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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 164 / Friday, August 27, 2021 / Proposed Rules incremental cost increase. The incremental markup is typically less than the baseline markup and is designed to maintain similar per-unit operating profit before and after new or amended standards.6
Chapter 6 of the preliminary TSD
provides details on DOEs development of markups for distribution transformers.
C. Energy Use Analysis The energy use analysis produces energy use estimates and end-use load shapes for distribution transformers.
The energy use analysis estimates the range of energy use of distribution transformers in the field i.e., as they are actually used by consumers enabling evaluation of energy savings from the operation of distribution transformer equipment at various efficiency levels, while the end-use load characterization allows evaluation of the impact on monthly and peak demand for electricity. The energy use analysis provides the basis for other analyses DOE performed, particularly assessments of the energy savings and the savings in operating costs that could result from adoption of amended or new standards.
Chapter 7 of the preliminary TSD
addresses the energy use analysis.

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D. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses The effect of new or amended energy conservation standards on individual consumers usually involves a reduction in operating cost and an increase in purchase cost. DOE used the following two metrics to measure consumer impacts:
The LCC is the total consumer expense of an appliance or product over the life of that product, consisting of total installed cost manufacturer selling price, distribution chain markups, sales tax, and installation costs plus operating costs expenses for energy use, maintenance, and repair. To compute the operating costs, DOE discounts future operating costs to the time of purchase and sums them over the lifetime of the product.
The PBP is the estimated amount of time in years it takes consumers to recover the increased purchase cost including installation of a moreefficient product through lower 6 Because the projected price of standardscompliant products is typically higher than the price of baseline products, using the same markup for the incremental cost and the baseline cost would result in higher per-unit operating profit. While such an outcome is possible, DOE maintains that in markets that are reasonably competitive it is unlikely that standards would lead to a sustainable increase in profitability in the long run.

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operating costs. DOE calculates the PBP
by dividing the change in purchase cost at higher efficiency levels by the change in annual operating cost for the year that amended or new standards are assumed to take effect.
Chapter 8 of the preliminary TSD
addresses the LCC and PBP analyses.
E. National Impact Analysis The NIA estimates the national energy savings NES and the net present value NPV of total consumer costs and savings expected to result from amended standards at specific efficiency levels referred to as candidate standard levels.7 DOE calculates the NES and NPV for the potential standard levels considered based on projections of annual equipment shipments, along with the annual energy consumption and total installed cost data from the energy use and LCC analyses. For the present analysis, DOE projected the energy savings, operating cost savings, equipment costs, and NPV of consumer benefits over the lifetime of distribution transformers sold from 2025 through 2054.
DOE evaluates the impacts of new or amended standards by comparing a case without such standards with standardscase projections no-new-standards case. The no-new-standards case characterizes energy use and consumer costs for each equipment class in the absence of new or amended energy conservation standards. For this projection, DOE considers historical trends in efficiency and various forces that are likely to affect the mix of efficiencies over time. DOE compares the no-new-standards case with projections characterizing the market for each equipment class if DOE adopted new or amended standards at specific energy efficiency levels for that class.
For each efficiency level, DOE considers how a given standard would likely affect the market shares of equipment with efficiencies greater than the standard.
DOE uses a spreadsheet model to calculate the energy savings and the national consumer costs and savings from each efficiency level. Interested parties can review DOEs analyses by changing various input quantities within the spreadsheet. The NIA
spreadsheet model uses typical values as opposed to probability distributions as inputs. Critical inputs to this analysis include shipments projections, estimated product lifetimes, product installed costs and operating costs, product annual energy consumption, 7 The NIA accounts for impacts in the 50 states and U.S. territories.

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the base case efficiency projection, and discount rates.
DOE estimates a combined total of 4.0
quads of site energy savings at the maxtech efficiency levels for distribution transformers. Combined site energy savings at Efficiency Level 1 for all equipment classes are estimated to be 0.3 quads. Therefore, DOE has determined the potential available energy savings for distribution transformers are more than the 0.3
quads of site energy threshold established by the Process Rule and thus are considered significant under EPCA
42 U.S.C. 6316a; 42 U.S.C.
6295o3B.
Chapter 10 of the preliminary TSD
addresses the NIA.
IV. Public Participation DOE invites public participation in this process through participation in the webinar and submission of written comments and information. After the webinar and the closing of the comment period, DOE will consider all timelysubmitted comments and additional information obtained from interested parties, as well as information obtained through further analyses. Following such consideration, the Department will publish either a determination that the standards for distribution transformers need not be amended or a NOPR
proposing to amend those standards.
The NOPR, should one be issued, would include proposed energy conservation standards for the products covered by that rulemaking, and members of the public would be given an opportunity to submit written and oral comments on the proposed standards.
A. Participation in the Webinar The time and date of the webinar meeting are listed in the DATES section at the beginning of this document.
Webinar registration information, participant instructions, and information about the capabilities available to webinar participants will be published on DOEs website:
www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/
appliance_standards/
standards.aspx?productid=55.
Participants are responsible for ensuring their systems are compatible with the webinar software.
B. Procedure for Submitting Prepared General Statements for Distribution Any person who has an interest in the topics addressed in this notice, or who is representative of a group or class of persons that has an interest in these issues, may request an opportunity to make an oral presentation at the webinar. Such persons may submit such
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