Federal Register - October 7, 2021
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Source: Federal Register
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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 192 / Thursday, October 7, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
TABLE F2EFFECT OF THE PROPOSED RULE ON TITLE X CLIENTS UNDER DIFFERENT BASELINE ASSUMPTIONS
Year 2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
PDV, 3%
PDV, 7%
Annualized, 3%
Annualized, 7%
As discussed earlier, the Department acknowledges uncertainty in how quickly the Title X program will be able to restore service to levels experienced prior to the declines associated with the 2019 rule. The primary analysis adopts a two-year phase for grantees, subrecipients, service sites, and clients served to reach the long-run equilibrium estimates. If a large number of service
Proposed rule
Proposed rule, LB
Proposed rule, UB
735,892
1,471,783
1,471,783
1,471,783
1,471,783
6,025,877
5,346,852
1,315,778
1,304,047
1,223,553
2,447,106
2,447,106
2,447,106
2,447,106
10,019,113
8,890,110
2,187,719
2,168,215
444,092
888,183
888,183
888,183
888,183
3,636,461
3,226,687
794,038
786,959
estimates that adopt alternative assumptions about the length of time it will take to reach the long-run equilibrium estimates. Table F3 presents the primary estimates of clients served, based on a two-year phase-in, estimates without a phase-in, and estimates with a three-year phase-in assumption.
sites have shut down permanently, the assumption of a two-year phase-in would likely result in an overestimate of the final rules effect over the time horizon of the analysis. Similarly, if a small number of service sites have shut down, the analysis would tend to underestimate the effect of the final rule. Therefore, as a second sensitivity analysis, the Department presents
TABLE F3TITLE X CLIENTS WITH DIFFERENT PHASE-IN ASSUMPTIONS
Year 2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Baseline
Table F4 calculates the effect of the final rule with different phase-in assumptions. These estimates are reported by year, as well as in present value and annualized for the five-year
Proposed rule, 2-year phase-in
Proposed rule, no phase-in
Proposed rule, 3-year phase-in
3,247,958
3,983,849
3,983,849
3,983,849
3,983,849
3,983,849
3,983,849
3,983,849
3,983,849
3,983,849
3,002,660
3,493,255
3,983,849
3,983,849
3,983,849
2,512,066
2,512,066
2,512,066
2,512,066
2,512,066
time horizon of the analysis, applying a three percent and a seven percent discount rate. Compared to the primary estimates, the assumption of no phasein yields annualized effects of the final
rule that are approximately 12 percent higher. Assuming a three-year phase-in yields annualized effects that are about 12 percent lower than the primary estimates.
TABLE F4EFFECT OF THE PROPOSED RULE ON TITLE X CLIENTS WITH DIFFERENT PHASE-IN ASSUMPTIONS
Year
Proposed rule, 2-year phase-in
Proposed rule, no phase-in
Proposed rule, 3-year phase-in
735,892
1,471,783
1,471,783
1,471,783
1,471,783
6,025,877
5,346,852
1,315,778
1,304,047
1,471,783
1,471,783
1,471,783
1,471,783
1,471,783
6,740,335
6,034,601
1,471,783
1,471,783
490,594
981,189
1,471,783
1,471,783
1,471,783
5,325,293
4,689,098
1,162,802
1,143,627
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
PDV, 3%
PDV, 7%
Annualized, 3%
Annualized, 7%
lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with RULES3
g. Analysis of Regulatory Alternatives to the Proposed Rule The Department analyzed two alternatives to the approach under the final rule. The Department considered one option to maintain many elements of the 2019 rule and to impose additional restrictions on grantees. This
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approach would exacerbate the trends of reduced Title X grantees, subrecipients, service sites, and clients served that we have observed under the 2019 rule.
Second, the Department considered revising the 2019 rule by readopting many elements of the 2000 regulations, but adopting additional flexibilities for
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grantees and reducing programmatic oversight. However, experience suggests the compliance regime as it existed prior to the 2019 rule was effective.
IV. Environmental Impact The Department has determined under 21 CFR 25.30k that this action
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