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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 155 / Monday, August 16, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
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The recovery criteria in the recovery plan also require that at least 12 of the protected, self-sustaining occurrences be located outside of Pickett County, Tennessee, which provides for redundancy across areas of representation within the species geographic range. Of the 42 occurrences meeting the criterion of being protected and self-sustaining, 28 are located in Pickett County, Tennessee; 13 are located elsewhere in Tennessee 9 in Fentress County, 4 in Scott County; and 1 is located in McCreary County, Kentucky. Thus, this delisting criterion is also exceeded.
Another measure of representation for the species is its distribution among major watersheds in which it is found.
The recovery plan reported in 1996 that the species was known only from the South Fork Cumberland watershed, but it is now also known from 12
occurrences in the Obey River watershed in Tennessee. Of the 42
occurrences meeting the recovery criterion that there be at least 40
geographically distinct, protected, and self-sustaining occurrences, 2 are located in the Obey River watershed.
The low number of occurrences in this watershed meeting this criterion is primarily due to the recent discovery of many of the occurrences in this watershed and the consequent lack of repeat observations. In addition to the two occurrences in the Obey River watershed meeting the recovery criterion above, nine occurrences on protected lands have resiliency indices of medium or higher.
Our assessment of the viability of Cumberland sandwort supports the determination that the recovery criteria for delisting the species have been satisfied. The discussion above demonstrates that there are more than 40 protected and self-sustaining occurrences of the species, distributed among four counties in Tennessee and one in Kentucky.
Summary of Factors Affecting the Species Section 4 of the Act 16 U.S.C. 1533
and its implementing regulations 50
CFR part 424 set forth the procedures for listing species, reclassifying species, or removing species from listed status.
We may determine that a species is an endangered or threatened species due to one or more of the five factors described in section 4a1 of the Act: A The present or threatened destruction, modification, or curtailment of its habitat or range; B overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or educational purposes; C disease or predation; D the inadequacy of
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existing regulatory mechanisms; or E
other natural or manmade factors affecting its continued existence.
These factors represent broad categories of natural or human-caused actions or conditions that could have an effect on a species continued existence.
In evaluating these actions and conditions, we look for those that may have a negative effect on individuals of the species, as well as other actions or conditions that may ameliorate any negative effects or may have positive effects.
We use the term threat to refer in general to actions or conditions that are known to or are reasonably likely to negatively affect individuals of a species. The term threat includes actions or conditions that have a direct impact on individuals direct impacts, as well as those that affect individuals through alteration of their habitat or required resources stressors. The term threat may encompasseither together or separatelythe source of the action or condition or the action or condition itself.
However, the mere identification of any threats does not necessarily mean that the species meets the statutory definition of an endangered species or a threatened species. In determining whether a species meets either definition, we must evaluate all identified threats by considering the species expected response and the effects of the threatsin light of those actions and conditions that will ameliorate the threatson an individual, population, and species level. We evaluate each threat and its expected effects on the species, then analyze the cumulative effect of all of the threats on the species as a whole.
We also consider the cumulative effect of the threats in light of those actions and conditions that will have positive effects on the speciessuch as any existing regulatory mechanisms or conservation efforts. The Secretary determines whether the species meets the definition of an endangered species or a threatened species only after conducting this cumulative analysis and describing the expected effect on the species now and in the foreseeable future.
The Act does not define the term foreseeable future, which appears in the statutory definition of threatened species. Our implementing regulations at 50 CFR 424.11d set forth a framework for evaluating the foreseeable future on a case-by-case basis. The term foreseeable future extends only so far into the future as we can reasonably determine that both the future threats and the species responses to those
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threats are likely. In other words, the foreseeable future is the period of time in which we can make reliable predictions. Reliable does not mean certain; it means sufficient to provide a reasonable degree of confidence in the prediction. Thus, a prediction is reliable if it is reasonable to depend on it when making decisions.
It is not always possible or necessary to define foreseeable future as a particular number of years. Analysis of the foreseeable future uses the best scientific and commercial data available and should consider the timeframes applicable to the relevant threats and to the species likely responses to those threats in view of its life-history characteristics. Data that are typically relevant to assessing the species biological response include speciesspecific factors such as lifespan, reproductive rates or productivity, certain behaviors, and other demographic factors.
A recovered species is one that no longer meets the Acts definition of endangered or threatened. Determining whether the status of a species has improved to the point that it can be delisted or downlisted requires consideration of the same five factors identified above for listing a species.
When Cumberland sandwort was listed as endangered in 1988, the identified threats factors influencing its status were the modification and loss of habitat and curtailment of range Factor A, the inadequacy of State or Federal mechanisms to protect its habitat at that time Factor D, and its limited distribution and low abundance in some populations Factor E. The following analysis evaluates these previously identified threats, any other threats currently facing the species, as well as any other threats that are reasonably likely to affect the species in the foreseeable future following the delisting and the removal of the Acts protections.
To establish the foreseeable future for the purpose of determining whether Cumberland sandwort meets the definition of an endangered or threatened species, we evaluated trends from historical data on distribution and abundance, ongoing conservation efforts, factors currently affecting the species, and predictions of future climate change. Structured monitoring of Cumberland sandwort populations began in 2000, but records of initial observations for occurrences range from 1973 to 2017, with an average of 18
years between the earliest and most recent recorded observations for a given occurrence. The period of observation is 30 or more years for 16 occurrences,
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