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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 203 / Monday, October 25, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
estimate their present value. In this final determination, DOE estimated separate discount rates for commercial, industrial, and outdoor stationary applications. DOE used discount rate data from a 2019 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report.18 The average discount rates, weighted by the shares of each rate value in the sectoral distributions, are 8.3 percent for commercial end-users, 8.8 percent for
industrial end-users, and 3.2 percent for outdoor stationary end-users. For more information regarding discount rates, see chapter 8 of the final determination TSD.

certification database collected on May 5, 2021. The compliance certification database does not contain models in the >1,000 W and 2,000 W equipment class; therefore, DOE assumed 56
percent of the market is at the baseline and 44 percent of the market is at EL 1, based on MHLF catalog data. The complete efficiency distribution for 2025 is shown in Table IV.17.

8. Energy Efficiency Distribution in the No-New-Standards Case DOE developed a no-new-standards case efficiency distribution using model count data from the compliance
TABLE IV.17MHLF EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTION BY EQUIPMENT CLASS FOR 2025
Equipment class
50 W and 100 W
%

Efficiency level
0 1
2 3

82.0
1.2
9.5
7.4

>100 W and <150 W
% 16.4
32.9
0.0
50.7

150 W and 250 W
%

>250 W and 500 W
%

>500 W and 1,000 W
%

>1000 W and 2,000 W
%

53.6
40.1
6.3

95.6
1.1
3.3

97.1
2.9

56.0
44.0

Columns may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

The payback period is the amount of time it takes the consumer to recover the additional installed cost of moreefficient products, compared to baseline products, through energy cost savings.
Payback periods are expressed in years.
Payback periods that exceed the life of the product mean that the increased total installed cost is not recovered in reduced operating expenses.
The inputs to the PBP calculation for each efficiency level are the change in total installed cost of the product and the change in the first-year annual operating expenditures relative to the baseline. The PBP calculation uses the same inputs as the LCC analysis, except that discount rates are not needed.
As noted previously, EPCA
establishes a rebuttable presumption that a standard is economically justified if the Secretary finds that the additional cost to the consumer of purchasing a product complying with an energy conservation standard level will be less than three times the value of the first years energy savings resulting from the standard, as calculated under the applicable test procedure. 42 U.S.C.
6295o2Biii For each considered
DOE uses projections of annual equipment shipments to calculate the national impacts of potential amended or new energy conservation standards on energy use and NPV.19 The shipments model takes an accounting approach, tracking market shares of each equipment class and the vintage of units in the stock. Stock accounting uses equipment shipments as inputs to estimate the age distribution of inservice equipment stocks for all years.
The age distribution of in-service equipment stocks is a key input to calculations of both the NES and NPV, because operating costs for any year depend on the age distribution of the stock.
The stock turnover model calculates demand for new MHLFs based on the expected demand for replacement MHLFs and the decrease in MHLF
demand due to the adoption of out-ofscope LED alternatives. The model is initialized using a time series of
18 Fujita, K.S. Commercial, Industrial, and Institutional Discount Rate Estimation for Efficiency Standards Analysis: Sector-Level Data 19982018.
2019. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory:
Berkeley, CA. Last accessed January 15, 2020.
https eta.lbl.gov/publications/commercialindustrial-institutional.

19 DOE uses data on manufacturer shipments as a proxy for national sales, as aggregate data on sales are lacking. In general, one would expect a close correspondence between shipments and sales.
20 HID Lamp Sales Indices. National Electrical Manufacturing Association. www.nema.org/

analytics/Indices/view/Fourth-Quarter-2019-HIDLamp-Indexes-Decrease-Compared-to-PreviousQuarter-and-Year. Last accessed on May 5, 2021.
21 Bass, F.M. A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables. Management Science. 1969.
155: pp. 215227.

9. Payback Period Analysis
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efficiency level, DOE determined the value of the first years energy savings by calculating the energy savings in accordance with the applicable DOE test procedure, and multiplying those savings by the average energy price projection for the year in which compliance with the amended standards would be required.

historical shipments data compiled from the 2014 MHLF final rule and data from NEMA. The historical shipments for 2008 from the 2014 MHLF final rule were projected to 2018 using NEMA
sales indices from 2008 to 2018. 79 FR
7746, 778889. DOE used NEMA
provided sales indices for the second quarter of 2020 for metal halide lamps to project the historical shipments forward to 2020.20 The updated projection from the NEMA data gives a faster decline of historical shipments compared to the projection used in the MHLF NOPD. 85 FR 47472, 47495.
NEMA commented in their response to the MHLF NOPD that the market for MHLFs has continued to show a steady decline since the July 2019 RFI in favor of LED Technology. NEMA, No. 12 at p. 2 With the diminishing shipments there is no reasonable possibility of industry recovering investments in new conservation standards of MHLFs. As in the previous rulemaking, DOE
continued to assume that an increasing fraction of the MHLF market will move to out-of-scope LED alternatives over the course of the shipments analysis period.
85 FR 47472, 47495. DOE modelled the incursion of LED equipment in the form of a Bass diffusion curve.21 The parameters for the Bass diffusion curve are based on fitting a Bass diffusion curve to market share data for general service LED lamps based on data
See chapter 8 of the final determination TSD for further information on the derivation of the efficiency distributions.

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