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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 159 / Friday, August 20, 2021 / Proposed Rules protection for possible referral to a full hearing of the claim and the noncitizen will still be able to seek review of that negative credible fear determination before the IJ.
Asylum officers will take on a new role of fully adjudicating all protection claims made by some noncitizens who have received a positive credible fear determination, a role previously carried out only by IJs as part of a proceeding under section 240 of the INA. Under the rule, IJs will take on a new authority to review de novo an asylum officers denial of these claims.
The population of individuals likely to be affected by this proposed rules provisions are individuals for whom USCIS completes a credible fear screening. The average annual number of credible fear screenings for FY 2016
through 2020 completed by USCIS is broken out as 59,280 positive credible fear determinations and 12,083 negative credible fear determinations, for a total of 71,363 individuals with credible fear determinations. DHS expects that this population will be affected by the rule in a number of ways, which may vary from person to person depending on 1
whether the individual receives a positive credible fear determination, and 2 whether the individuals asylum claim is granted or denied by the asylum officer. In addition, because of data constraints and conceptual and empirical challenges, we can provide only a partial monetization of the impacts to individuals. For example, asylum seekers who establish credible fear may benefit from having their asylum claims adjudicated potentially much sooner than they otherwise
would. Those who are granted asylum sooner may have a possible path to citizenship in the United States. This is obviously a benefit in terms of human dignity and equity, but it is a benefit that is not readily monetized. Asylum seekers who establish credible fear may also benefit from filing cost savings and earlier labor force entry. DHS has estimated this impact on a per-person workday basis.
As it relates to the Government and USCIS costs, the planned human resource and information-related expenditures required to implement this proposed rule are monetized as real resource costs. These estimates are developed along three population bounds, ranging from 75,000 to 300,000
credible fear screenings to account for possible variations in future years.
Furthermore, the possibility of parole for more individualsapplied on a case-by-case basiscould lower the cost to the Government per person processed. DHS has also estimated potential employment tax impacts germane to earlier labor force entry, likewise on a per-person workday basis.
Such estimates made on a per-person basis reflect a range of wages that the impacted individuals could earn. The per-person, per-work day estimates are not extended to broader monetized impacts due to data constraints.
An important caveat to the possible benefits to asylum applicants who establish a credible fear introduced above and discussed more thoroughly in the analysis is that it is expected to take time to implement this rule. Foremost, DHS expects the resourcing of this proposed rule to be implemented in a
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phased approach. Further, while upfront expenditures to support the changes from this proposed rule based on planning models are high, the logistical and operational requirements of this proposed rule may take time to fully implement. For instance, once USCIS meets its staffing requirements, time will be required for the new asylum staff to be trained for their positions, which may occur over several months. As a result, the benefits to applicants and the Government may not be realized immediately.
To develop the monetized costs of the proposed rule, DHS relied on a low, midrange, and high population bound to reflect future uncertainty in the population. In addition, resources are partially phased in over FYs 2022 and 2023, as a full phasing in of resources, potentially up to 2026, is not possible at this time. The average annualized cost of this proposed rule ranges from $180.4
million to $1.0 billion, at a 3 percent discount rate, and from $179.5 million to $995.8 million, at a 7 percent discount rate. At a 3 percent discount rate the total 10-year costs could range from $1.5 billion to $8.6 billion, with a midpoint of $3.9 billion. At a 7 percent discount rate, the total 10-year costs could range from $1.3 billion to $7.0
billion, with a midpoint of $3.2 billion.
A summary of the potential impacts of this proposed rule are presented in Table 1 and are detailed more in the ensuing analysis. Where quantitative estimates are provided, they apply to the midpoint figure applicable to the wage range or the population range.

TABLE 1SUMMARY OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS PROPOSED RULE
Entities impacted
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Individuals who receive a positive credible fear determination.

Annual population estimate USCIS provides a range from 75,000 to 300,000 total individuals who receive credible fear determinations. In recent years see Table 3, approximately 83.1% of individuals screened have received a positive credible fear determination.

Potential impacts Maximum potential cost-savings to applicants of Form I589 of $364.86 per person.

Potential cost-savings to applicants of Form I765 of $370.28 per person.
Potential early labor earnings to asylum applicants who obtain an employment authorization document EAD of $225.44 per person per workday; this impact could potentially constitute a transfer from workers in the U.S. labor force to certain asylum applicants. We identified three factors that could drive this impact of early entry to the labor force: i More expeditious grants of asylum, thereby authorizing work incident to status; and ii a change in timing apropos to the start time for filing for work authorizationthe EAD-clock duration is not impacted, but it shifts to an earlier starting point. On the other hand, some individuals who would have reached the EAD-clock duration for a pending asylum application and obtained work authorization under the current regulations may not obtain work authorization if their asylum claim is promptly denied.
Individuals could not have to wait lengthy times for a decision on their protection claims. This is a benefit in terms of equity, human dignity, and fairness.
Some individuals could benefit from de novo review by an IJ of the asylum officers denial of their asylum claim.

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