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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 214 / Tuesday, November 9, 2021 / Proposed Rules
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30 years under even the most optimistic scenario.
The best available information shows that the species viability is expected to decline with projected quasi-extirpation of most units to occur within the next 30 years and within the next 50 years for the Northern Mississippi-East unit Service 2021, pp. 7879. Based on modeling results, which address uncertainty regarding the extent and severity of threats, resiliency is expected to decline dramatically under all scenarios. Regardless of whether the projected timeframe to quasi-extirpation is fully accurate, the projected loss of resiliency across the range of the species will place the alligator snapping turtle at risk of extinction within the foreseeable future across all of its range due to the inability of this species to effectively reproduce and maintain viability in the coming decades in light of ongoing threats.
Thus, after assessing the best available information regarding the threats acting on the species and the species response as described in the future condition analysis Service 2021, pp. 5985, we conclude that the alligator snapping turtle is likely to become in danger of extinction within the foreseeable future throughout all of its range.
Status Throughout a Significant Portion of Its Range Under the Act and our implementing regulations, a species may warrant listing if it is in danger of extirpation or likely to become so in the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range. The court in Center for Biological Diversity v. Everson, 2020
WL 437289 D.D.C. Jan. 28, 2020
Center for Biological Diversity, vacated the aspect of the Final Policy on Interpretation of the Phrase Significant Portion of Its Range in the Endangered Species Acts Definitions of Endangered Species and Threatened Species 79 FR 37578; July 1, 2014
that provided that the Service does not undertake an analysis of significant portions of a species range if the species warrants listing as threatened throughout all of its range. Therefore, we proceed to evaluating whether the species is endangered in a significant portion of its rangethat is, whether there is any portion of the species range for which both 1 the portion is significant; and 2 the species is in danger of extirpation in that portion.
Depending on the case, it might be more efficient for us to address the significance question or the status question first. We can choose to address either question first. Regardless of which question we address first, if we
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reach a negative answer with respect to the first question that we address, we do not need to evaluate the other question for that portion of the species range.
Following the courts holding in Center for Biological Diversity, we now consider whether there are any significant portions of the species range where the species is in danger of extirpation now i.e., endangered. In undertaking this analysis for alligator snapping turtle, we choose to address the status question first. We consider information pertaining to the geographic distribution of both the species and the threats that the species faces to identify any portions of the range where the species is endangered.
The statutory difference between an endangered species and a threatened species is the time frame in which the species becomes in danger of extinction;
an endangered species is in danger of extinction now while a threatened species is not in danger of extinction now but is likely to become so in the foreseeable future. Thus, we reviewed the best scientific and commercial data available regarding the time horizon for the threats that are driving the alligator snapping turtle to warrant listing as a threatened species throughout all of its range. We considered whether the threats are geographically concentrated in any portion of the species range in a way that would accelerate the time horizon for the species exposure or response to the threats. We examined the following threats: Harvest legal and poaching, fishing bycatch recreational and commercial, and nest predation.
We also considered the cumulative effects acting on the species with additional stressors such as disease, nest parasites, and climate change.
After considering the threats acting on the species, we identified a concentration of threats in Mississippi and Louisiana due to legal harvest, albeit more limited in Mississippi. The three analysis units that overlap with these two States include the Alabama, Southern Mississippi-East, and Southern Mississippi-West units. The Alabama unit has the greatest abundance and density estimates of all seven analysis units, indicating this unit at the core of the range may be a stronghold for the species in terms of resiliency and contributing to the species overall viability. The Alabama unit currently demonstrates high resiliency in comparison to the other units; however, due to the continued compounding effects of the threats acting on the species in the Alabama unit, resiliency will decline in the future.

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The estimated abundance within the Southern Mississippi-East unit is around 50,000 individuals; the major threats acting on the species in this unit include nest predation and harvest.
Legal harvest has been ongoing in the Louisiana and Mississippi portions of this unit; however, the species is not in danger of extinction now due to the high abundance of turtles and augmented populations from conservation efforts of head-start and release programs. The historical and current distribution in this unit has some shifts in county and parish occurrences with some range contraction in western Tennessee and expansion in Mississippi and Louisiana Service 2021, p. 42. Additionally, the species has been managed through conservation efforts by supplementing the population from a captive breeding program that raises the turtle beyond the first few years and releases them into the wild. Due to the current condition of the population within this unit, it is not currently in danger of extinction;
however, the ongoing threats will cause the species to decline in the future.
The Southern Mississippi-West unit has an estimated current abundance of 15,000 alligator snapping turtles, but impoundments have fragmented the habitat in this unit. About 9 percent of the unit is the upper northwestern part of Louisiana where legal harvest is still allowed. When considering the historical and current ranges, there has been some range contraction in some counties in Oklahoma; however, occurrence is unknown, meaning there have been no recent surveys or documented records in some of those counties. The species has become virtually extirpated in Kansas. The species is still found in all parishes in Louisiana with no changes in the historical distribution. In Texas, there have been changes from occupied to unknown status and vice versa, but no contractions of the species range have been confirmed between historical and current distribution. Because the species is still widely distributed across this unit as described in the species current condition, the population within this unit has sufficient resiliency such that the species is not currently in danger of extinction in this unit, but the ongoing threats will cause the species to decline in the future.
Although the threat of legal harvest is concentrated in the Mississippi and Louisiana areas of the Alabama, Southern Mississippi-East, and Southern Mississippi-West units, the best scientific and commercial data available do not indicate that the concentration of threats, or the species
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