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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 33 / Monday, February 22, 2021 / Proposed Rule
each with a different expected harvest level, and choose the optimal regulation for duck hunting based on the status and demographics of mallards for the Mississippi, Central, and Pacific Flyways, and based on the status and demographics of a suite of four species eastern waterfowl in the Atlantic Flyway see below, and the earlier referenced report Adaptive Harvest Management, 2021 Hunting Season for more details. We have specific AHM
protocols that guide appropriate bag limits and season lengths for species of special concern, including black ducks, scaup, and pintails, within the general duck season. These protocols use the same outside season dates and lengths as those regulatory alternatives for the 202122 general duck season.
For the 202122 hunting season, we will continue to use independent optimizations to determine the appropriate regulatory alternative for mallard stocks in the Mississippi, Central, and Pacific Flyways and for eastern waterfowl in the Atlantic Flyway. This means that we will develop regulations for mid-continent mallards, western mallards, and eastern waterfowl independently based on the breeding stocks that contributes primarily to each Flyway. We detailed implementation of AHM protocols for mid-continent and western mallards in the July 24, 2008, Federal Register 73
FR 43290, and for eastern waterfowl in the September 21, 2018, Federal Register 83 FR 47868.
We also stated in the October 9, 2020, proposed rule, that the coronavirus prevented the Service and their partners from performing the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey WBPHS and estimating waterfowl breeding abundances and habitat conditions in the spring of 2020. As a result, AHM protocols have been adjusted to inform decisions on duck hunting regulations based on model predictions of breeding abundances and habitat conditions. In most cases, system models specific to each AHM
decision framework have been used to predict breeding abundances from the available information e.g., 2019
observations. However, for some system state variables i.e., pond numbers and mean latitude we have used updated time series models to forecast 2020 values based on the most recent information. These technical adjustments are described in detail in the report entitled Adaptive Harvest Management, 2021 Hunting Season referenced above under Population Status and Harvest.

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Atlantic Flyway
Mississippi and Central Flyways
For the Atlantic Flyway, we set duckhunting regulations based on the status and demographics of a suite of four duck species eastern waterfowl in eastern Canada and the Atlantic Flyway States: Green-winged teal, common goldeneye, ring-necked duck, and wood duck. For purposes of the assessment, eastern waterfowl stocks are those breeding in eastern Canada and Maine Federal WBPHS fixed-wing surveys in strata 5153, 56, and 6270, and helicopter plot surveys in strata 5152, 6364, 6668, and 7072 and in Atlantic Flyway States from New Hampshire south to Virginia Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey, AFBWS. Abundance estimates for green-winged teal, ring-necked ducks, and goldeneyes are derived annually by integrating fixed-wing and helicopter survey data from eastern Canada and Maine WBPHS strata 5153, 56, and 6272. Counts of green-winged teal, ring-necked ducks, and goldeneyes in the AFBWS are negligible and therefore excluded from population estimates for those species. Abundance estimates for wood ducks in the Atlantic Flyway Maine south to Florida are estimated by integrating data from the AFBWS and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Counts of wood ducks from the WBPHS are negligible and therefore excluded from population estimates.
For the 202122 hunting season, we evaluated alternative harvest regulations for eastern waterfowl using: 1 A
management objective of 98 percent of maximum long-term sustainable harvest for eastern waterfowl; 2 the 202122
regulatory alternatives; and 3 current stock-specific population models and associated weights. Based on the liberal regulatory alternative selected for the 202021 duck hunting season, the 2020
model predictions of 0.35 million greenwinged teal, 0.94 million wood ducks, 0.70 million ring-necked ducks, and 0.58 million goldeneyes, the optimal regulation for the Atlantic Flyway is the liberal alternative. Therefore, we concur with the recommendation of the Atlantic Flyway Council regarding selection of the liberal regulatory alternative as described in the October 9, 2020, proposed rule for the 202122
season.
The mallard bag limit in the Atlantic Flyway is based on a separate assessment of the harvest potential of eastern mallards see xi. Other, below, for further discussion on the mallard bag limit in the Atlantic Flyway.

For the Mississippi and Central Flyways, we set duck-hunting regulations based on the status and demographics of mid-continent mallards and habitat conditions pond numbers in Prairie Canada. For purposes of the assessment, midcontinent mallards are those breeding in central North America Federal WBPHS
strata 1318, 2050, and 7577, and in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin State surveys.
For the 202122 hunting season, we evaluated alternative harvest regulations for mid-continent mallards using: 1 A
management objective of maximum long-term sustainable harvest; 2 the 202122 regulatory alternatives; and 3
current population models and associated weights. Based on a liberal regulatory alternative selected for the 202021 hunting season, the 2020
model predictions of 9.07 million midcontinent mallards and 3.40 million ponds in Prairie Canada, the optimal regulation for the Mississippi and Central Flyways is the liberal alternative. Therefore, we concur with the recommendations of the Mississippi and Central Flyway Councils regarding selection of the liberal regulatory alternative as described in the October 9, 2020, proposed rule for the 202122
season.

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Pacific Flyway For the Pacific Flyway, we set duckhunting regulations based on the status and demographics of western mallards.
For purposes of the assessment, western mallards consist of two substocks and are those breeding in Alaska and Yukon Territory Federal WBPHS strata 112
and those breeding in the southern Pacific Flyway including California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia State and Provincial surveys combined.
For the 202122 hunting season, we evaluated alternative harvest regulations for western mallards using: 1 A
management objective of maximum long-term sustainable harvest; 2 the 202122 regulatory alternatives; and 3
the current population model. Based on a liberal regulatory alternative selected for the 202021 hunting season, the 2020 model predictions of 0.94 million western mallards in Alaska and the Yukon Territory 0.41 million and the southern Pacific Flyway 0.53 million, the optimal regulation for the Pacific Flyway is the liberal alternative.
Therefore, we concur with the recommendation of the Pacific Flyway Council regarding selection of the liberal regulatory alternative as
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