Quiero saber acerca de...

Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 147 / Wednesday, August 4, 2021 / Proposed Rules
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1

wet or dry, warm or cold years, redundancy supports the ability of the species to withstand catastrophic events for example, droughts, large pollution events, and representation supports the ability of the species to adapt over time to long-term changes in the environment for example, climate changes. In general, the more resilient and redundant a species is and the more representation it has, the more likely it is to sustain populations over time, even under changing environmental conditions. Using these principles, we identified the species ecological requirements for survival and reproduction at the individual, population, and species levels, and described the beneficial and risk factors influencing the species viability.
The SSA process can be categorized into three sequential stages. During the first stage, we evaluated the individual species life-history needs. The next stage involved an assessment of the historical and current condition of the species demographics and habitat characteristics, including an explanation of how the species arrived at its current condition. The final stage of the SSA involved making predictions about the species responses to positive and negative environmental and anthropogenic influences. Throughout all of these stages, we used the best available information to characterize viability as the ability of a species to sustain populations in the wild over time. We use this information to inform our regulatory decision.
Summary of Biological Status and Threats In this discussion, we review the biological condition of the species and its resources, and the threats that influence the species current and future condition, in order to assess the species overall viability and the risks to that viability.
We used the SSA framework to evaluate the current biological status of emperor penguins at mid-century, latecentury, and end-of-century years 2050, 2080, and 2100. Because of the uncertainty about the magnitude of climate change at late-century 2080
and end-of-century 2100 time horizons, we were unable to make reliable predictions about the emperor penguins response for the latter half of the century. Although the SSA report contains information on modeling results out to 2100, this proposed rule focuses on the threat of climate change and the emperor penguins response to that threat at mid-century. Therefore, we focus on the 2050 timeframe as the foreseeable future for this proposed rule
VerDate Sep<11>2014

16:17 Aug 03, 2021

Jkt 253001

see Foreseeable Future, above, for more information on how we determined the foreseeable future.
Species Needs/Ecological Requirements The SSA contains a detailed discussion of the emperor penguins individual and population requirements Service 2021, pp. 1427; we provide a summary here.
Emperor penguins rely on annual, stable fast ice to form breeding colonies;
pack ice belt of sea ice comprising ice floes of varying sizes that drifts in response to winds, currents, or other forces and polynyas to forage; sufficient prey resources year round; and areas of sea ice to haul out, molt, rest, and avoid predation Williams 1995, pp. 157159;
Ainley et al. 2010, p. 51; Trathan et al.
2020, p. 3. Polynyas are regions of biologically productive open water surrounded by ice and provide prime foraging habitat for emperor penguins because they often provide the closest open water to a colony Labrousse et al.
2019, p. 2; NSIDC 2020, unpaginated.
Emperor penguins are meso-predators near the top of the Southern Oceans food web Cherel and Kooyman 2008, p.
2. They hunt opportunistically and shift foraging strategies relative to prey abundance and distribution Trathan et al. 2020, p. 3; Williams 1995, p. 155.
The life histories of emperor penguins and their primary prey species e.g., Antarctic silverfish Pleurogramma antarctica and Antarctic krill Euphausia superba are tied to sea-ice extent and duration, and reproductive success of emperor penguins is highly dependent on foraging success. Thus, the interaction of demographic processes of reproduction and survival drives the population dynamics of emperor penguins, which are all related to the sea-ice environment.
Factors Influencing Viability of Emperor Penguins Based on emperor penguins life history and habitat needs, and in consultation with species experts, we identified the stressors likely to affect the species current and future condition and overall viability, as well as the sources of the stressors, and the existing conservation and regulatory measures that address certain stressors.
For a full description of our evaluation of the effects of these stressors, refer to the SSA report Service 2021, pp. 27
45.
Climate Change Climate change presents the most substantial threat facing emperor penguins. Other stressors on the species include tourism and research,
PO 00000

Frm 00017

Fmt 4702

Sfmt 4702

41923

contaminants and pollution, and commercial Antarctic krill fisheries, but these stressors are minor and not considered to be driving factors of the emperor penguins viability now or in the future. See the SSA report for a review of the minor threats Service 2021, pp. 4045.
Climate change is a change in the state of the climate that can be identified e.g., by using statistical tests by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, which refers to an agent outside the climate system causing a change in the climate system, such as modulations of the solar cycles or volcanic eruptions, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere e.g., GHG emissions or in land use IPCC
2014a, pp. 120, 123.
Earths climate has changed throughout history, and substantial regional variation exists in observations and projections of climate change impacts IPCC 2014b, p. 1137. The current global warming trend is significant and most of it is extremely likely to be the result of humans adding heat trapping greenhouse gases to the atmosphere IPCC 2014a, pp. 45;
NASA 2020, unpaginated.
Anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era, largely because of technology and economic and population growth. This increase has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years IPCC 2014a, p. 4. The planets average surface temperature has risen about 0.9 degrees Celsius C 1.62
degrees Fahrenheit F since the late 19th century, with most of the warming occurring in the past 35 years and with the 6 warmest years on record taking place since 2014 NASA 2020, unpaginated.
The Antarctic continent has seen less uniform temperature changes over the past 3050 years, compared to the Arctic, and most of Antarctica has yet to see dramatic warming Meredith et al.
2019, p. 212. The Antarctic Peninsula juts out into warmer waters north of Antarctica and is one of the fastest warming places on Earth, warming 2.5 C 4.5 F since 1950 Meredith et al.
2019, p. 212. However, warming has slowed on the peninsula since the late1990s; this variability is within the bounds of large natural decadal-scale regional climate variability Turner et al.
2016, p. 7; Stroeve 2021, pers. comm..

E:FRFM04AUP1.SGM

04AUP1