Voglio sapere a riguardo di…

lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1

Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 147 / Wednesday, August 4, 2021 / Proposed Rules Status Throughout All of Its Range After evaluating threats to the species and assessing the cumulative effect of the threats under the section 4a1
factors, we found that climate change presents the most substantial threat to emperor penguins viability. While other activities such as tourism and commercial fisheries occur on and near Antarctica, international regulatory measures are in place that adequately regulate conduct related to these activities in Antarctica. Thus, no other stressors are drivers of the species viability.
The emperor penguin is currently in high condition because the species has high resiliency, redundancy, and representation. Emperor penguin breeding colonies are distributed around the continent see figure 1, above with no indication that their distribution or genetic or ecological diversity is presently decreasing. Sixty-one breeding colonies are extant. The global population comprises approximately 270,000280,000 breeding pairs or 625,000650,000 individual birds, with the greatest abundance in the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea sectors. Emperor penguins have high survival and reproductive success, and genetic analysis has identified four known metapopulations of emperor penguins.
The sea-ice conditions in Antarctica are described within five sectors Weddell Sea, Indian Ocean, Western Pacific Ocean, Ross Sea, and Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea, and colonies within these sectors may approximately correspond to the genetic variation of the four known metapopulations see figures 1 and 2, above. Sea-ice extent in the Southern Ocean serves as a proxy measure of all important habitat factors for emperor penguins. Sea-ice extent is currently within its natural range of variability.
The yearly sea-ice extent in the Southern Ocean has a small positive, but statistically insignificant trend over the 40 years from 1979 to 2018, although the overall increase masks larger, and sometimes opposing regional differences in trends. The emperor penguins main prey resources Antarctic silverfish and Antarctic krill are directly related to the extent and duration of sea ice. Currently, foraging success and prey availability appear not to be limiting factors for emperor penguins throughout their range.
Thus, after assessing the best available information, we determined that the emperor penguin is not currently in danger of extinction throughout all of its range. We then turned our attention to determining whether the emperor
VerDate Sep<11>2014

16:17 Aug 03, 2021

Jkt 253001

penguin is in danger of extinction throughout all of its range within the foreseeable future.
At 2050, roughly 50,000 breeding pairs constitute the difference between global population projections for the lowand high-emissions scenarios.
Starting at approximately 250,000
breeding pairs, under Paris 1.5, the median number of breeding pairs declines to approximately 185,000, and under RCP 8.5, the median number of breeding pairs declines to approximately 132,500.
The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea sectors currently contain the greatest abundance of emperor penguin breeding pairs and are projected to be the most resilient sectors within the foreseeable future, relative to the Indian Ocean, Western Pacific Ocean, and Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea sectors. Redundancy and representation decline at a faster rate than resiliency because the Weddell Sea, and particularly the Ross Sea, are the strongholds for the species as the colonies in the other sectors markedly decline because sea-ice conditions are projected to deteriorate. Assessing the results of the projections for all scenarios shows that the majority of the remaining global population would be in the Weddell Sea and Ross Sea sectors. These two sectors contain two of the four known metapopulations Weddell Sea and Ross Sea metapopulations and are the two most resilient sectors.
The global population at 2050 is projected to decline between 26 percent to approximately 185,000 breeding pairs and 47 percent to approximately 132,500 breeding pairs under the lowand high-emissions scenarios, respectively. The global population would be large enough and retain sufficient viability so that the species is not in danger of extinction by 2050, because the breeding pairs remaining include at least 50 percent of the global breeding pairs, even under the highemissions scenario. That said, the distribution of the species will be reduced by 2050 because most, and possibly all, colonies and breeding pairs will be limited to the Weddell Sea and Ross Sea sectors; almost the entire decline of breeding pairs is because of the loss of breeding colonies in the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen SeaAmundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors. However, enough breeding colonies would be extant in the Weddell Sea and Ross Sea to withstand localized stochastic and catastrophic events. The genetic and ecological diversity of emperor penguins will be reduced because the
PO 00000

Frm 00023

Fmt 4702

Sfmt 4702

41929

decrease in distribution of breeding colonies results in the loss of the colonies that make up the two metapopulations in East Antarctica Mawson Coast and Amanda Bay/Point Geologie metapopulations, and many other colonies in East Antarctica and in the Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea sector for which breeding colony genetics have not been analyzed. The Weddell Sea and Ross Sea sectors contain the other two metapopulations that maintain genetic and ecological diversity, are the strongholds for the species, and are projected to contain the vast majority, and possibly all, the remaining breeding colonies at 2050.
The emperor penguin will decrease in resiliency, representation, and redundancy compared to current conditions. However, the global population size at 2050 will be large, and enough colonies will be extant in the Weddell Sea and Ross Sea, such that the species as a whole will not likely to be in danger of extinction.
Thus, after assessing the best available information, we conclude that the emperor penguin is not likely to become in danger of extinction within the foreseeable future throughout all of its range.
Status Throughout a Significant Portion of Its Range Under the Act and our implementing regulations, a species may warrant listing if it is in danger of extinction or likely to become so within the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range. Having determined that the emperor penguin is not in danger of extinction or likely to become so within the foreseeable future throughout all of its range, we now consider whether the emperor penguin is in danger of extinction or likely to become so within the foreseeable future in a significant portion of its rangethat is, whether there is any portion of the species range for which it is true that both 1 the portion is significant; and 2 the species, in that portion, is in danger of extinction or likely to become so within the foreseeable future.
Depending on the case, it might be more efficient for us to address the significance question or the status question first. We can choose to address either question first. Regardless of which question we choose to address first, if we reach a negative answer with respect to the first question, we do not need to evaluate the other question for that portion of the species range.
For the emperor penguin, sea-ice conditions in Antarctica are described in five sectors, which also may approximately correspond to the known
E:FRFM04AUP1.SGM

04AUP1