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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 148 / Thursday, August 5, 2021 / Rules and Regulations If an offshore oil spill contaminated numerous bears, a potentially significant impact to the SBS stock could result. This effect would be magnified in and around areas of polar bear aggregations. Bears could also be affected indirectly either by food contamination or by chronic lasting effects caused by exposure to oil. During the 5-year period of these regulations, however, the chance of a large spill occurring is low.
While there is uncertainty in the analysis, certain factors must align for polar bears to be impacted by a large oil spill occurring in the marine environment. First, a large spill must occur. Second, the large spill must contaminate areas where bears may be located. Third, polar bears must be seasonally distributed within the affected region when the oil is present.
Assuming a large spill occurs, BOEMs OSRA estimated that there is up to a 6
percent chance that a large spill from the analyzed sites would contact Cross Island ERA 96 within 360 days, as much as a 12 percent chance that it would contact Barter Island and/or the coast of the ANWR ERA 95 and 100, LS
107, and GLS 166, and up to a 15
percent chance that an oil spill would contact the coast near Utqigvik ERA 55, LS 85 during the summer time period.
Data from polar bear coastal surveys indicate that polar bears are unevenly and seasonally distributed along the coastal areas of the Beaufort Sea ITR
region. Seasonally, only a portion of the SBS stock utilizes the coastline between the Alaska-Canada border and Utqiagvik and only a portion of those bears could be in the oil-spill-affected region.
As a result of the information considered here, the Service concludes that the likelihood of an offshore spill from an offshore production facility in the next 5 years is low. Moreover, in the unlikely event of a large spill, the likelihood that spills would contaminate areas occupied by large numbers of bears is low. While individual bears could be negatively affected by a spill, the potential for a stock-level effect is low unless the spill contacted an area where large numbers of polar bears were gathered. Known polar bear aggregations tend to be seasonal during the fall, further minimizing the potential of a spill to impact the stock. Therefore, we conclude that the likelihood of a large spill occurring is low, but if a large spill does occur, the likelihood that it would contaminate areas occupied by large numbers of polar bears is also low. If a large spill does occur, we conclude that only small numbers of polar bears are likely to be affected, though some bears
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may be killed, and there would be only a negligible impact to the SBS stock.
Take Estimates for Pacific Walruses and Polar Bears Small Numbers Determinations and Findings The following analysis concludes that only small numbers of walruses and polar bears are likely to be subjected to take incidental to the described Industry activities relative to their respective stocks. For our small numbers determination, we consider whether the estimated number of marine mammals to be subjected to incidental take is small relative to the population size of the species or stock.
1. The estimated number of walruses and polar bears that will be harassed by Industry activity is small relative to the number of animals in their stocks.
As stated previously, walruses are extralimital in the Beaufort Sea with nearly the entire walrus population found in the Chukchi and Bering Seas.
Industry monitoring reports have observed no more than 38 walruses between 1995 and 2015, with only a few observed instances of disturbance to those walruses AES Alaska 2015, USFWS unpublished data. Between those years, Industry walrus observations in the Beaufort Sea ITR
region averaged approximately two walruses per year, although the actual observations were of a single or two animals, often separated by several years. At most, only a tiny fraction of the Pacific walrus populationwhich is comprised of hundreds of thousands of animalsmay be found in areas potentially affected by AOGAs specified activities. We do not anticipate that seasonal movements of a few walruses into the Beaufort Sea will significantly increase over the 5-year period of this ITR. The estimated take of 15 Pacific walruses per year from a population numbering approximately 283,213 animals represents 0.005
percent of that population. We therefore find that the Industry activities specified in AOGAs Request would result in only a small number of incidental harassments of walruses.
The Beaufort Sea ITR region is completely within the range of the SBS
stock of polar bears, and during some portions of the year polar bears can be frequently encountered by Industry.
From 2014 through 2018, Industry made 1,166 reports of polar bears comprising 1,698 bears. However, when we evaluated the effects upon the 1,698
bears observed, we found that 84
percent 1,434 did not result in take.
Over those 5 years, Level B harassments
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of polar bears totaled 264, approximately 15.5 percent of the observed bears. No other forms of take or harassment were observed. Annually an average of 340 polar bears were observed during Industry activities. The number of Level B harassment events has averaged 53 per year from 2014 to 2018. We conclude that over the 5-year period of this ITR, Industry activities will result in a similarly small number of incidental harassments of polar bears, and that those events will be similarly limited to Level B harassment.
Based on this information derived from Industry observations, along with the results of the Services own predictive modeling analysis described above, we estimate that there will be no more than 443 Level B harassment takes of polar bears during the 5-year period of this ITR, with no more than 92
occurring within a single year.
Conservatively assuming that each estimates take will accrue to a different individual polar bear, we note that take of 92 animals is 10.14 percent of the best available estimate of the current stock size of 907 animals in the Southern Beaufort Sea stock Bromaghin et al. 2015, Atwood et al. 2020 92
907 100 10.14, and find that this proportion represents a small number of polar bears of that stock. The incidental Level B harassment of no more than 92 polar bears each year is unlikely to lead to significant consequences for the health, reproduction, or survival of affected animals. All takes are anticipated to be incidental Level B harassment involving short-term and temporary changes in bear behavior. The required mitigation and monitoring measures described in the regulations are expected to prevent any lethal or injurious takes.
2. Within the specified geographical region, the area of Industry activity is expected to be small relative to the range of walruses and polar bears.
Walruses and polar bears range well beyond the boundaries of the Beaufort Sea ITR region. As such, the ITR region itself represents only a subset of the potential area in which these species may occur. Further, only seven percent of the ITR area 518,800 ha of 7.9
million ha is estimated to be impacted by the proposed Industry activities, even accounting for a disturbance zone surrounding industrial facility and transit routes. Thus, the Service concludes that the area of Industry activity will be relatively small compared to the range of walruses and polar bears.

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