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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 223 / Tuesday, November 23, 2021 / Rules and Regulations through 2015 as compared to 2001
through 2006 and showed a reduction in shipments for gas wall vented heaters and gas room vented heaters. 85 FR
77017, 77034 Dec. 1, 2020. Also, as stated in the December 2020 NOPD, these shipments are lower than the projected shipments from the April 2010 final rule indicating that the decline in vented heater shipments has been faster than expected. Id. at 77038.
DOE has not received shipments data more recent than 2015, however, the alignment of April 2010 final rule shipment projections and the actual shipment data received from AHRI for 2010 through 2015 along with the reduction in model counts since 2015
see section III.B.3 suggest that the number of shipments have continued to decline for the vented heater market.
Therefore, DOE has determined the shipments data relied on for its prior determination are appropriate for the present determination.
h. National Energy Savings
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As explained in sections III.B.3.d.
through III.B.3.g. of this document, the technology options, energy use, and shipments for DHE have not changed significantly since the April 2010 final rule and October 2016 final determination. Accordingly, the national energy savings are expected to be largely the same as the national energy savings projected in the April 2010 final rule. In the April 2010 final rule, DOE estimated that the max-tech TSL TSL 6 would result in an additional 0.13 quads of site energy savings over 30 years, as compared to the adopted TSL i.e., the current standard levels.26 The site energy savings from the max-tech TSL
represent approximately a six-percent reduction compared to the total 30-year 26 DOE used the April 2010 final rule National Impact Analysis NIA spreadsheet for DHE to calculate the site energy savings difference between the max-tech level TSL 6 and current standard level TSL 2. The site energy savings are available in the National Impacts Summary worksheet for each product class. The site energy savings calculation was adjusted to take into account the site energy savings over 30 years of product shipments 20132042 and to include the full lifetime of products shipped over the 30 year period 20132042. The published version of the DHE NIA
spreadsheet only accounted for site energy savings from 20132042. The resulting 30-year site energy savings per product class are: 0.02 quads for gas wall fan type vented heaters, 0.07 quads for gas wall gravity type vented heaters, 0.00 quads for gas floor vented heaters, and 0.04 quads for gas room vented heaters. The DHE NIA spreadsheet published March 23, 2010 Available at:
www.regulations.gov/document?D=EERE-2006STD-0129-0148 Last accessed Aug. 13, 2020.

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site energy consumption, as compared to the current standard levels.27
The April 2010 final rule did not contemplate or include a TSL with specific provisions for a condensing gas wall fan type vented heater. DOE
identified one manufacturer of condensing gas fan type vented heaters which produces two models at 90percent AFUE.
i. Manufacturer Impacts December 2009 NOPR
As stated in section II.B.3.b. of this document, in the NOPR that preceded the April 2010 final rule, DOE proposed to amend standards for vented heaters to TSL 3. 74 FR 65852, 65973 Dec. 11, 2009. In response to that proposal, DOE
received several comments expressing concerns that:
Shipments of vented heaters were low, and, therefore, potential energy savings were low;
Low shipments would make it difficult for manufacturers to recoup the costs to comply with amended standards;
Product offerings may be limited as a response to amended standards;
Manufacturers may exit the industry as a result of amended standards;
Employment may be negatively impacted due to reduced product lines and insufficient return on investment.
75 FR 20112, 20218 April 16, 2010.
April 2010 Final Rule In the April 2010 final rule, DOE
additionally found that the industry had gone through considerable consolidation due to decreased 27 DOE used the April 2010 final rule NIA
spreadsheet for DHE to calculate the total 30-year site energy consumption at the current standard levels then TSL 2. The Base Case Consumption worksheet is used to calculate the total site energy consumption at the current standard levels for each product class. This worksheet includes the total source energy Quads per product class. DOE
converted the total source energy to site energy by removing the site-to-source factors which come from the EnergyPrices SitetoSource worksheet from the calculation. The site energy consumption calculation was then expanded to take into account the site energy consumption over 30 years of product shipments 20132042 and include the full lifetime of products shipped over the 30 year period 20132042, to match the site energy savings calculation. Finally, the totals per product class were adjusted to take into account the energy savings for the current standard then TSL 2. The resulting 30-year site energy consumption totals per product class are: 0.55 quads for gas wall fan type vented heaters, 1.30 quads for gas wall gravity type vented heaters, 0.02 quads for gas floor vented heaters, and 0.24 quads for gas room vented heaters.
The 0.13 quads of 30-year site energy savings from the max-tech TSL are then divided by the resulting total value of 2.11 quads for the 30-year site energy consumption at the current standard levels, which results in the 6-percent value.

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shipments, that product lines were primarily maintained to provide replacement products, and that some small business manufacturers could be disproportionately affected by a morestringent standard. 75 FR 20112, 20199, and 20218 April 16, 2010. As mentioned in section III.B.3.g. of this document, the April 2010 final rule presented a trend of declining annual shipments throughout the 30-year analysis period. As discussed in section II.B.2.b. of this document, DOE
ultimately adopted standards at TSL 2
for vented heaters, which was one TSL
below the proposed level. In rejecting proposed TSL 3, DOE concluded that the benefits of higher potential standard levels would be outweighed by the economic burden on some consumers, the large capital conversion costs that could result in a large reduction in INPV
for the manufacturers of vented heaters, and the potential for small business manufacturers of vented heaters to reduce their product offerings or to be forced to exit the market completely, thereby reducing competition in the vented heater market. 75 FR 20112, 2021820219 April 16, 2010.
October 2016 Final Determination In the April 2016 proposed determination that preceded the October 2016 final determination, DOE
tentatively determined that the conclusions presented in the April 2010
final rule were still valid. 81 FR 21276, 21281 April 11, 2016. Further, DOE
has found that the number of models offered in each of the vented heater product classes decreased in the time between the April 2010 final rule and the October 2016 final determination, which indicated that the vented heater market was shrinking and product lines were mainly maintained as replacements for current vented heater products. 81 FR 71325, 71327 Oct. 17, 2016.
In the October 2016 final determination, DOE noted that the number of manufacturers declined from six to four, indicating consolidation in the vented heater industry. 81 FR 71325, 71328 Oct. 17, 2016.
Current Analysis of Manufacturer Impacts In DOEs most recent review of the market, a total of four manufacturers were identified within the vented heater industry. At least two of those four manufacturers are domestic small businesses. In the December 2020
NOPD, DOE had previously identified five manufacturers, four of which were domestic small businesses. 85 FR 77017, 77028 Dec. 1, 2020. Between the
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