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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 223 / Tuesday, November 23, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with RULES1

natural gas and propane prices projected in 2027 are lower $10.99/MMBtu in 2019$ and $21.11/MMBtu in 2020$, respectively compared to the 2013
natural gas and propane prices used in the April 2010 final rule $13.47/
MMBtu in 2019$ and $33.12/MMBtu in 2020$, respectively.24 Additionally, the 30-year trends are comparable in the two AEO editions. Due to comparable energy use and lower energy prices, DOE has determined that the annual operating cost of vented heaters has either decreased or not changed significantly from that estimated in the April 2010 final rule.
As vented heaters have not significantly changed since the April 2010 final rule, DOE has determined that the product lifetime has remained largely the same. DOE has also determined that residential discount rates have not changed significantly from those in the April 2010 final rule.
Because the total installed costs are estimated not to have changed significantly, and operating costs are estimated to be comparable, DOE has determined that the LCC savings for each efficiency level of vented heaters are similar to the estimates in the April 2010 final rule. Further, DOE has determined that the relative comparisons between each efficiency level for each product class remain unchanged and that the conclusions from the April 2010 final rule and October 2016 final determination are still applicable.
The PBP is the amount of time it takes the consumer, in a typical case, to recover the estimated higher purchase expense of more energy-efficient products through lower operating costs.
Numerically, the PBP is the ratio of the increase in purchase expense i.e., due to a more energy-efficient design to the decrease in annual operating expenditures. This type of calculation is known as a simple payback period, because it does not take into account changes in operating expense over time or the time value of money i.e., the calculation is done at an effective discount rate of zero percent. Payback periods are expressed in years. Payback periods greater than the life of the product indicate that the increased total installed cost is not recovered by the reduced operating expenses.
As previously stated, DOE has estimated that the total installed costs www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/ Last accessed July 20, 2021.
24 For the April 2010 final rule, the fraction of propane installations is 12 percent for vented gas wall fan and vented gas wall gravity, 9 percent for vented gas floor furnace heaters, and 38 percent for vented gas room heaters.

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have not changed significantly, and operating costs are comparable to the April 2010 final rule results. Therefore, DOE has determined that the simple payback period for each efficiency level of vented heaters is similar to the simple payback period results from the April 2010 final rule. Further, DOE
has determined that the relative comparisons between each efficiency level for each product class remain unchanged and that the conclusions from the April 2010 final rule and October 2016 final determination are still applicable.
In response to the December 2020
NOPD, the Joint Gas Utilities stated their support for DOEs tentative determination in the December 2020
NOPD that amended energy conservation standards are not costeffective on an energy price basis, based on the LCC and PBP analyses. Joint Gas Utilities, No. 15 at p. 3 For gas wall gravity type vented heaters that do not have electricity, NEEA requested that DOE consider the costs of bringing an electrical connection to the unit and adding a circulation fan in its LCC
analysis to determine whether updated standards would be cost-effective.
NEEA, No. 20 at p. 2 Flux Tailor suggested that DOE also consider projected electricity prices in its analysis as they may well increase in the future, even if natural gas prices are predicted to decrease. Flux Tailor, No.
21 at p. 42
In chapter 8 section 8.2.3.4 of the TSD
for the April 2010 final rule, DOE stated that it included an additional installation cost for the design options that require electricity. Therefore, the cost of adding an electrical connection is already accounted for in the LCC
analysis for the product classes that do not use electricity at the baseline and have higher efficiency levels which use electricity. DOE disagrees that adding an aftermarket circulation fan to a gas wall gravity type vented heater should be considered in the LCC analysis. The addition of an external fan would help circulate heated air throughout the space but does not help with the heat exchange process and therefore would not have a noticeable effect on the efficiency of the gas wall gravity type vented heater as measured by appendix O. Further, adding an internal circulation fan to a gas wall gravity type vented heater would make the unit a gas wall fan type vented heater and would therefore not be covered by the gas wall gravity type vented heater product class and the energy conservation standards.
DOE agrees with Flux Tailor and uses projected electricity prices in its LCC
analysis.

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g. Shipments In the February 2019 RFI, DOE stated that from the April 2010 final rule, the Department has included vented heater historical shipment data from AHRI for gas wall vented heaters from 1990 to 1998 and from 2000 to 2006, for gas floor vented heaters from 1990 to 2007, and for gas room vented heaters from 1990 to 2005. DOE also has limited disaggregated shipments for fan type and gravity type gas wall vented heaters and by input capacity. DOE requested comment on the annual sales data i.e., number of shipments for each vented heater product class from 20082018. 84
FR 6095, 61046105 Feb. 26, 2019. In 2016, AHRI presented data showing the percentage change in total shipments for the years 20102015 compared with the total shipments over the period 2001
2006, estimating that gas wall vented heater including both fan and gravity type units shipments were 21 percent less, that direct vent gas wall vented heater a form of gas wall vented heater shipments were 31 percent less, and that gas room vented heater shipments were 44 percent less.25 AHRI did not have an active statistics program for gas floor vented heaters and was attempting to collect annual shipments information for recent years through a special data collection.
In response to the December 2020
NOPD, AHRI stated that it was conducting a special data collection to gather shipment data for each vented heater product class from 20162018, and that these data will be provided to DOE at a later date. AHRI, No. 6 at p.
4 At this time, AHRI has not submitted data for the 20162018 time period.
In response to the December 2020
NOPD, the CA IOUs urged DOE to find new sources of data for the shipment analysis, noting that, because of the Great Recession, relying on pre-2010
shipment data for DHE market forecasting may not be prudent. CA
IOUs, No. 17 at p. 3 CA IOUs also commented that AHRI is conducting a special data collection of shipments for vented heater products from 20162018
and encouraged DOE to delay any final determination until additional shipments data from the DHE industry is received and analyzed. CA IOUs, No.
17 at p. 3
As stated in the December 2020
NOPD, AHRI provided the percent change in total shipments for the vented heater market for the years of 2010
25 AHRI Comment to the NOPD for Direct Heating Equipment published in 2016 June 10, 2016
Comment No. 7 Available at:
www.regulations.gov/document/EERE-2016-BTSTD-0007-0007 Last accessed July 20, 2021.

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