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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 246 / Tuesday, December 28, 2021 / Proposed Rules
growing sharply in the range of the North Feather DPS Service 2021, figures 38 and 39, pp. 105106 and negative consequences from wildfirerelated sedimentation to foothill yellowlegged frog reproduction have been documented in this DPS Service 2021, pp. 8687. The populations of the North Feather DPS occupy an area small enough that a large catastrophic event, such as a severe wildfire or prolonged drought, could result in a severe reduction in population size and extent for the DPS. Future resiliency for the North Feather DPS will be markedly reduced as a result of these increases in threats and increases in the synergistic effects of threat interactions. Thus, the projected increases in average relative risk of decline under future conditions under the mean change scenario are likely to decrease occupancy, abundance, and connectivity, with resiliency being markedly reduced from the DPSs current condition, putting the North Feather DPS at risk of functional extirpation or extirpation within 40
years.
As a result of the DPS having a large percentage 42 percent of recently occupied occurrences 20102020
within the occupied stream segments, and implementation of conservation measures to reduce the effects of altered stream hydrology and provide for an increase in populations, we have determined that the current condition of the DPS, although reduced, still exhibits sufficient resiliency, redundancy, and representation and would provide for, at a minimum, pockets of favorable conditions that allow the North Feather DPS to currently sustain its existing populations. However, future impacts from the threats facing the DPS are likely to cause declines in the DPSs population size and distribution. Thus, after assessing the best available information, we conclude that the North Feather DPS of the foothill yellowlegged frog is not currently in danger of extinction but is likely to become in danger of extinction within the foreseeable future throughout all of its range.
Central Coast DPS: Numerous threats are currently acting on the Central Coast DPS including altered hydrology Factor A, disease Factor C, drought Factor A, nonnative bullfrogs Factor C, impacts to habitat urbanization including development and roads, agriculture, trespass cannabis cultivation, extreme floods, and wildfire Factor A, recreation Factor E, the effects of climate change Factor E, and inadequacy of regulatory mechanisms Factor D. Human land use and population urban development in
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the northern portions of the DPSs range are high, and the proportion of forest and shrub cover across the DPSs range is low, with large areas being made up of lower elevation open oak woodlands or foothill grassland habitats. Seasonal precipitation within the range of the Central Coast DPS is extremely variable year-to-year, making stream habitat for the Central Coast DPS subject to drying.
This, in turn, shortens the breeding season; negatively affects habitat elements that are hydrology-dependent;
limits recruitment, survival, and connectivity; and exacerbates the effects of other threats e.g., wildfire, drought, nonnative predators, disease, and the effects of climate change. However, this variability has also resulted in the Central Coast area of California including the area occupied by the Central Coast DPS containing a high number of freshwater species that have evolved adaptations to their environment Howard et al. 2013, p. 5.
Below we summarize the resiliency, redundancy, and representation of the Central Coast DPS.
The Central Coast DPS has undergone historical range contraction in portions of its northern Contra Costa, Alameda, San Mateo, and northern Santa Cruz Counties and central southern Santa Clara and northern San Benito Counties regions. Currently, two clusters of stream segments have had recent 2000
2020 detections of the species, one cluster in the southern part and one cluster in the northern part of the DPSs range Service 2021, figure 52, p. 137.
Population size and abundance for the Central Coast DPS have been historically, and continue to be, small, with those populations in unregulated streams being larger and more productive Service 2021, pp. 136137
8.2 Central Coast. The southern cluster appears to have functional and genetic connectivity McCartneyMelstad et al. 2018, p. 117, figure 3, which assists in maintaining the clusters metapopulation integrity. The southern cluster also has fewer humancaused threats urbanization, high-level recreation due to its distance away from highly human-populated areas and its location on public lands BLMs Clear Creek Management Area CCMA.
Populations within the CCMA in San Benito and Fresno Counties are being monitored and managed by BLM, and currently appear to be self-sustaining BLM 2014, pp. 477, 99100. The northern cluster is proximate to highly urbanized areas of the south San Francisco Bay area and San Jose, California. The northern cluster also exhibits some genetic differentiation
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among subpopulations, indicating a lack of functional connectivity McCartneyMelstad et al. 2018, p. 117, figure 3.
However, two HCP/NCCPs East Contra Costa and Santa Clara Valley Jones &
Stokes 2006, entire; ICF Jones & Stokes 2009, entire that identify the foothill yellow-legged frog as a covered species have been approved and implemented.
These plans assist in ameliorating the current threats acting on the northern populations of the Central Coast DPS
and help conserve the DPS and its habitat within their jurisdictional boundaries.
Current resiliency of the Central Coast DPS is substantially reduced due to past impacts limiting connectivity between populations and existing populations having smaller population abundance and breeding Rose et al. 2020, p. 63, table 1. The average risk of population decline for the Central Coast DPS is considered high and numerous threats are currently acting on the DPS altered hydrology, drought, nonnative species, disease, and urbanization. The current overall redundancy for the Central Coast DPS is considered adequate to maintain the existing populations of the DPS.
This is because the Central Coast DPS
has numerous occupied stream segments that are spatially distributed across the DPSs range, and those stream segments exhibit variable environmental conditions providing for, at a minimum, refugia for the population. As a result of this distribution, the likelihood that a single catastrophic event would impact a significant proportion of the Central Coast DPSs populations to the point of extirpation or functional extirpation is extremely small. Current representation for the Central Coast DPS is considered sufficient to maintain its adaptive capacity. The Central Coast DPS has evolved in an area with high climatic variability and is most likely adapted to environmental changes. The Central Coast DPS is also one of the most genetically divergent for the foothill yellow-legged frog, indicating that the DPS still contains a significant amount of the taxons overall genetic diversity.
In the future, the average risk of decline for the existing populations is expected to increase by 14 percent and the number of populations at high risk of decline are expected to increase by 69
percent, under the mean change scenario. These changes are a result of increases in threats such as climateinduced demand for surface waters that is projected to increase by 5 to 20
percent from 19001970 levels by midcentury 2050 Averyt et al. 2013, p. 7, figure 7. Future increases in severe wildfires are expected. Despite wildfire trends in the Central Coast DPS being
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