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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 147 / Wednesday, August 4, 2021 / Proposed Rules
In East Antarctica, no clear trend has emerged, although locations where some research stations occur appear to be cooling slightly NSIDC 2020, unpaginated.
The magnitude of climate change into the future depends in part on the amount of heat-trapping gases emitted globally and how sensitive Earths climate is to those emissions, as well as any human responses to climate change by developing adaptation and mitigation policies NASA 2020, unpaginated;
IPCC 2014a, p. 17.
Sea ice is sensitive to both the atmosphere and ocean; thus, it is an important indicator of polar climate changes Hobbs et al. 2016, p. 1543.
Given the influence that weather and climate have in affecting the extent and duration of sea ice and, relatedly, prey abundance around Antarctica, climate change is a substantial potential threat facing emperor penguins. Changes in sea-ice extent and duration, due to climate change, is projected to affect the emperor penguins long-term viability at breeding colonies throughout the species range. Different aspects of atmospheric circulation influence the annual sea-ice extent around Antarctica Turner et al. 2015, pp. 58. Thus, climate change is not projected to have a uniform effect on the sea ice around the continent Ainley et al. 2010, p. 56;
Jenouvrier et al. 2014a, entire. Because sea ice in some regions of Antarctica are projected to be more affected than in other regions, emperor penguins and their breeding habitat around the continent will be affected at different magnitudes and temporal scales.
Unique to Antarctica is calving of huge, tabular icebergs, a process that can take a decade or longer by which pieces of ice break away from the terminus of a glacier NSIDC 2020, unpaginated. On a stable ice shelf, iceberg calving is a near-cyclical, repetitive process producing large icebergs every few decades. These events are part of the natural system and not a good indicator of warming or climate change NSIDC 2020, unpaginated. However, warmer temperatures can destabilize this system. Rapid ice-shelf collapse is attributed to warmer air and water temperatures, as well as increased melt on the ice surface NSIDC 2020, unpaginated. Rapid collapse of ice shelves or calving of icebergs can affect emperor penguins, which mostly breed on fast ice at continental margins.
Generally, catastrophic ice-shelf collapse or iceberg calving could cause mortality of chicks and adults, destroy a breeding colony resulting in total breeding failure, and prevent adult
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penguins from reaching their feeding ground affecting survival and reproductive success. For example, in March 2000, an iceberg from the Ross Ice Shelf calved and lodged near the Cape Crozier and Beaufort Island colonies in the Ross Sea, which caused habitat destruction, mortality of adults and chicks, and blocked access to foraging areas Kooyman et al. 2007, p.
31. The effect would depend on the time of year season and the breeding colonys proximity to a collapsing ice shelf or calving iceberg Fretwell and Trathan 2019, pp. 36; Kooyman et al.
2007, pp. 3637. If a catastrophic event occurs, emperor penguins have been known to try to return to that same breeding location or relocate to another nearby site. However, this results in a loss of at least one breeding season for those birds because they may not find an alternate site that season.
The effect of climate change on prey abundance, relative to changes in sea ice, for emperor penguin and other marine life in the Southern Ocean could be substantial. However, the effect of climate change on Southern Ocean pelagic primary production is difficult to determine given that the time series data are insufficient less than 30 years to attribute a climate-change signature and effects may be due to a combination of climate change and natural variability Meredith et al. 2019, p. 230; Ainley et al. 2010, p. 63. Nevertheless, the emperor penguins primary prey species are positively tied to local sea-ice conditions and the penguins breeding success is highly dependent on its foraging success. Therefore, subsequent distresses to the food web because of changes in sea ice increase the risk to emperor penguins over the long term.
Conservation Efforts and Regulatory Mechanisms Antarctica is designated as a natural reserve devoted to peace and science under the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty Protocol that was signed in 1991 and entered into force in 1998 Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty 2020, unpaginated.
The Protocol includes annexes with measures to minimize effects to the Antarctic environment from conduct related to activities in Antarctica such as national program operations, scientific research, tourism, and other non-governmental activities. The Antarctic Treaty System see United States Treaties and Other International Agreements UST: 12 UST 794; Treaties and Other International Acts Series TIAS: TIAS 4780; and the United Nations Treaty Series UNTS: 402
UNTS 71, first signed in 1959 by 12

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nations, regulates international relations with respect to Antarctica. Fifty-four countries have acceded to the Treaty, and 29 of them participate in decision making as Consultative Parties.
Protection of the Antarctic environment has been a central theme in the cooperation among Parties Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty 2020, unpaginated.
Under the Protocol, certain protected areas have been established to protect outstanding environmental, scientific, historic, aesthetic or wilderness values, any combination of those values, or ongoing or planned scientific research.
Additionally, marine-protected-area boundaries may include ice shelves, adjacent fast ice and pack ice, and potentially afford more complete protection for emperor penguins at their breeding site and while feeding or molting at sea than protected areas that are land based Trathan et al. 2020, p.
7. To date, seven active breeding sites are protected within protected areas and seven are protected by the Ross Sea region marine protected area, including three colonies that are also in protected areas Trathan et al. 2020, p. 8 The management plans for these areas explain specific concerns about emperor penguins Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty 2020, unpaginated.
In the United States, the Antarctic Conservation Act of 1978 16 U.S.C.
2401 et seq. ACA also provides for the conservation and protection of the fauna and flora of Antarctica defined to mean the area south of 60 S latitude 16
U.S.C. 2402, and of the ecosystem upon which those fauna and flora depend, consistent with the Antarctic Treaty and the Protocol. The ACAs implementing regulations 45 CFR part 670 include provisions relating to the conservation of Antarctic animals, including native birds such as emperor penguins.
Additionally, the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Convention 33 UST 3476;
TIAS 10240, which establishes the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Commission, provides for the conservation and rational use of marine living resources in the Convention area.
The Commission was established in 1982, with the objective of conserving Antarctic marine life, in response to increasing commercial interest in Antarctic krill resources and a history of over-exploitation of several other marine resources in the Southern Ocean Commission 2020, unpaginated.
Twenty-five countries plus the European Union are party to the Convention, with another 10 countries
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