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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 148 / Thursday, August 5, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
Conclusion We expect that only small numbers of Pacific walruses and SBS polar bears stocks would be taken by the Industry activities specified in AOGAs Request because: 1 Walruses are extralimital in the Beaufort Sea and SBS polar bears are widely distributed throughout their expansive range, which encompasses areas beyond the Beaufort Sea ITR
region, meaning only a small proportion of the walrus or polar bear stocks will occur in the areas where Industry activities will occur; and 2 the estimated number of walruses and polar bears that could be impacted by the specified activities is small relative the size of the species walruses or stock polar bears.

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Negligible Impacts Determination and Finding Based on the best scientific information available, the results of Industry monitoring data from the previous ITRs, the review of the information generated by the listing of the polar bear as a threatened species and the designation of polar bear critical habitat, the results of our modeling assessments, and the status of the species and stocks, we find that the incidental take we have estimated to occur and authorize through this ITR
will have no more than a negligible impact on walruses and polar bears. We do not expect that the total of these disturbances will individually or collectively affect rates of recruitment or survival for walruses or polar bears.
Factors considered in our negligible impacts determination include:
1. The behavior and distribution of walruses and polar bears in areas that overlap with Industry activities are expected to limit interactions of walruses and polar bears with those activities.
The distribution and habitat use patterns of walruses and polar bears indicate that relatively few animals will occur in the proposed areas of Industry activity at any particular time, and therefore, few animals are likely to be affected. As discussed previously, only small numbers of walruses are likely to be found in the Beaufort Sea where and when offshore Industry activities are proposed. Likewise, SBS polar bears are widely distributed across a range that is much greater than the geographic scope of the ITR, are most often closely associated with pack ice, and are unlikely to interact with the open water industrial activities specified in AOGAs Request, much less the majority of activities that would occur onshore.

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2. The predicted effects of Industry activities on walruses and polar bears will be incidental nonlethal, temporary takes of animals.
The documented impacts of previous Industry activities on walruses and polar bears, taking into consideration cumulative effects, suggests that the types of activities analyzed for this ITR
will have minimal effects and will be short-term, temporary behavioral changes. The vast majority of reported polar bear observations have been of polar bears moving through the Beaufort Sea ITR region, undisturbed by the Industry activity.
3. The footprint of the proposed Industry activities is expected to be small relative to the range of the walrus and polar bear stocks.
The relatively small area of Industry activity compared to the ranges of walruses and polar bears will reduce the potential of their exposure to and disturbance from Industry activities.
4. The type of harassment that is estimated is not expected to have effects on annual rates of recruitment of survival.
The Service does not anticipate any lethal or injurious take that would remove individual polar bears or Pacific walruses from the population or prevent their successful reproduction. In fact, the majority of the Services model runs result in no serious injury Level A
harassment or lethal takes and the median of the model runs is 0.0. Level B harassment events lead only to shortterm, non-injurious behavioral disturbances that do not reduce the affected animals probability of surviving or reproducing. These disturbances would not, therefore, affect the rates of recruitment or survival for the walrus and polar bear stocks. These regulations do not authorize lethal take, and we do not anticipate any lethal take will occur.
5. Mitigation measures will limit potential effects of Industry activities.
Under this regulation, holders of an LOA will be required to adopt monitoring requirements and mitigation measures designed to reduce the potential impacts of their operations on walruses and polar bears. Seasonal restrictions, early detection monitoring programs, den detection surveys for polar bears, and adaptive mitigation and management responses based on realtime monitoring information described in these regulations will be used to avoid or minimize interactions with walruses and polar bears and, therefore, limit potential Industry disturbance of these animals.
In making this finding, we considered the following: The distribution of the
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species; the biological characteristics of the species; the nature of Industry activities; the potential effects of Industry activities and potential oil spills on the species; the probability of oil spills occurring; the documented impacts of Industry activities on the species, taking into consideration cumulative effects; the potential impacts of climate change, where both walruses and polar bears can potentially be displaced from preferred habitat;
mitigation measures designed to minimize Industry impacts through adaptive management; and other data provided by Industry monitoring programs in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.
We also considered the specific Congressional direction in balancing the potential for a significant impact with the likelihood of that event occurring.
The Service has previously explained that Congressional direction that justifies balancing probabilities with impacts follows:
If potential effects of a specified activity are conjectural or speculative, a finding of negligible impact may be appropriate. A
finding of negligible impact may also be appropriate if the probability of occurrence is low but the potential effects may be significant. In this case, the probability of occurrence of impacts must be balanced with the potential severity of harm to the species or stock when determining negligible impact.
In applying this balancing test, the Service will thoroughly evaluate the risks involved and the potential impacts on marine mammal populations. Such determination will be made based on the best available scientific information 53 FR 8474, March 15, 1988;
accord 132 Cong. Rec. S 16305 October. 15, 1986.

We reviewed the effects of the oil and gas Industry activities on walruses and polar bears, including impacts from surface interactions, aircraft overflights, maritime activities, and oil spills. Based on our review of these potential impacts, past LOA monitoring reports, and the biology and natural history of walrus and polar bear, we conclude that any incidental take reasonably likely to occur as a result of projected activities will be limited to short term behavioral disturbances that would not affect the rates of recruitment or survival for the walrus and polar bear stocks. This regulation does not authorize lethal take, and we do not anticipate any lethal take will occur.
The probability of an oil spill that will cause significant impacts to walruses and polar bears appears extremely low.
We have included information from both offshore and onshore projects in our oil spill analysis. We have analyzed the likelihood of a marine oil spill of the magnitude necessary to lethally take a
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