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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 167 / Wednesday, September 1, 2021 / Proposed Rules contingency measures for potential failures to meet RFP, submit a quantitative milestone report or meet the quantitative milestones associated with the period 4.5 and 7.5 years after designation in this case, the 2019 and 2022 RFP milestone years. With respect to both RFP milestone years, we find that the contingency measure element is inadequate to meet the Moderate area contingency measure requirements for several reasons.
First, the emission reductions relied upon in the contingency measure element to show compliance with the contingency measure requirement i.e., those surplus to RFP, reductions from the 2015 amendments to Rule 4905, and incentive-based emission reductions from projects in 20112016 in conjunction with District Rule 9610
come from measures that are not prospective i.e., to-be-triggered but rather come from measures that have already been implemented, and thus would not constitute contingency measures under CAA section 172c9
consistent with the Bahr decision.211
We recognize that the District has taken action to fulfill the commitment in the 2018 PM2.5 Plan to revise District Rule 4901 to include specific to-betriggered contingency provisions.
However, the contingency measure provision section 5.7.3 added to the rule is only triggered by a finding of failure to attain the PM2.5 NAAQS by the applicable attainment date and not by failures to meet a quantitative milestone, submit a quantitative milestone report, or failure to meet an RFP requirement. Thus, the rule does not include contingency provisions to address the types of failures that are the triggering events for contingency measures for Moderate areas that cannot practicably attain the PM2.5 NAAQS by the applicable attainment date.
Therefore, section 5.7.3 of District Rule 4901 does not meet the contingency measure requirements of CAA section 172c9 and 40 CFR 51.1014 for the SJV with respect to Moderate area requirements for the 2012 PM2.5
NAAQS.
Second, as a general matter, we find that surplus emissions reductions in the years following RFP milestone years can be taken into account in determining whether a contingency measure or 211 We note that the Ninth Circuits decision in Bahr v. EPA was published on September 12, 2016, just three days before the SJVUAPCD adopted the 2016 PM2.5 Plan on September 15, 2016.
Subsequently, the District and CARB addressed the Bahr decision within their discussion of contingency measures for the Serious area plan for the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS in the San Joaquin Valley i.e., the 2018 PM2.5 Plan.

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contingency measures are adequate for a given area for a given pollutant notwithstanding the fact that the contingency measure or contingency measures would not achieve reductions equivalent to one years worth of RFP.
However, the contingency measure element in the 2016 PM2.5 Plan provides no emissions estimates for the year following the 2022 RFP milestone year for such an evaluation. The contingency measure element of the nonattainment area plan only provides estimates of surplus emissions reductions in 2019.
Furthermore, with respect to the emissions analysis for 2019, neither Rule 9610 State Implementation Plan Credit for Emission Reductions Generated Through Incentive Programs nor the list of Carl Moyer incentive projects in Appendix C of the 2016 PM2.5 Plan may be relied upon as a source for surplus emissions reductions because Rule 9610 is not an emission reduction measure 212 and because the Carl Moyer incentive projects listed in Appendix C of the 2016 PM2.5 Plan do not satisfy CAA
requirements for SIP emission reduction credit, as interpreted in the EPAs guidance.213 In addition, the emission reductions that might otherwise be considered surplus due to the 2015
adoption of tighter emissions limits in District Rule 4905 would not be considered surplus without additional documentation because of the option in Rule 4905 to pay mitigation fees in lieu of compliance with emissions limits.214
212 80 FR 19020 April 9, 2015 final approval of Rule 9610, 79 FR 28652 May 19, 2014 proposed approval noting that Rule 9610 does not establish any emission limitation, control measure, or other requirement that applies directly to an emission source, and EPA, Region IX Air Division, Technical Support Document for EPAs Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for the California State Implementation Plan, San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Districts Rule 9610, State Implementation Plan Credit for Emission Reductions Generated through Incentive Programs, May 2014, 45 noting that Rule 9610 does not apply to any emission source and does not directly impact emissions.
213 The EPAs longstanding position with respect to incentive-based control measures is that SIP
credit may be allowed for such measures only where the State submits enforceable mechanisms to ensure that the emission reductions necessary to meet applicable CAA requirements are achieved e.g., an enforceable commitment to monitor and report on emission reductions achieved and to rectify any shortfall in a timely manner. See, e.g., 80 FR 19020, 19026. The 2016 PM2.5 Plan does not contain such enforceable mechanisms addressing the Carl Moyer projects listed in Appendix C.
214 EPA, Region IX Air Division, Technical Support Document for EPAs Proposed Rulemaking for the California State Implementation Plan SIP, San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Districts Rule 4905, Natural Gas-Fired, Fan-Type Central Furnaces, October 5, 2015, fn. 8. The EPA
approved the 2015 amended version of District Rule 4905 at 81 FR 17390 March 29, 2016.

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Third, as a general matter, we agree that the use of trading ratios established through modeling techniques to convert surplus reductions of direct PM2.5
emissions to equivalent PM2.5 precursor emissions may be appropriate as part of the explanation for why a given contingency measure or measures are sufficient in an area with respect to a specific NAAQS. In this instance, however, we note that reliance on trading surplus direct PM2.5 reductions for NOX reductions at a ratio of 1:8.8
may overestimate the amount of equivalent NOX reductions based on the information in the 2018 PM2.5 Plan. For the 2018 PM2.5 Plan, the State conducted further analysis of the sensitivity of ambient PM2.5 to emission reductions in PM2.5 precursors, as discussed in section IV.I.2 of this proposal. Based on this updated analysis for Bakersfield and Fresno sites, the State proposes to use a 1:6.5
trading ratio between direct PM2.5 and NOX for purposes of the 2018 PM2.5
Plans MVEBs. This suggests that, while for a different CAA purpose i.e., MVEB
rather than contingency measures, any excess direct PM2.5 used for evaluation of contingency measures would be equivalent to fewer NOX emissions reductions than assumed for the 2016
PM2.5 Plan.
Therefore, in light of the deficiencies described in the preceding paragraphs, we are proposing to disapprove the contingency measure element of the 2016 PM2.5 Plan, as amended in the 2018 PM2.5 Plan, for failure to meet the requirements for contingency measures under CAA section 172c9 and 40
CFR 51.1014a in the SJV with respect to Moderate area requirements for the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS. More specifically, we are proposing to disapprove the contingency measure element for failure to provide for the implementation of specific measures to be undertaken if the area fails, with respect to the 2019
and 2022 RFP milestone years, to meet RFP, to submit a quantitative milestone report 2022 RFP milestone year only,215 or to meet the quantitative milestones and that, once triggered, provide sufficient emissions reductions to meet the purposes of contingency measures under the CAA and EPAs implementing regulations.
I. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets 1. Requirements for Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets Section 176c of the CAA requires federal actions in nonattainment and 215 CARB and the District have prepared and submitted the 2019 quantitative milestone report and we are currently reviewing it for adequacy.

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