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48554

Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 166 / Tuesday, August 31, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
40-year time step. Under this scenario, water flow reduction due to drought and groundwater extraction continues to reduce the humid microhabitat for this species. Cross-border traffic continues, and risk of catastrophic wildfire is high due to dry conditions; invasion of nonnatives in the uplands; and increased risk of fire starts from illegal activity, recreation, and natural causes.
Mining impacts individuals in the Patagonia and Santa Rita Mountains.
Collection, trampling, freezing, herbivory, and human impacts also continue at current or increased levels.
Under this scenario, within the 40year timeframe, we expect Bartrams stonecrops viability to be characterized by lower levels of resiliency, representation, and redundancy than it has currently, which are already reduced as described above. In 40 years,
we expect that none of the 50 extant populations would exhibit high resiliency, 2 populations would exhibit moderate resiliency, 35 populations would exhibit low resiliency, and 13
additional populations would be extirpated, further reducing species redundancy and representation table 2, below; see table 6.6 in the SSA report Service 2020a. Under the moderate effects scenario, because of stressors described above, 45 populations would be reduced from their current condition for population level projections, see figure 6.3 and table 6.6 in the SSA
report Service 2020a. In this scenario, two of the three small populations in Mexico will be extirpated due to the amount of nonnatives contributing to fire, reduction in precipitation, increase in drought, and low resiliency of a small population.

Under scenario 4, major effects, we expect the viability of Bartrams stonecrop to be characterized by lower levels of resiliency, representation, and redundancy than under scenario 3. At the 40-year time step, no populations exhibit high resiliency, one would exhibit moderate resiliency, 16 would exhibit low resiliency, and 36
populations would be extirpated, further reducing redundancy and connectivity.
Please refer to the SSA report Service 2020a, entire for a more detailed discussion of our evaluation of the biological status of Bartrams stonecrop, the influences that may affect its continued existence, and the modeling efforts undertaken to further inform our analysis.

TABLE 2BARTRAMS STONECROP POPULATION CURRENT AND FUTURE RESILIENCY
Mountain range
Population name
Current condition
Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Baboquivari

Brown Canyon
Sabino Wash
Thomas Canyon
Echo Canyon
Indian Creek
Carlink Canyon
Jordan Canyon
Sheephead
Slavin Gulch
Stronghold Canyon E.
Stronghold Canyon W
Empire Mts
Juniper Flat
Alamo Canyon
Holden Canyon
Sycamore Canyon
Warsaw Canyon
Alum Canyon
Flux Canyon
Bear Creek
Chimenea-Madrona Canyon Chimenea Canyon Side Branch.
Distillery Canyon
Happy Valley North
Happy Valley South
Italian Spring Canyon
North Branch Turkey Creek ..
Posta Quemada Canyon
Rincon Creek
Rincon Peak
Shaw Canyon
South Branch Turkey Creek ..
Tanque Verde Ridge Trail
Tres Pipas Canyon
West Branch Deer Creek
Adobe Canyon
Bond Canyon
Cave Canyon
Gardner Canyon East
Gardner Canyon West
Josephine Canyon
Madera Canyon
Sawmill Canyon
Squaw Gulch
Sycamore Canyon
Temporal Gulch
Walker Canyon
Deathtrap Canyon
French Joe Canyon
Guindani Canyon
Sierra Las Avispas

Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Extirpated
Extirpated
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
High
Extirpated
Moderate
Moderate
Low
High
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Moderate

Moderate
Low
Low
Moderate
Extirpated
Extirpated
Moderate
Low
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Extirpated
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Low

Moderate
Low
Low
Moderate
Extirpated
Extirpated
Moderate
Low
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Extirpated
Moderate
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Moderate

Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Extirpated
Extirpated
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Extirpated
Low
Low
Extirpated
Low
Extirpated
Extirpated
Extirpated
Low
Low
Low

Low.
Extirpated.
Low.
Low.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Low.
Low.
Extirpated.
Low.
Moderate.
Extirpated.
Low.
Low.
Extirpated.
Low.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Low.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.

Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Low

Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low

Moderate
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low

Extirpated
Extirpated
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Extirpated
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Extirpated
Extirpated
Low
Low
Low
Extirpated
Low
Extirpated
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Extirpated

Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Low.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Low.
Low.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Low.
Extirpated.
Low.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.
Extirpated.

Chiricahua
Dragoon

Empire
Mule
Pajarito-Atascosa

Patagonia
Rincon

khammond on DSKJM1Z7X2PROD with RULES

Santa Rita

Whetstone

Sierra Las Avispas, Sonora

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Scenario 4