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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 228 / Wednesday, December 1, 2021 / Proposed Rules Exhibit 2 presents the number of affected entities that are expected to be impacted by the proposed rule. The
average number of affected entities is calculated using OFLC H2A labor certification data from 2016 through
68187

2020. The Department provides this estimate and uses it to estimate the costs of the proposed rule.

EXHIBIT 2NUMBER OF AFFECTED ENTITIES BY TYPE
FY 20162020 average Entity type
Number
Annual Unique H2A Applicants

8,204

certified H2A workers based on fiscal year FY 20122020 H2A program data, presented in Exhibit 3.

Growth Rate The Department estimated growth rates for applications processed and
EXHIBIT 3HISTORICAL H2A PROGRAM DATA
Applications certified
Fiscal year 2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

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The geometric growth rate for certified H2A workers using the program data in Exhibit 3 is calculated as 15.8 percent. This growth rate, applied to the analysis timeframe of 2022 to 2031, would result in more H
2A certified workers than projected employment of workers in the relevant H2A SOC codes by BLS.77 Therefore, to estimate realistic growth rates for the analysis, the Department applied an autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA model to the FY 2012
2020 H2A program data to forecast workers and applications, and estimated geometric growth rates based on the forecasted data. The Department conducted multiple ARIMA models on each set of data and used common goodness of fit measures to determine how well each ARIMA model fit the data.78 Multiple models yielded indistinctive measures of goodness of fit. Therefore, each model was used to project workers and applications through 2031. Then, a geometric growth 77 Comparing BLS 2029 projections for combined agricultural workers with a 15.8 percent growth rate of H2A workers yields estimated H2A workers that are about 107 percent greater than BLS 2029
projections. The projected workers for the agricultural sector were obtained from BLSs Occupational Projections and Worker Characteristics, which may be accessed at https
www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupational-projectionsand-characteristics.htm.

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5,278
5,706
6,476
7,194
8,297
9,797
11,319
12,626
13,552

Workers certified 85,248
98,814
116,689
139,725
165,741
199,924
242,853
258,446
275,430

Compensation Rates In section VI.A.3 Subject-by-Subject Analysis, the Department presents the costs, including labor, associated with the implementation of the provisions of
the proposed rule. Exhibit 4 presents the hourly compensation rates for the occupational categories expected to experience a change in the number of hours necessary to comply with the proposed rule. The Department used the mean hourly wage rate for private sector Human Resources Specialists SOC code 131071.79 Wage rates are adjusted to reflect total compensation, which includes nonwage factors such as overhead and fringe benefits e.g., health and retirement benefits. We use an overhead rate of 17 percent 80 and a fringe benefits rate based on the ratio of average total compensation to average wages and salaries in 2021. For the private sector employees, we use a fringe benefits rate of 42 percent.81 We then multiply the loaded wage factor by the wage rate to calculate an hourly compensation rate. The Department used the hourly compensation rates presented in Exhibit 4 throughout this analysis to estimate the labor costs for each provision.

78 The Department estimated models with different lags for autoregressive and moving averages, and orders of integration: ARIMA0,2,0;
0,2,1; 0,2,2; 1,2,1; 1,2,2; 2,2,2. For each model we used the Akaike Information Criteria AIC goodness of fit measure.
79 BLS, May 2020 National Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates: 131071
Human Resources Specialist, https www.bls.gov/
oes/current/oes131071.htm last modified Mar. 31, 2021.

80 See Cody Rice, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Wage Rates for Economic Analyses of the Toxics Release Inventory Program June 10, 2002, available at https www.regulations.gov/document?
D=EPA-HQ-OPPT-2014-0650-0005.
81 See Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, https www.bls.gov/news.release/
ecec.toc.htm last modified Sept. 16, 2021. This shows the ratio of total compensation to wages and salaries for all private industry workers.

rate was calculated using the forecasted data from each model and an average was taken across each model. This resulted in an estimated growth rate of 3.1 percent for H2A applications and 5.6 percent for H2A certified workers.
The estimated growth rates for applications 3.1 percent and workers 5.6 percent were applied to the estimated costs and transfers of the proposed rule to forecast participation in the H2A program.
Estimated Number of Workers and Change in Hours The Department presents the estimated average number of applicants and the change in burden hours required for rule familiarization in section VI.A.3 Subject-by-Subject Analysis.

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