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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 162 / Wednesday, August 25, 2021 / Proposed Rules
Amur Estuary, inclusive of the few individuals found in the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk;
Lower Amur, from Khaborovsk, Russia, to the mouth of the river where it meets the estuary;
Middle Amur, from Heihe, China, to Khaborovsk, Russia, inclusive of the Zeya and Bureya Rivers, both northern tributaries of the Amur; and Upper Amur, upstream of Heihe, China, inclusive of the Shilka and Argun Rivers whose confluence form the Amur headwaters.
Some fish from the Lower, Middle, and Upper Amur may enter the estuary to forage, but this is likely rare Zhuang et al. 2003, p. 38.
We use the analysis units to describe what we determine to be regions where Amur sturgeon likely have reproduced in at least partially distinct populations, where they may face different conservation threats, and where their status may be different. Although the exact migration routes, spawning locations, delineations between, and
levels of interbreeding among fish from these regions are not known, there are clearly different breeding stocks, separated by time and location. For instance, fish from the Zeya and Bureya breed in the Upper and upper Middle Amur Krykhtin and Svirskii 1997, pp.
235236, whereas fish from the estuary and lower river migrate upstream to breed between Luobei, Xunke, and Tongjiang counties along the lower Middle Amur Wei et al. 1997, pp. 245.
Fish that do not reproduce in a given year do not migrate e.g., Koshelev et al.
2014a, entire; Krykhtin and Svirskii 1997, pp. 236238. All estuary fish that reproduce do so only after having migrated upstream into the river.
Offspring from the estuary population may spend up to 2 years in the river before reproducing and returning to the estuary to mature Krykhtin and Svirskii 1997, p. 237.

Population Size and Demography A series of Amur sturgeon surveys conducted between 2005 and 2011
Koshelev et al. 2014a, pp. 13101314
are the most comprehensive, quantitative appraisal of the species we are aware of, for either contemporary or historical population estimates. A
greater than 95 percent decline in the species abundance was estimated between 1960 and 2010 Ruban and Qiwei, 2010, not paginated, and sizeable populations now exist only in the Amur Estuary and Lower Amur analysis units see table 1, below. The species is extirpated from the Upper Amur and largely so from the Middle Amur Koshelev et al. 2014a, pp. 1313
1316. The remaining population exhibits a skewed sex ratio of 1 female per 2 males, very likely due to preferential poaching of females for caviar and use in aquaculture Koshelev et al. 2014b, pp. 1127, 1129, and chapter 3 of the SSA for a detailed discussion of sturgeon harvesting.

TABLE 1POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR AMUR STURGEON ANALYSIS UNITS, 20052011
Population Amur Estuary
Lower Amur
Middle Amur
Upper Amur

Most recent condition Extant; 264,000 fish >1 year old; surveys 20052011.
Extant; 25,000 fish >1 year old; higher density closer to the estuary.
Extirpated from the Songhua, Nen, Zeya, and Bureya Rivers and nearly so from the entire unit.
Very likely extirpated, including from the Argun and Shilka Rivers.

Note: Sources for the information in this table are Koshelev et al. 2014a, pp. 13121316; Cai et al. 2013, p. 150; Simonov and Dahmer 2008, p. 129; and Novomodny et al. 2004, p. 18.

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Regulatory and Analytical Framework Regulatory Framework Section 4 of the Act 16 U.S.C. 1533
and its implementing regulations 50
CFR part 424 set forth the procedures for determining whether a species is an endangered species or a threatened species. The Act defines an endangered species as a species that is in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range, and a threatened species as a species that is likely to become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range. The Act requires that we determine whether any species is an endangered species or a threatened species because of any of the following factors:
A The present or threatened destruction, modification, or curtailment of its habitat or range;
B Overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or educational purposes;
C Disease or predation;
D The inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms; or
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E Other natural or manmade factors affecting its continued existence.
These factors represent broad categories of natural or human-caused actions or conditions that could have an effect on a species continued existence.
In evaluating these actions and conditions, we look for those that may have a negative effect on individuals of the species, as well as other actions or conditions that may ameliorate any negative effects or may have positive effects.
We use the term threat to refer in general to actions or conditions that are known to or are reasonably likely to negatively affect individuals of a species. The term threat includes actions or conditions that have a direct impact on individuals direct impacts, as well as those that affect individuals through alteration of their habitat or required resources stressors. The term threat may encompasseither together or separatelythe source of the action or condition or the action or condition itself.
However, the mere identification of any threats does not necessarily mean that the species meets the statutory
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definition of an endangered species or a threatened species. In determining whether a species meets either definition, we must evaluate all identified threats by considering the species expected response and the effects of the threatsin light of those actions and conditions that will ameliorate the threatson an individual, population, and species level. We evaluate each threat and its expected effects on the species, then analyze the cumulative effect of all of the threats on the species as a whole.
We also consider the cumulative effect of the threats in light of those actions and conditions that will have positive effects on the species, such as any existing regulatory mechanisms or conservation efforts. The Secretary determines whether the species meets the definition of an endangered species or a threatened species only after conducting this cumulative analysis and describing the expected effect on the species now and in the foreseeable future.

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