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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 134 / Friday, July 16, 2021 / Proposed Rules TABLE II.16DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS
Equipment type
1 2
3 4
5

Distribution channel
Dedicated condensing equipment %

Unit coolers %

Panels and non-display doors %

Display doors %

Direct National Accounts
Refrigeration Wholesalers
OEM
General Contractor
Equipment Distributor

3
42
55

45
45
10

49

8 43

30
70

Total

100

100

100

100

Issue 37: DOE seeks comment on whether the distribution channels used in the June 2014 ECS final rule and July 2017 ECS final rule as depicted in Table II.16 remain relevant today, and if not, DOE requests information on these channels as well as the existence of any additional channels that are used to distribute walk-in components into the market. Additionally, DOE requests comment on the appropriateness of these channels, and their respective fractions for the following equipment:
display-panels, high-temperature freezers, single-package refrigeration systems, and wine cellars as described in sections II.A.1 through II.A.4 of this document.
2. Lifetime Analysis The equipment lifetime is the age at which the equipment is retired from service. To reflect the uncertainty of equipment lifetimes the LCC analysis uses Weibull probability distributions for each equipment class. For the June 2014 ECS final rule and July 2017 ECS
final rule DOE developed separate lifetime distributions for WICF envelope components and refrigeration system components. 79 FR 32050, 32086 and 82
FR 31808, 31846. The average values of these distributions are shown in Table II.17.

TABLE II.17ESTIMATED AVERAGE
WICF EQUIPMENT LIFETIMES
Years Average lifetime years
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Component Refrigeration Systems condensing systems and unit coolers
Non-display Doors freight and passage doors
Display Doors
Panels

10.5
6 12
12

Issue 38: DOE seeks comment on its estimated equipment lifetime for WICF

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refrigeration system and envelope components. Specifically, DOE requests data on appropriate average lifetimes that DOEs analyses should use for:
display-panels, high-temperature freezers, single-package refrigeration systems, and wine cellars as described in sections II.A.1 through II.A.4 of this document.
3. Shipments Analysis DOE develops shipments forecasts of walk-ins to calculate the national impacts of potential amended energy conservation standards on energy consumption, net present value NPV, and future manufacturer cash flows.38 DOEs shipments projections are based on available data broken out by equipment class, capacity, and efficiency. Current sales estimates allow for a more accurate model that captures recent trends in the market.
The envelope component shipments model for panels and doors, and the refrigeration system shipments model for dedicated condensing systems and unit coolers, take an accounting approach, tracking market shares of each equipment class and the vintage of units in the existing stock over time.
Stock accounting uses equipment shipments as inputs to estimate the age distribution of in-service equipment stocks for all the years covered under a potential revised standard. The age distribution of in-service equipment stocks is a key input to calculations of both the National Energy Savings NES and NPV of a potential new standard because operating costs for any year depend on the age distribution of the stock.
DOEs shipments model of walk-in refrigeration systems and envelope components are driven by new 38 DOE uses data on manufacturer shipments as a proxy for national sales, as aggregate data on sales are not readily available for DOE to examine. In general, one would expect a close correspondence between shipments and sales in light of their direct relationship with each other.

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purchases and stock replacements due to failures. Equipment failure rates are related to equipment lifetimes see section II.D.2 of this document. In the analyses done for the June 2014 ECS
final rule and July 2017 ECS final rule, DOE modeled projections for new equipment using the commercial building floor space growth rates of buildings classified as food sales, food service, and other from the Energy Information Administrations Annual Energy Outlook.39 In both the June 2014 ECS final rule and July 2017
ECS final rule DOE assumed that the share of shipments for each equipment class and capacity would remain constant over time. 40 82 FR 31808, 31847.
Previously, complete historical shipments data for walk-ins could not be obtained from any single source.
Therefore, in the June 2014 ECS final rule DOE used data from multiple sources to estimate historical shipments.
79 FR 32050, 32088. For the July 2017
ECS final rule, DOE continued with the same sources of shipments described in the NOPR published on September 13, 2016. 81 FR 62980, 63012.
Issue 39: DOE requests comment on its assumption that the market share of shipments for each equipment class would remain constant over time.
39 See chapter 9, section 9.2 of the June 2014 ECS
final rule TSD, available at: www.regulations.gov/
document/EERE-2008-BT-STD-0015-0131. See chapter 9, section 9.3 of the July 2017 ECS final rule TSD, available at: www.regulations.gov/document/
EERE-2015-BT-STD-0016-0099. For more information see: www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/.
40 The assumption that shipments for each capacity of each equipment class would remain constant over time were not explicitly stated in either the Notice or the TSD of the June 2014 ECS
final rule. However, the results for the shipments analysis, where this assumption is applied, can be reviewed in the final rule National Impacts Analyses NIA models for both refrigeration systems, panels, and doors. For refrigeration systems: www.regulations.gov/document/EERE2008-BT-STD-0015-0135. For panels and doors:
www.regulations.gov/document/EERE-2008-BTSTD-0015-0134.

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