcm by the end of October 2023, thereby reaching the 90 % target. However, as gas demand, even in normal winters, is twice as high as in summer, storage facilities would be almost fully depleted by the end of the winter of 2023-2024 9 bcm by the end of March 2024. This implies extremely serious security of supply concerns and makes it very difficult to fill storage facilities sufficiently for the following winter. In case of an eight month extension from August 2023 to March 2024, storage facilities would be filled too slowly, thereby reaching only 80 bcm by the end of October 2023, which is significantly below the target, and storage levels would drop to below 30 % by the end of the winter of 2023-2024 below 28 bcm, causing serious security of supply concerns and making it difficult to fill storage facilities sufficiently for the following winter. Only in the event of a one year extension with a continued 15 % demand reduction from April 2023 to March 2024, would storage levels meet the 1 November 2023 90 %
storage target and reach 89,4 bcm by 1 November 2023, with Member States being on track for a secured supply of gas for the winter of 2023-2024 with 43 bcm stored at Union level by the end of March 2024.