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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 164 / Friday, August 27, 2021 / Proposed Rules
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TABLE 3SUMMARY OF ENDORSED FCPSContinued Endorsed FCPs a
Year Min

Current Baseline Table 4 illustrates the following discussion of our baseline analysis. In order to calculate the cost savings of this rule, and to determine our baseline industry costs, we first estimated the number of endorsed FCPs who would be applying for a merchant mariner medical certificate in any given year for the next 10 years, excluding those with medical waivers. To obtain this number, we took the total number of endorsed FCPs holding a medical certificate with or without time-limited medical waivers, 3,897, as shown in table 2. We then subtracted the number of endorsed
FCPs who submit medical certificate applications on an annual basis due to time-limited restrictions, 195. We obtained a population of 3,702 endorsed FCPs who will submit their medical certificate applications every 5 years under the proposed rule. We then divided this number 3,702 by 2, which is the application rate of FCPs who are issued medical certificates 1
application every 2 years to obtain an annual estimate of 1,851 medical certificates issued 3,702 2. However, the number of endorsed FCPs has decreased over time, at an average annual rate of 0.48 percent from 2011
2020. We incorporated this average
4,055

Growth rate %
b t = at-at-1/at-1 100

annual rate of decline in order to obtain the expected number of endorsed FCPs in a 10-year period of analysis. Column d t in table 4, Current Regulation Medical Certificate Applications With Decline, captures the affected population after applying the annual average rate of decline in column b and the application rate in column c t.
The equation for column d t is represented as d t = c t + 1 + b t for all t, where t denotes the period of time, and t is discrete and positive.
Table 4 presents the number of medical certificate applications under the baseline analysis.
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Table 4. Baseline Analysis of FCPs Mariner Medical Certificate Applications
c, = a 7 2

d ,= c,x 1 + b
for all t
10

1,851
1,851
1,851
1,851
1,851
1,851
1,851
1,851
1.851
1.851

1,842
1,833
1,825
1,816
1,807
1,799
1,790
1,781
1.773
1.764

Total Average
18,511
1,851

18,030
1,803

1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 9

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I

3,702

-0.48%

Proposed Regulation Table 5 illustrates the following discussion of our methodology for estimating the number of medical certificate applications for the affected
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Current Regulation Medical Certificate Applications With Decline
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population under this proposed rule.
This is similar to the previously discussed Current Baseline section.
The population and the estimated rate of decline are assumed to be identical
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under both the baseline scenario and the proposed rule. The difference in the methodology for the proposed rule is reflected in the application frequency for FCPs. We calculated this by taking
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Year
Current Regulation Medical Certificate Applications Not Population Growth Incorporating a b Growth