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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 229 / Thursday, December 2, 2021 / Notices
trends available for H. nobilis, such as abundance, growth rate/productivity, spatial structure, connectivity, and diversity to determine the potential risks these demographic factors pose to the species. The information from this demographic risk analysis in conjunction with the available information on the section 4a1
factors was then synthesized to determine an overall risk of extinction for H. nobilis.
The appropriate time horizon for evaluating whether a species is more likely than not to be at a high level of risk in the foreseeable future depends on various case-and species-specific factors. For example, the time horizon may reflect certain life history characteristics e.g., long generational time or late age-at-maturity and may also reflect the time frame or rate over which identified threats are likely to impact the biological status of the species e.g., the rate of disease spread.
The appropriate time horizon coincides with the period of time over which reliable projections can be made as to the specific threats facing the species as well as the species response, but it is not limited to the period that status can be quantitatively modeled or predicted within predetermined limits of statistical confidence. Reliable projections may be qualitative in nature.
The foreseeable future for this extinction risk analysis was considered to extend out several decades >30
years. Because of the species life history traits, with longevity estimated to be several decades, age of sexual maturity ranging from three to seven years, density-dependent reproduction and potentially low rates of recruitment, it would likely take more than a few decades for any recent management actions to be realized and reflected in population abundance. Similarly, the impact of present threats to the species could be realized in the form of noticeable population declines within this timeframe, as demonstrated in the available survey and fisheries data see Populations and Abundance section in NMFS 2021. As the main potential operative threats to the species are overutilization and the inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms, this timeframe would allow for reliable predictions regarding the impact of current levels of fishery-related mortality on the biological status of the species. Additionally, this time frame allows for consideration of the impacts on habitat from climate change while the significance of these effects are still uncertain.
The ability to determine and assess risk factors to a marine species is often
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limited when quantitative estimates of abundance and life history information are lacking. Therefore, in assessing threats and subsequent extinction risk of a data-limited species such as H. nobilis, we include both qualitative and quantitative information. In assessing extinction risk to H. nobilis, we considered the demographic viability factors developed by McElhany et al.
2000 and the risk matrix approach developed by Wainwright and Kope 1999 to organize and summarize extinction risk considerations. In this approach, the collective condition of individual populations is considered at the species level according to four demographic viability factors:
Abundance, productivity, spatial structure/connectivity, and diversity.
These viability factors reflect concepts that are well-founded in conservation biology and that individually and collectively provide strong indicators of extinction risk.
Using these concepts, we evaluated extinction risk by assigning a risk level to each of the four demographic viability factors and five threats-based listing factors. The levels are defined as follows:
Low risk: Based on the best available information, it is unlikely this threat is causing negative impacts to the species at the population level throughout its range, such that it is not likely to be affecting extinction risk for the species:
Moderate risk: Based on the best available information, this threat is likely causing negative impacts to the species at the population level in at least some portion of its range, such that it may be affecting extinction risk for the species; and High risk: Based on the best available information, this threat is likely causing negative impacts to the species at the population level throughout its range, such that it is likely affecting extinction risk for the species.
Aditionally, we provided a confidence rating to the impact of each threat as well as the demographic factors based on the available information. The confidence rating scores were adapted from Lack et al.
2014 and are defined as follows:
0 no confidence = No information;
1 low confidence = Very limited information;
2 medium confidence = Some reliable information available, but reasonable inference and extrapolation required; and 3 high confidence = Reliable information with little to no extrapolation or inference required.

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We also considered the potential interactions among demographic and listing factors. Finally, we examined the levels assigned to each demographic and listing factor along with the uncertainty rating to determine the overall risk of extinction see Extinction Risk Determination below.
Demographic Risk Analysis Abundance As discussed in the Abundance and Trends section of the Status Review Report, across the range of H. nobilis, the species is either considered less abundant, or its status is unknown based on a lack of data, with the exception of the Seychelles see Table 1
in NMFS 2021. In fact, in 18 of the 25
countries where H. nobilis is reported to occur, the abundance of the species and trends in abundance are unknown due to a lack of data. Similar to other teatfish species, H. nobilis is thought to be naturally rare when compared to other species of sea cucumber Purcell, pers.
comm. 2019 in CITES 2019; CITES
2019; Conand et al. 2013; Uthicke et al.
2004.
H. nobilis has not been reported to be extirpated from any range countries but has been observed to no longer occur at several survey locations within some some countries across its range, including Geyser Bank in Mayotte and Eel Garden in Egypt see Table 1 in NMFS 2021; CITES 2019; Conand et al.
2013; Uthicke et al. 2004. Throughout the speciess range, the historical abundance of H. nobilis is uncertain, but the abundance of other sea cucumber species have been reported to be declineing Kinch et al. 2008; Hasan and El-Rady, 2012; Friedman et al. 2011;
Lane and Limbong, 2013; Ducarme 2016; FAO 2019. The available data indicate population declines or possible population declines of H. nobilis at survey locations in Chagos, Egypt, Madagascar, Mayotte, Saudi Arabia, and Tanzania. In Chagos at Salomon atoll, there was a decrease in density from 83
ind. ha1 to 10 ind. ha1 from 2002
2006 Price et al. 2010. In Egypt, at Wadi Quny and Eel Garden in the Gulf of Aqaba the species was observed at densities of 0.7 ind. ha1 and 1.3 ind.
ha1 respectively in 2002, but were not observed at these locations in 2006
Hasan & El-Rady, 2012. However, confirmed reports of the species were made off Pharoan Island in April 2015
Hasan & Johnson 2019 and H. nobilis has been reported to be commonly seen by divers as recently as 2019 in Egypts waters FAO 2019. For Madagascar, there are anecdotal reports that H.
nobilis is assumed to be depleted as
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