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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 166 / Tuesday, August 31, 2021 / Rules and Regulations Canyon 115 adult individuals, will be affected by groundwater drawdown due to the Rosemont Mine, which will impact the shade and moist microclimate this species needs Factor A. This species is known to be collected and sold Factor B, and plants in close proximity to trails or roads have higher discovery potential and are, therefore, more likely to be collected.
Twenty-nine of 50 populations 58
percent are small fewer than 50
individuals Factor E. Erosion Factors A and E, trampling Factor E, collection Factor B, herbivory predation Factor C, and fire Factors A and E have the potential to reduce or completely remove these small populations. Synergistic interactions among wildfire, nonnative grasses, decreased precipitation, and increased temperatures cumulatively and cyclically impact Bartrams stonecrop, and all stressors are exacerbated in small populations Factor E. The existing regulatory mechanisms Factor D do not address the majority of the threats to the species. Conservation efforts have not yet been implemented for this species.
We find Bartrams stonecrop to face increased vulnerability to the current and future threats due to the small population sizes of the majority of populations Factor E. Small populations are susceptible to the loss of genetic diversity, genetic drift, and inbreeding. Currently 47 populations spread across nine mountain ranges in the United States and three ranges in Mexico exist as single populations i.e., no subpopulations to provide further resiliency in case of extirpation. The mountain ranges are widely separated 1442 kilometers 8.726 miles apart and may not be genetically diverse because pollination or transport of seeds between populations may be very limited. This could mean that betweenpopulation genetic diversity may be greater than within-population diversity Smith and Wayne 1996, p. 333;
Lindenmayer and Peakall 2000, p. 200.
Further, there may have been a loss of genetic diversity in the three extirpated populations. However, it is likely that the species genetic representation will be lost given the impacts to populations through the reduction in the number of individuals per population and the loss of populations Factor E. In addition, it is likely that ecological representation will continue to decline as those populations at lower elevations are lost due to reduced precipitation and increased temperatures Factor E.
Regulatory mechanisms Factor D
and other management efforts by USFS
and NPS provide some benefit to
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Bartrams stonecrop, as the majority of known populations are located on USFS
67 percent of the area of populations and NPS 22 percent owned and managed lands. The Coronado National Forest Land and Resource Management Plan Plan includes actions to control nonnative invasive species, restore habitat for federally listed species, and contribute to the recovery of federally listed species USFS 2018, pp. 38, 41, 44, 46, 49, and 175. The Plan recognizes Bartrams stonecrop occurrences on the Coronado National Forest USFS 2018, pp. 54. The Arizona Department of Agriculture protects native plants including Bartrams stonecrop under the 2009 Arizona Native Plan Law Arizona Revised Statutes Title 3. Agriculture 3903
and removal is restricted to salvage of the plants. However, these efforts have not been able to ameliorate the threat of nonnative plant species and the altered fire regime and effects of drought.
The overall range of the species has not been significantly reduced, although three populations are extirpated due to habitat alteration. Currently, 50 extant populations in 12 mountain ranges provides a level of protection from catastrophic events now and in the near future. While there are multiple stressors to the remaining populations, these stressors are not immediately impacting all populations such that Bartrams stonecrop is currently in danger of extinction. The stressors that pose the largest risk to future species viability are primarily related to habitat changes: Groundwater extraction from mining, long-term drought, and alteration in wildfire regime. These stressors are occurring and impacting Bartrams stonecrop and will continue to do so within the next 40 years. We chose a foreseeable future of 40 years approximately 2060 because this is within the range of predictions of available hydrological and climate change model forecasts, is within the time period of the Rosemont Mine effects, and represents eight generations of Bartrams stonecrop, which allows us to assess reproductive effects on the species and allows the species opportunities to rebound. The primary sources we examined in determining future scenarios include the RCP 4.5
and 8.5 models in the IPCC 2013 and 2014, entire and Garfin et al. 2013, entire. In addition, we examined literature pertaining to wildfire frequency and severity, including Westerling et al. 2006, FireScape 2016, and Fire Management Information System 2016. An increase in temperature results in increased
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evapotranspiration rates and soil drying, resulting in the effects of future droughts becoming more severe Garfin 2013, pp. 137138 and wildfires becoming more frequent and of increased intensity. The threats to Bartrams stonecrop act synergistically to influence the viability of the species.
For example, decreased water availability and invasion of nonnative grasses promote higher severity and frequency of fires, while the effect of fires in Bartrams stonecrop habitat is to promote nonnative grass invasion and increase the likelihood of post-fire runoff and loss of shade trees.
We find that Bartrams stonecrop is likely to become an endangered species throughout all of its range within the foreseeable future. It is facing threats across its range that have led to reduced resiliency, redundancy, and representation, and we expect the species to continue to decline into the future. Thus, after assessing the best available information, we conclude that Bartrams stonecrop is not currently in danger of extinction, but is likely to become in danger of extinction within the foreseeable future throughout all of its range.
Status Throughout a Significant Portion of Its Range Under the Act and our implementing regulations, a species may warrant listing if it is in danger of extinction or likely to become so in the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range. The court in Center for Biological Diversity v. Everson, 2020
WL 437289 D.D.C. Jan. 28, 2020
Center for Biological Diversity, vacated the aspect of the Final Policy on Interpretation of the Phrase Significant Portion of Its Range in the Endangered Species Acts Definitions of Endangered Species and Threatened Species 79 FR 37578; July 1, 2014
that provided that the Services do not undertake an analysis of significant portions of a species range if the species warrants listing as threatened throughout all of its range. Therefore, we proceed to evaluating whether the species is endangered in a significant portion of its rangethat is, whether there is any portion of the species range for which both 1 the portion is significant; and 2 the species is in danger of extinction in that portion.
Depending on the case, it might be more efficient for us to address the significance question or the status question first. We can choose to address either question first. Regardless of which question we address first, if we reach a negative answer with respect to the first question that we address, we do
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