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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 167 / Wednesday, September 1, 2021 / Proposed Rules
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provision would provide for emissions reductions by lowering the wood burning curtailment thresholds in only Tulare County. The hot spot counties are already subject to the lower wood burning curtailment thresholds in the rule and thus would not be affected by the finding of failure to attain determination and the other non-hot spot counties i.e., other than Tulare County in this example would not be subject to the lower wood burning curtailment thresholds.
In accordance with 40 CFR 51.1014, the contingency provision in District Rule 4901 identifies a specific triggering mechanism. In this case, the triggering mechanism in the rule is the EPAs final determination that the SJV has failed to attain the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS by the applicable attainment date.274 The rule also specifies a timeframe within which its requirements become effective after a failure-to-attain determination i.e., on and after 60 days from the effective date of the EPAs final determination, and would take effect with minimal further action by the state or the EPA. However, the contingency provision in District Rule 4901 does not address the potential for State failures to meet a quantitative milestone, submit a quantitative milestone report, or failure to meet an RFP requirement.275
In addition, the contingency measure provision of Rule 4901 is not structured to achieve any additional emissions reductions if the EPA finds that the monitoring locations in the hot spot counties i.e., Fresno, Kern, or Madera Counties are the only ones in the SJV
that are violating the 2006 PM2.5
NAAQS as of the attainment date. To qualify as a contingency measure, a 274 Section 5.7.3 of Rule 4901 states that the District shall notify the public of an Episodic Curtailment for the PM2.5 curtailment levels described in Sections 5.7.1.2 and 5.7.2.2 for any county that has failed to attain the applicable standard. emphasis added We interpret this to mean that the District would apply the more stringent curtailment provisions for any county identified in the EPAs final rule making the determination that the San Joaquin Valley failed to attain the applicable PM2.5 NAAQS.
275 We note that section 5.7.3 of District Rule 4901 applies the lower thresholds on and after sixty days following the effective date of EPA final rulemaking, which is appropriate as a contingency measure trigger for a failure to attain by the applicable attainment date given that the EPA
conducts rulemaking to make such determinations.
However, for the three other contingency triggers, i.e., State failures to meet a quantitative milestone, submit a quantitative milestone report, or failure to meet an RFP requirement, the EPA may not conduct rulemaking but instead make the determinations through correspondence directly to the state. Thus, we recommend that section 5.7.3 of District Rule 4901 be amended to refer to EPA final determinations rather than to EPA final rulemaking when the rule is amended to include the additional contingency measure triggers.

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measure must be structured to achieve emissions reductions, if triggered, and the contingency provision of District Rule 4901 provides for such reductions only under certain circumstances and should be revised to provide for additional emissions reductions in the SJV if triggered regardless of which monitoring sites is determined to be violating the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS as of the attainment date.276
Next, we considered the adequacy of the section 5.7.3 of District Rule 4901
from the standpoint of the magnitude of emissions reductions the measures would provide if triggered. Neither the CAA nor the EPAs implementing regulations for the PM2.5 NAAQS
establish a specific amount of emissions reductions that implementation of contingency measures must achieve, but we generally expect that contingency measures should provide for emissions reductions approximately equivalent to one years worth of RFP, which amounts to reductions of approximately 0.6 tpd of direct PM2.5 and 18.4 tpd of NOX for the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS in the SJV.277
As noted in our summary of the States submission, the emissions reductions from the contingency provisions in District Rule 4901 would amount to approximately 0.00 tpd to 0.387 tpd of direct PM2.5, which equates to approximately 0% to 67% of one years worth of RFP for direct PM2.5. With respect to NOX emissions reductions, the contingency provisions in District Rule 4901 would amount to approximately 0.00 tpd to 0.06 tpd, which equates to approximately 0% to 0.3% of one years worth of RFP for NOX.
The States contingency measure element in the 2018 PM2.5 Plan provides the larger SIP planning context in which to judge the adequacy of the amount of emission reductions resulting from the contingency measure by calculating the surplus emissions reductions estimated to be achieved in the year after the 276 The EPA believes that the most straightforward remedy under these circumstances would be for the District to amend section 5.7.3 of Rule 4901 to extend the lower wood burning curtailment thresholds region-wide if the EPA
determines that the area has failed to attain the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS by the applicable attainment date.
277 The calculation of one years worth of RFP is based on dividing the values in column E of table H6 of Appendix H updated February 11, 2020 of the 2018 PM2.5 Plan by 11, i.e., the number of years between 2013 and 2024. As part of the EPAs final approval of the States attainment plan for the 2006
PM2.5 NAAQS, we concluded that ammonia, SOX, and VOC emissions do not contribute significantly to ambient PM2.5 levels that exceed the 2006 PM2.5
NAAQS in the San Joaquin Valley. 85 FR 17382, at 1739017396 March 27, 2020 proposed rule;
finalized at 85 FR 44192 July 22, 2020.

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attainment year. More specifically, the 2018 PM2.5 Plan identifies additional NOX reductions in the year following the attainment year of 2024. For the SJV, the estimates of additional reductions in the post-attainment year 2025 are 0 tpd direct PM2.5 and 5.2 tpd NOX.278
Generally, we will consider such surplus emissions reductions in evaluating the sufficiency of the emissions reductions from contingency measures identified by the state, however, in this case, because the identified contingency measure may result in no emissions reductions, the larger planning context is not relevant to our review of the sufficiency of the contingency measure.
For these reasons, we propose to disapprove the contingency measure element of the 2018 PM2.5 Plan under CAA section 179c9 and 40 CFR
51.1014 with respect to the States Serious area attainment plan for the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS in the SJV. While the contingency measure provision of the 2019 amendment to Rule 4901 has an adequate triggering mechanism for failure to attain, we propose to disapprove it because it may result in no emissions reductions if the area fails to attain the NAAQS by the applicable attainment date. Furthermore, as the contingency measure element and the contingency provision of Rule 4901 lack any to-be-triggered measure for failure to meet a quantitative milestone, submit a quantitative milestone report, or failure to meet an RFP requirement, we propose that the submission is also inadequate for RFP contingency measures.
Lastly, if the EPA finalizes the proposed disapproval of the contingency measure element for the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS, the area would be eligible for a protective finding under the transportation conformity rule because the 2018 PM2.5 Plan reflects adopted control measures and contains enforceable commitments that fully satisfy the emissions reductions requirements for RFP and attainment for the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS.279
278 These estimates are based on the annual average emission reductions from 2024 to 2025 due to baseline measures and CARB and the Districts aggregate tonnage commitment in Table H5 of Appendix H updated February 11, 2020 of the 2018 PM2.5 Plan. We also note that Table H13 of Appendix H indicates that the year-over-year reductions for purposes of the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS
is 0.1 tpd direct PM2.5 and 4.2 tpd NOX. However, the estimates in Table H13 reflect emissions changes associated only with mobile sources whereas the appropriate comparison includes the entire emissions inventory.
279 40 CFR 93.120a3.

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