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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 246 / Tuesday, December 28, 2021 / Rules and Regulations process. In contrast, the test program will transition into a regulatory program in which all commercial vessel operators participate in an automated Form I418 data submission process upon this rules implementation.
As previously stated, CBP does not believe that this rule will directly affect the future volume of commercial vessel arrivals/departures, and thus predicts that future commercial vessel arrivals/
departures will be the same with and without this rules implementation i.e., the baseline. As Table 1 shows, CBP
estimates that almost 424,000
commercial vessel arrivals/departures will occur between FY 2021 and FY
2025, including 372,000 cargo and noncargo vessel arrivals/departures and 53,000 cruise ship arrivals/departures.
Nearly 98,000 23 percent of these arrivals/departures will correspond to former or ongoing in the absence of this rule I418 Automation test program participants, while the remaining 326,000 77 percent will correspond to non-former I418 Automation test program participants or non-test participants in the absence of this rule.
Nearly all of these vessel operators will be affected by the rule. Of the arrivals/
departures of former or ongoing I418

However, CBP recognizes the uncertainty in this assumption and that the rate of economic recovery from the COVID19 pandemic will depend on many factors, including how quickly businesses can recover, rates of infection, and global supply chains. CBP
does not believe that this rule will directly affect the volume of future commercial vessel arrivals/departures, and thus predicts that the projected arrivals/departures will be the same with and without this rules implementation i.e., the baseline.
To estimate future commercial vessel arrivals/departures with and without this rule, CBP first applies the projected growth rates for cargo and non-cargo vessel arrivals/departures of I418
Automation test program participants and non-participants 6.0 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively and cruise ship arrivals/departures 2.4 percent to their respective FY 2019 values see Table 1. CBP then projects the estimates forward through the period of analysis, FY 2021 to FY 2025. When making such projections, CBP presumes that the I418 Automation test program will continue to exist during the period of analysis in the absence of any rulemaking to automate the Form I418

Automation test program participants, CBP estimates that 50 percent will correspond to participants who fully participated in the test program and the remainder will correspond to participants who only partially participated see Table 1. According to field interviews, the majority of vessel operators participating in the I418
Automation test program continued to provide a paper Form I418 upon arrival/departure despite having submitted an electronic Form I418 to ensure full compliance with CBP
regulations.26 For the purposes of this analysis, CBP refers to these vessel operators as those who partially participated in the I418 Automation test program. Under the baseline, nonI418 Automation test program participants and 50 percent of test program participants will continue to submit paper Form I418s with each projected arrival/departure, while the remaining test participants will submit only automated versions of Form I418
with each future arrival/departure.
Alternatively, with the rule, each arrival/departure will presumably result in an automated Form I418
submission.

TABLE 1PROJECTED COMMERCIAL VESSEL ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES
FY 2019

FY 2021

Number of
Cargo & noncargo vessels
Cruise ships
Growth in Vessel Arrivals/Departures
Vessel Arrivals/Departures
Form I418 Submissions

64,155
64,155

4,319
4,319

Cargo & noncargo vessels
FY 2022
Cargo & noncargo vessels
Cruise ships
FY 2023
Cargo & noncargo vessels
Cruise ships
FY 2024

Cruise ships
Cargo & noncargo vessels
2.4%
4,638
4,638

1.9%
59,416
59,416

FY 2025

Cruise ships
Cargo & noncargo vessels
Cruise ships
2.4%
4,749
4,749

1.9%
58,287
58,287

2.4%
4,863
4,863

Total, FY 2021
FY 2025
Cargo & noncargo vessels
Cruise ships
302,946
302,946

23,202
23,202

Non-I418 Automation Test Program Participants
I

I

I

1.9%
62,936
62,936

I

2.4%
4,423
4,423

I

1.9%
61,740
61,740

I

2.4%
4,529
4,529

I

1.9%
60,567
60,567

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I418 Automation Test Program Participants Growth in Vessel Arrivals/Departures
Total Vessel Arrivals/Departures
Vessel Arrivals/Departures of Participants Fully Participating in Test
Vessel Arrivals/Departures of Participants Partially Participating in Test
Total Form I418 Submissions +
Form I418 Submissions from Participants Fully Participating in Test
Form I418 Submissions from Participants Partially Participating in Test

11,487

5,496

6.0%
12,176

2.4%
5,628

6.0%
12,907

2.4%
5,763

6.0%
13,681

2.4%
5,901

6.0%
14,502

2.4%
6,043

6.0%
15,372

2.4%
6,188

68,638

29,523

5,744

2,748

6,088

2,814

6,454

2,882

6,841

2,951

7,251

5,743
11,487

2,748
5,496

6,088
12,176

2,814
5,628

6,453
12,907

2,881
5,763

6,840
13,681

2,950
5,901

7,251
14,502

3,022

7,686

3,094

34,320

14,763

3,021
6,043

7,686
15,372

3,094
6,188

34,318
68,638

14,760
29,523

5,744

2,748

6,088

2,814

6,454

2,882

6,841

2,951

7,251

5,743

2,748

6,088

2,814

6,453

2,881

6,840

2,950

7,251

3,022

7,686

3,094

34,320

14,763

3,021

7,686

3,094

34,318

14,760

10,292
10,292

74,248
74,248

10,539
10,539

73,918
73,918

10,792
10,792

73,659
73,659

11,051
11,051

371,584
371,584

52,725
52,725

Total Vessel Arrivals/Departures
Form I418 Submissions

75,642
75,642

9,815
9,815

75,112
75,112

10,051
10,051

74,647
74,647

Not in period of analysis.
+ Form I418s submitted in both electronic and paper format only counted as one form submission.
Note: Estimates may not sum to total due to rounding.

khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with RULES

4. Costs of Rule This rule will automate the Form I
418 process for all commercial vessel operators and eliminate the regulatory 26 Although the I418 Automation test program waived the regulatory requirement to submit Form I418s by paper, certain test participants insisted on
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guidelines in place regarding the submission and retention of paper Form I418s. These changes will generally not introduce new costs to commercial vessel operators, but they will introduce
some costs to CBP. If vessel operators request a copy of their stamped and annotated electronic Form I418, which they receive by paper now for CBP
processing, they will incur negligible
submitting paper Form I418s to ensure full compliance with CBP regulations. Source: Email
correspondence with CBPs Office of Field Operations on February 23, 2016.

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