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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 43 / Monday, March 8, 2021 / Rules and Regulations
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The Act does not define the term foreseeable future, which appears in the statutory definition of threatened species. Our implementing regulations at 50 CFR 424.11d set forth a framework for evaluating the foreseeable future on a case-by-case basis. The term foreseeable future extends only so far into the future as we can reasonably determine that both the future threats and the species responses to those threats are likely. In other words, the foreseeable future is the period of time in which we can make reliable predictions. Reliable does not mean certain; it means sufficient to provide a reasonable degree of confidence in the prediction. Thus, a prediction is reliable if it is reasonable to depend on it when making decisions.
It is not always possible or necessary to define foreseeable future as a particular number of years. Analysis of the foreseeable future uses the best scientific and commercial data available and should consider the timeframes applicable to the relevant threats and to the species likely responses to those threats in view of its life-history characteristics. Data that are typically relevant to assessing the species biological response include speciesspecific factors such as lifespan, reproductive rates or productivity, certain behaviors, and other demographic factors.
Analytical Framework The SSA report documents the results of our comprehensive biological review of the best scientific and commercial data regarding the status of the species, including an assessment of the potential threats to the species. The SSA report does not represent our decision on whether the species should be downlisted or delisted under the Act. It does, however, provide the scientific basis that informs our regulatory decisions, which involve the further application of standards within the Act and its implementing regulations and policies. The following is a summary of the key results and conclusions from the SSA report; the full SSA report can be found at Docket FWSR1ES2019
0013 on http www.regulations.gov.
To assess the viability of Bradshaws lomatium, we used the three conservation biology principles of resiliency, redundancy, and representation Shaffer and Stein 2000, pp. 306310. Briefly, resiliency supports the ability of the species to withstand environmental and demographic stochasticity for example, wet or dry, warm or cold years;
redundancy supports the ability of the species to withstand catastrophic events
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for example, droughts, large pollution events; and representation supports the ability of the species to adapt over time to long-term changes in the environment for example, climate changes. In general, the more resilient and redundant a species is and the more representation it has, the more likely it is to sustain populations over time, even under changing environmental conditions. Using these principles, we identified the species ecological requirements for survival and reproduction at the individual, population, and species levels, and described the beneficial and risk factors influencing the species viability.
The SSA process can be categorized into three sequential stages. During the first stage, we evaluated the individual species life-history needs. The next stage involved an assessment of the historical and current condition of the species demographics and habitat characteristics, including an explanation of how the species arrived at its current condition. The final stage of the SSA involved making predictions about the species responses to positive and negative environmental and anthropogenic influences. Throughout all of these stages, we used the best available information to characterize viability as the ability of a species to sustain populations in the wild over time. We use this information to inform our regulatory decision.
Summary of Biological Status and Threats In this discussion, we review the biological condition of Bradshaws lomatium and its resources, and the threats that influence the species current and future condition, in order to assess the species overall viability and the risks to that viability.
We consider 25 to 50 years to be a reasonable period of time within which reliable predictions can be made for potential stressors and responses for Bradshaws lomatium. This period of time is sufficient to observe population trends for the species, based on its life history characteristics, and captures the terms of many of the management plans that are in effect at Bradshaws lomatium sites; it is also the length of time over which we conclude we can make reliable prediction about the anticipated effects of climate change.
Although information exists regarding potential impacts from climate change beyond a 50-year timeframe, the projections depend on an increasing number of assumptions, and thus become more uncertain with increasingly long timeframes. We, therefore, use a maximum timeframe of
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50 years to provide the best balance of scope of impacts considered versus the certainty of those impacts being realized.
At the time of listing, the primary threats to Bradshaws lomatium were habitat loss due to land use conversion for agriculture or urbanization and the invasion of prairie vegetation by various woody plant species 53 FR 38449
38450; September 30, 1988. The listing rule did not find that overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or educational purposes posed a threat to Bradshaws lomatium. The listing rule noted that several parasitic organisms a fungus, spittle bug, and two aphids could potentially have negative effects on smaller, stressed populations of the plant but not the species as a whole and questioned whether inbreeding depression might pose a threat to the species since the populations known at the time appeared to be small and isolated from one another. The rule noted that further study was required to determine the significance of any such threats. Finally, the listing rule noted that State and Federal regulations existing at the time did not adequately protect the plant from habitat loss or other potential threats 53 FR 38450;
September 30, 1988. By the time the recovery plan was developed in 1993, these same threats were still considered relevant Service 1993, p. 12. There are three potential threats that were either not known or considered at the time of listing: 1 Competition from nonnative, invasive plant species; 2 potential impacts resulting from the effects of climate change; and 3 predation by voles Microtus spp., which has been observed within Bradshaws lomatium sites. Subsequently, we conducted a 5year status review based on the SSA
report for Bradshaws lomatium that includes an analysis of all factors known to affect the viability of the species Service 2018, entire.
As discussed in our 2018 SSA report, the threat of habitat loss from land conversion for agriculture and urbanization has decreased since the time of listing due to land protection efforts. Although a few privately owned sites are still at risk, land use conversion is no longer considered a significant threat to the viability of Bradshaws lomatium due to the number of sites now receiving some degree of protection from development Service 2018, pp.
3639, Appendix A. In Oregon, which supports 23 of the 24 known populations of the species, greater than 99 percent of known Bradshaws lomatium plants occur on sites protected through public or NGO
ownership, through designation as a
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