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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 227 / Tuesday, November 30, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
68099

Table 25. Value ofCOVID-19 Risk Reductions Using Range ofVSL Estimates, 3% Discount Rate Value of Risk Reduction VSL or VSC Estimate $ millions
Risk Reduction Low
Central
High
Low
Central
High
$5,367,303

$11,501,365

$17,507,633

$99.6

$213.4

$324.9

Mild Cases
$2,728

$5,846

$8,900

$3.2

$6.9

$10.5

Severe Cases
$6,115

$13,104

$19,947

$0.8

$1.6

$2.5

Critical Cases
$846,720

$1,814,400

$2,761,920

$6.9

$14.8

$22.6

$110.5

$236.8

$360.5

Mortality Reductions Morbidity Reductions
Total Value of Risk Reductions
In our main analysis, we assume that the vaccination, masking, and other requirements will be in effect for the entire time horizon of the analysis. We also considered a scenario that these requirements will end at an earlier point in time. Specifically, we evaluated a scenario that the requirements would be repealed through subsequent rulemaking or expire on January 16, 2022, which corresponds to the last day of the most recent renewal of the COVID19 public health emergency.142 For this scenario, we assume that Head Start staff are surprised on January 16, 2022 by the announcement, and that unvaccinated staff discontinue efforts to get fully vaccinated. This results in a lower vaccine coverage rate of between 84.9% and
91.5%, compared to a vaccine coverage rate of between 86.6% and 95.0% under the scenario of the requirement in effect through at least January 31, 2022. This would result in smaller reductions in mortality and morbidity risks, and smaller reductions in absenteeism. It would also eliminate the costs from staff vacancies and training attributable to the interim final rule, substantially reduce the costs of masking and testing; and reduce the total costs of vaccinations.
J. Analysis of Regulatory Alternatives to the Rule We evaluated several regulatory alternatives to the interim final rule. First, we
assessed the impact of not including volunteers in the scope of the vaccine requirement of the interim final rule. Under this regulatory alternative, the reductions in mortality and morbidity for volunteers induced to get fully vaccinated outlined in Tables 12 and 13 would not occur. We also anticipate a reduction in costs attributable to the rule related to the costs related to vaccination described in in Table 18. Table 26 reports the net benefits of this policy alternative, using a 3% discount rate.
Compared to our analysis of the interim final rule, this option would result in lower net benefits under the vaccine coverage scenarios that we analyzed.

Low
Primary
High
Benefits
$69,232,095

$115,431,524

$161,630,929

Costs
$78,731,453

$44,887,768

$11,044,084

Net Benefits
-$9,499,358

$70,543,756

$150,586,846

We also considered two alternatives to the masking requirement. One alternative includes eliminating the masking requirement entirely. This policy alternative would reduce the cost estimates of the interim final rule by $1.7 million in line with
the calculations presented in Table 19. A
second alternative would limit the masking requirement to unvaccinated individuals.
Under this policy alternative, the weekly masks needed for Head Start staff and volunteers would be reduced significantly, in
line with the vaccine coverage rates. When the vaccination requirement takes effect, only the 5% of Head Start staff and volunteers who receive an exemption would be expected to wear a mask. This reduces the weekly masks for Staff and volunteers
142 https www.phe.gov/emergency/news/
healthactions/phe/Pages/COVDI-15Oct21.aspx.

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Table 26. Net Benefits of Policy Alternative, 3% Discount Rate, 2020 dollars