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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 185 / Tuesday, September 28, 2021 / Proposed Rules that cited the Wisconsin decision in holding that the EPA must assess the impact of interstate transport on air quality at the next downwind attainment date, including Marginal area attainment dates, in evaluating the basis for the EPAs denial of a petition under CAA section 126b.16 The court noted that section 126b incorporates the Good Neighbor Provision, and, therefore, the EPA must find a violation of section 126 if an upwind source will significantly contribute to downwind nonattainment at the next downwind attainment deadline.
Therefore, the agency must evaluate downwind air quality at that deadline, not at some later date. 17 The EPA
interprets the courts holding in Maryland as requiring the Agency, under the good neighbor provision, to assess downwind air quality by the next applicable attainment date, including a Marginal area attainment date under section 181 for ozone nonattainment.18
The Marginal area attainment date for the 2015 ozone NAAQS is August 3, 2021.19 Historically, the EPA has considered the full ozone season prior to the attainment date as supplying an appropriate analytic year for assessing good neighbor obligations. While this would be 2020 for an August 2021
attainment date which falls within the 2021 ozone season running from May 1
to September 30, in this circumstance, when the 2020 ozone season is wholly in the past, it is appropriate to focus on 2021 in order to address good neighbor obligations to the extent possible by the 2021 attainment date. The EPA does not believe it would be appropriate to select an analytical year that is wholly in the past, because the agency interprets the good neighbor provision as forward looking.20 Consequently, in this proposed action the EPA will use the analytical year of 2021 to evaluate 16 Maryland v. EPA, 958 F.3d 1185, 120304 D.C.
Cir. 2020.
17 Id. at 1204.
18 We note that the court in Maryland did not have occasion to evaluate circumstances in which EPA may determine that an upwind linkage to a downwind air quality problem exists at steps 1 and 2 of the interstate transport framework by a particular attainment date, but for reasons of impossibility or profound uncertainty the Agency is unable to mandate upwind pollution controls by that date. See Wisconsin, 938 F.3d at 320. The D.C.
Circuit noted in Wisconsin that upon a sufficient showing, these circumstances may warrant flexibility in effectuating the purpose of the good neighbor provision. Such circumstances are not at issue in the present action.
19 CAA section 181a; 40 CFR 51.1303; 83 FR
25776 June 4, 2018, effective Aug. 3, 2018.
20 See 85 FR at 68981; see also Wisconsin, 938
F.3d at 322.

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Hawaiis good neighbor obligations with respect to the 2015 ozone NAAQS.21
II. HDOH SIP Submission The Hawaii Department of Health HDOH submitted its good neighbor SIP
submission for the 2015 ozone NAAQS
by letter dated November 12, 2019.22
The submittal included documentation of public participation proceedings to meet the requirements of CAA section 110a2 and 40 CFR 51.102. The EPA
determined that the submittal was complete on November 13, 2019.23
HDOH concluded that Hawaii does not significantly contribute to nonattainment or interfere with maintenance of the 2015 ozone NAAQS
in any other state, citing the distance from Hawaii to the continental U.S, the relatively small quantity of ozone precursor emissions in Hawaii, and an evaluation of ozone transport using trajectory analysis of emissions from Hawaii to the continental U.S.
In the HDOH submittal, the State notes that Hawaii is approximately 2,390 miles from the nearest state, California. HDOH also points to Hawaiis 2016 Annual Summary of Air Quality Data to note that Hawaii is in attainment for all NAAQS and compares Hawaiis ozone precursor emissions to those of California and Nevada.
Hawaiis analysis states that emissions of ozone precursors, nitrogen oxides NOX and volatile organic compounds VOC, from Hawaii were 7.57 and 6.28
percent, respectively, of Californias emissions in 2011 and 7.95 and 5.21
percent in 2014.24 Cumulatively, emissions of ozone precursors from Hawaii in 2011 and 2014 were 6.97 and 6.54 percent, respectively, of Californias emissions. Furthermore, HDOH points out that the States ozone precursor emissions have exhibited a downward trend, having decreased since the 2011 National Emissions Inventory NEI, and notes that their emissions continue to be relatively low compared to California. To demonstrate that Hawaiis ozone precursor emissions 21 EPA recognizes that by the time final action is taken with respect to this SIP submission, the 2021
ozone season will be wholly in the past. As discussed below, the available modeling information indicates that our analysis would not change even using 2023 as the analytic year. The 2023 modeling results are included in the Ozone Design Values and Contributions Revised CSAPR
Update.xlsx, included in the docket for this action.
22 Letter dated November 12, 2019, from Bruce Anderson, Ph.D., Director of Health, HDOH, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, U.S. EPA, Region IX.
23 Letter dated November 13, 2019, from Elizabeth J. Adams, Acting Director, Air Division, EPA Region 9, to Bruce Anderson, HDOH.
24 2014 data was the most recent available at the time Hawaii prepared its submittal.

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would not significantly contribute to interstate transport, even if California and Hawaii were directly adjacent to each other, the submittal compares Hawaiis ozone precursor emissions to those of Nevada, which shares a border with California, but does not significantly contribute to interstate transport to any other state.25 Emissions of NOX and VOCs from Hawaii were 51.24 and 49.28 percent, respectively, of Nevadas emissions in 2014.
Cumulatively, emissions of ozone precursors from Hawaii in 2014 were 50.35 percent of Nevadas emissions.
Appendix 1 of the HDOH submittal provides trajectories for emissions from Hawaiis Campbell Industrial Park, which includes a refinery and power generation facility, based on 2010
meteorological data during January and July. HDOH found that a comparison between the trajectory modeling results and ozone monitoring data supports the conclusion that it is highly unlikely that Hawaii is currently impacting nonattainment or maintenance areas of other states and that it is highly unlikely to do so in the future.
III. EPA Evaluation As explained in Section I of this document, in consideration of the holdings in Wisconsin and Maryland, the EPAs four-step interstate transport analysis relies on 2021 as the relevant attainment year for evaluating Hawaiis good neighbor obligations with respect to the 2015 ozone NAAQS.26 In step 1, we identify locations where the Agency expects there to be nonattainment or maintenance receptors for the 2015
8-hour ozone NAAQS in the 2021
analytic future year. Where the EPAs analysis shows that a monitoring site does not fall under the definition of a 25 Hawaii cited EPAs 2015 Ozone NAAQS
Interstate Transport Assessment Design Values and Contributions spreadsheet, released in a memorandum from Peter Tsirigotis, to Regional Air Division Directors, Region 110, dated March 27, 2018. See 2015 Ozone NAAQS Interstate Transport Assessment Design Values and Contributions at https www.epa.gov/airmarkets/memo-andsupplemental-information-regarding-interstatetransport-sips-2015-ozone-naaqs. File name:
Updated_2023_modeling_dvs_collective_
contributions.xlsx.
26 We recognize that Hawaii and other states may have been influenced by EPAs 2018 guidance memos issued prior to the Wisconsin and Maryland decisions in making good neighbor submissions that relied on EPAs modeling of 2023. When there are intervening changes in relevant law or legal interpretation of CAA requirements, states are generally free to withdraw, supplement, and/or resubmit their SIP submissions with new analysis in compliance with CAA procedures for SIP
submissions. While Hawaii has not done this, as explained in this section, the independent analysis EPA has conducted at its discretion confirms that the states submission in this instance is ultimately approvable.

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