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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 147 / Wednesday, August 4, 2021 / Proposed Rules
prediction is reliable if it is reasonable to depend on it when making decisions.
It is not always possible or necessary to define foreseeable future as a particular number of years. Analysis of the foreseeable future uses the best scientific and commercial data available and should consider the timeframes applicable to the relevant threats and to the species likely responses to those threats in view of its life-history characteristics. Data that are typically relevant to assessing the species biological response include speciesspecific factors such as lifespan, reproductive rates or productivity, certain behaviors, and other demographic factors.
When considering the future condition of emperor penguins, climate change is projected to be the most substantial threat to emperor penguins across the species range. Determining a future time horizon for assessing plausible climate change-driven impacts is complicated by the variation in magnitude of change in climate variables projected further into the future. Uncertainty in century-scale projections of Earths climate stems from a few main sources, in addition to model imperfections. In the near term, natural climate variability is the largest source of uncertainty in climate projections. Over multi-decadal timescales approximately the next 30 to 50 years, uncertainties among climate model outputs tend to be most influenced by our imperfect scientific knowledge of the climate system. Over longer timescales approximately the next 60 to 100 years, human actions and decisions affecting global greenhouse gas GHG emissions are considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in climate projections Terando et al. 2020, pp. 1415.
Climate models used in national and global assessments simulate plausible and realistic representations of Earths climate, but variations of initial conditions or model parameters and differences in how the models are developed and configured causes variation in model outputs, and ultimately affects the sensitivity of any given model to changes in atmospheric GHG concentrations Terando et al.
2020, p. 14.
Atmospheric concentrations of GHG
emissions in the nearand mid-term are determined primarily by current emissions and the average time it takes emitted molecules to break down chemically in the atmosphere. In the long term, human choices regarding economic development, changes in technology, and population trends will
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determine emission levels Terando et al. 2020, p. 15.
The reliability of modeled projections of sea ice in the Southern Ocean using Global Circulation Models GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP is an important issue Trathan et al. 2020, p. 5; Roach 2020, entire. The amount of sea ice has exhibited minimal positive trends from 1979 to 2018; however, nearly all individual models simulate declining sea ice over this period Roach 2020, entire. The existing models often do not capture the regional and, in some cases, opposing trends observed by satellites, and no single model matches the historical conditions at all colonies in all seasons. Thus, there is lower confidence in projections of Antarctic sea ice because of the wide range of outputs, and models not being able to replicate historical satellite observations, as well as multiple factors and complex interactions between the ocean and atmosphere that affect the Antarctic ice sheet Meredith et al. 2019, pp. 205, 223. However, models continue to improve their ability to represent historical sea-ice conditions in Antarctica.
The key statutory difference between a threatened species and an endangered species is the timing of when a species may be in danger of extinction, either now endangered species or within the foreseeable future threatened species.
In the emperor penguin SSA, we considered time horizons at midcentury, late-century, and end-ofcentury 2050, 2080, 2100 for analyzing the future condition of emperor penguins. The population projections of emperor penguins are based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC climate-change-model projections following available IPCC
scenarios, using GCMs from CMIP
phase 3 CMIP3 and phase 5 CMIP5.
When applying the information in the SSA to a listing context in considering what is the foreseeable future for emperor penguins, the projections of the global emperor penguin population begin to diverge around 2050. At 2050, population projections from all scenarios are within 50,000 pairs of each other see figure A2 in the SSA
report Service 2021, p. 83. The differences in population estimates grows to approximately 150,000
breeding pairs by 2100, with scenario based on Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 8.5 predicting near extinction while the scenarios based on the Paris Accord commitments predict gradual declines that do not fall under 135,000 breeding pairs. Thus, after 2050, the variation in population size
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results in too much uncertainty for the Service to make reliable predictions on whether the emperor penguins response to the threat of climate change will result in the species being in danger of extinction or not.
Climate change is the most substantial threat to emperor penguins in the future because of an increase in air and sea temperatures that negatively affects sea ice habitat and, relatedly, prey abundance in Antarctica. Most of the difference between the present climate and the climate at the end of the century and beyond will be determined by decisions made by policymakers today and during the next few decades Terando et al. 2020, p. 15. At this time, we have little clarity on what decisions will be made by policymakers in the next few decades. Thus, we determined the projections of sea-ice conditions and the response of emperor penguins at the late-century and end-of-century 2080
and 2100 time horizons to be too uncertain to make reliable predictions.
The 2050 time horizon extends only so far into the future as the Service can reasonably determine that both the future threats and the species response to those threats are likely. Therefore, in this evaluation, we identified midcentury 2050 as the foreseeable future for the threat of climate change because that is the period over which we can make reliable predictions as to sea ice and the future condition of emperor penguins.
Analytical Framework The SSA report documents the results of our comprehensive biological review of the best scientific and commercial data regarding the status of the species, including an assessment of the potential threats to the species. The SSA report does not represent a decision by the Service on whether the emperor penguin should be proposed for listing as an endangered or threatened species under the Act. However, it does provide the scientific basis that informs our regulatory decisions, which involve the further application of standards within the Act and its implementing regulations and policies. The following is a summary of the key results and conclusions from the SSA report; the full SSA report can be found at Docket No. FWSHQES20210043 on http
www.regulations.gov.
To assess the emperor penguins viability, we used the three conservation biology principles of resiliency, redundancy, and representation Shaffer and Stein 2000, pp. 306310. Briefly, resiliency supports the ability of the species to withstand environmental and demographic stochasticity for example,
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