Federal Register - January 8, 2021
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Source: Federal Register
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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 5 / Friday, January 8, 2021 / Proposed Rules
and geographic location of emissions contributing to NAAQS exceedances.52
ADEQ developed a stagnation day scenario for Cowtown, Pinal County Housing, and Stanfield monitors and surrounding area micro-emissions inventories. The stagnant day scenarios used dispersion modeling from the American Meteorological Society AMS/EPA Regulatory Model AERMOD. ADEQ chose design days from the fall season, September through November 2008 for this analysis.
b. Control Strategy for Attainment ADEQ relied on the following portions of the AgBMP Rules for Pinal
County to provide for attainment of the PM10 standard: R182610 and 610.03, commercial farms; AgBMP rule R182
611 and 611.03, commercial animal operations except for dairy operations;
and, R182612 and 612.01, irrigation districts.53 Tables 3 and 4 show the annual nonattainment area emissions inventories for the 2018 baseline estimate and the 2018 attainment estimate by source category and the control strategies predicted emissions reductions. Within the windblown fugitive dust emissions inventories, ADEQ predicted almost all the emission reductions, 93 percent, to come from soil stabilization control measures on
agricultural land. Within the activitybased emissions inventories, ADEQ
predicted most of the emission reductions, 87 percent, to come from control measures applied to unpaved road operations on private agricultural land and canal roads; the remainder of predicted emission reductions come from control measures to reduce PM10
emissions from on-field agriculture and animal feeding operations. As noted, the regulatory vehicle for these emissions reductions is the AgBMP rule provisions the State relied on to provide for attainment of the PM10 standard and to implement RACM/RACT in the area.
TABLE 3WINDBLOWN DUST/FUGITIVE EMISSIONS, 2018 BASE AND ATTAINMENT EMISSIONS INVENTORIES WITH
ESTIMATED EMISSION REDUCTIONS
tpy Source category
Base 2018
Attainment 2018
Emission reductions
Developed Urban Lands
Developed Rural Lands low density
Unpaved Roads
Cleared Areas
Residential Construction
Dairies
CAFOs
Desert Shrubland
Agriculture
Commercial Construction
Other
Site Development
248.1
1,959.7
4,653.0
457.0
837.5
449.6
155.2
19,510.1
441.4
4,243.9
552.2
248.1
1,959.7
3,803.1
457.0
837.5
449.6
125.3
7,122.0
441.4
4,243.9
552.2
849.9
29.9
12,388.1
Total
33,507.7
20,239.8
13,267.9
Source: West Pinal County PM10 Plan, Table 53; Appendix B, Tables 531, 532, 533, 534.
TABLE 4ACTIVITY BASED EMISSIONS, 2018 BASE AND ATTAINMENT EMISSIONS INVENTORIES WITH ESTIMATED EMISSION
REDUCTIONS
tpy
tkelley on DSKBCP9HB2PROD with PROPOSALS
Source category
Base 2018
Attainment 2018
Emission reductions
AgHarvesting
AgTilling
CAFOs
Paved Road
Unpaved Road
Fuel Combustion
Fires
Open Burning
Nonroad
Railroad
Construction
Dairy
Permitted Sources
Unpaved Parking
312.9
2,540.3
1,620.6
1,408.0
45,105.3
34.9
22.2
16.8
144.4
45.4
8,499.8
184.0
781.3
251.5
207.1
1,658.0
1,369.2
1,408.0
37,186.4
34.9
22.2
16.8
144.4
45.4
8,499.8
184.0
781.3
251.5
105.8
882.3
251.4
7,918.9
Total
60,967.4
51,809.0
9,158.4
Source: West Pinal County PM10 Plan, Table 53; Appendix B, Tables 531, 532, 533, 534
Paved and Unpaved Road emissions estimates include direct vehicle emissions and fugitive dust emissions from vehicle re-entrainment.
52 The term rollback refers to the assumption that the PM10 concentrations are directly proportional to emissions. To predict the ambient effect of an emissions change, the concentration can be scaled, or rolled back, by the same percentage by which emissions are reduced. In proportional rollback, each source category is rolled back separately, since emissions from each will have a
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different level of control, and in general a different degree of dispersion. As in simple rollback, the ambient contribution of each individual source category scales with its emissions. For the weighted proportional rollback, source-tomonitor distance was accounted for via an inverse distance factor 1/d. For example, a source with only small emissions may nevertheless have a large
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contribution to the concentration if it was very close to the monitor. A change in a sources emissions causes a change in total concentration in proportion to that sources contribution to that particular monitor.
53 West Pinal County PM
10 Plan, Chapters 6 and 7.
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