Voglio sapere a riguardo di…

69963

Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 233 / Wednesday, December 8, 2021 / Proposed Rules FinCEN calculated the number of updated reports using the following general approach. FinCEN assumed that 1/12 of the initial reports that must be filed by reporting companies in existence on the effective date of the proposed rule would be filed in each month of the one year implementation period. The first month of implementation is assumed to have zero updated reports. To estimate the number of updated reports in the second month of implementation,
FinCEN multiplied the estimated distribution by 1/12 of the estimated initial reports within the first year, which is the estimated distribution of initial report filings in the first month with varying levels of beneficial owners reported. FinCEN then multiplied each element of the distribution by 110.016582N, where N is the number of beneficial owners on the respective line of the distribution; this is the probability that a given company with N beneficial owners would
experience a change in at least one beneficial owners reportable information in each month.259 This assumes that changes for a beneficial owner would be independent from changes for other beneficial owners of the same company. The following table provides the estimated number of updated reports for the second month of implementation using the described methodology:

TABLE 4ESTIMATED NUMBER OF BENEFICIAL OWNERSHIP UPDATED REPORTS IN YEAR 1, MONTH 2
Number of beneficial owners per report
Estimated number of updated reports
Estimated distribution
1
2
3
4
7.5

0.50
0.37
0.09
0.02
0.02

260 17,877

Total

61,483

FinCEN replicated this analysis for each remaining month of the first year.
The estimated initial reports monthly increase was captured by increasing the 1/12 ratio in the above equation.
Therefore, the equations in the prior table remained the same per month with the following change to 1/12: 2/12
Month 3; 3/12 Month 4; 4/12 Month 5; 5/12 Month 6; 6/12 Month 7; 7/
12 Month 8; 8/12 Month 9; 9/12
Month 10; 10/12 Month 11; and 11/
12 Month 12. The total of all monthly estimates for Year 1 calculated in this fashion is 4,057,848 updated reports.

Estimated monthly updated reports for all subsequent months were calculated using the same equation, but with a 12/
12 ratio of initial reports all initial reports. This estimate is approximately 737,790.50, multiplied by 12 for an annual estimate of 8,853,486 updated reports.
FinCEN conducted similar analysis to estimate the number of updates to applicant information on a monthly basis.265 FinCEN assessed that the most likely causes for updates to reporting companies initial reports involving an applicant is a change in address. Given
261 26,239
262 9,494
2632,790
264 5,083

data referenced above, there is an 8.9824695 percent probability of a change in address in a year, with a monthly probability of 0.0074854.
FinCEN assumes that a probable distribution of the number of applicants per report is 90 percent with one applicant and 10 percent with two applicants. Using this probability and distribution, FinCEN calculated the monthly number of updates related to an applicant by using the same calculation as beneficial owner updated reports.

TABLE 5ESTIMATED NUMBER OF APPLICANT UPDATED REPORTS IN YEAR 1, MONTH 2
Estimated distribution
jspears on DSK121TN23PROD with PROPOSALS4

Number of applicants per report
Estimated number of updated reports
1
2

0.90
0.10

266 14,526

Total

17,742

267 3,216

The total of all monthly estimates for Year 1 calculated in this fashion is 1,170,937 updated reports. Estimated monthly updated reports for all subsequent months were calculated using the same equation, but with a 12/
12 ratio of initial reports all initial
reports. This estimate is approximately 212,897.60 multiplied by 12 for an annual estimate of 2,554,771 updated reports. Combining the estimates of beneficial ownership and applicant updates, FinCEN estimates 5,228,785
updated reports in Year 1 and
11,408,257 updated reports in Year 2
and beyond. FinCEN welcomes comments on the appropriateness of this analysis for calculating the total required number of updated reports.

259 Assuming that the probability of change in a given period for a single beneficial owner is p, then the probability of no change of a single beneficial
owner is 1p. The probability of a company with one beneficial owner having a change is therefore 11p. The probability of a company with two
beneficial owners having a change is 11p2, etc.

VerDate Sep<11>2014

19:51 Dec 07, 2021

Jkt 256001

PO 00000

Frm 00045

Fmt 4701

Sfmt 4702

E:FRFM08DEP4.SGM

08DEP4