Quiero saber acerca de...

lotter on DSK11XQN23PROD with PROPOSALS1

41930

Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 147 / Wednesday, August 4, 2021 / Proposed Rules
genetic variation among breeding colonies. Emperor penguins are distributed around the entire coastline of Antarctica, and we assessed the status of the species in relation to the five sectors. Therefore, to assess the significance and status questions, we consider emperor penguins to occur within five sectors.
We chose to first address the status questionwe consider information pertaining to the geographic distribution of both the species and the threats that the species faces to identify any portions of the range where the species is endangered or threatened. We considered whether the threat of climate change is geographically concentrated in any portion of the species range at a biologically meaningful scale. Climate change is not projected to have a uniform effect around the entire continent of Antarctica; the rate and magnitude of decline of sea-ice conditions and breeding colonies vary temporally and spatially. It is in this context that we considered the concentration of threats of climate change to the emperor penguin.
We found that climate change is projected to substantially affect the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen SeaAmundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors under every modeled emissions scenario within the foreseeable future. The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea sectors are considered strongholds for the species now and into the foreseeable future because they have the most stable long-term sea-ice condition. However, projections under low-, moderate-, and high-emissions scenarios result in a substantial decline of the breeding colonies and sea-ice condition in the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors. By 2050, the colonies within these three sectors decline rather quickly and are projected to decline by at least 50 percent, with the vast majority projected to decline by more than 90 percent under every scenario.
Currently, breeding colonies are distributed along the entire coastline of Antarctica with no gaps larger than 500
kilometers 311 miles between colonies, except in front of large ice shelves see figure 1, above. By 2050, the global population of emperor penguins is projected to decline between 26 percent to approximately 185,000 breeding pairs and 47 percent to approximately 132,500 breeding pairs; however, almost the entire decline of global breeding pairs is because of the loss of breeding colonies in the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea, and Western Pacific
VerDate Sep<11>2014

16:17 Aug 03, 2021

Jkt 253001

Ocean sectors. This results in a substantial decline of the population and distribution of breeding colonies in these three sectors. Therefore, because climate change is projected to affect the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen SeaAmundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors of the species range more than the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea sectors, resulting in a substantial decline of the breeding colonies in these three sectors, the species may be in danger of extinction or likely to become so within the foreseeable future in this portion of its range.
We first considered whether the species was endangered in the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean portion of the species range. The emperor penguin is currently in high condition throughout its range see Status Throughout All of Its Range, above.
Therefore, the emperor penguin within these three sectors of its range is also currently in high condition, and the best scientific and commercial data available indicates that this portion of its range currently has sufficient resiliency, redundancy, and representation to be secure in its current state. Therefore, the emperor penguin is not currently in danger of extinction endangered in that portion of its range.
However, while the divergence in global population projections between the scenarios becomes more evident around 2050, under every scenario the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen SeaAmundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors are projected to substantially decline within the foreseeable future. The decline in the global population is almost entirely attributed to the decline of sea-ice conditions and loss of breeding colonies in the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors. By 2050, breeding colonies within these three sectors decline by at least 50 percent, with the vast majority projected to decline by more than 90 percent. Therefore, the emperor penguin in the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors will have minimal to no resiliency, distribution of breeding colonies, or genetic and ecological diversity because very few colonies and breeding pairs are projected to remain in this portion of the species range by 2050. Thus, the species is likely to become in danger of extinction within the foreseeable future in the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors.
We then proceeded to ask the question whether the portion of the
PO 00000

Frm 00024

Fmt 4702

Sfmt 4702

range including the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors is significant. We assessed whether this portion of the species range is biologically significant by considering it in terms of the portions contribution to resiliency, redundancy, or representation of the species as a whole.
The Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors account for 40 to 50
percent of the global population, approximately 60 percent of the species range and total number of known breeding colonies, and 50 percent of the known genetic diversity. Ecological diversity between breeding colonies in the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen SeaAmundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors include breeding location sea ice vs. ice shelf, distance to open water, exposure to katabatic winds cold dense air flowing out from interior Antarctica to the coast, and amount of snowfall. Breeding colonies within the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen SeaAmundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors provide connectivity between colonies within the metapopulations and among the metapopulations in different sectors.
Currently, it is likely that all breeding colonies are connected because the average distance between colonies throughout the species range 500
kilometers 311 miles is well within the distance that emperor penguins can travel/disperse. The fact that emperor penguins travel widely as juveniles, move among breeding colonies, and share molting locations indicates that dispersal between breeding colonies provides gene flow among colonies Thiebot et al. 2013, entire; Younger et al. 2017, p. 3894. If there were minimal to no breeding colonies as projected in the Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen SeaAmundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors, the distance between colonies would substantially increase and reduce the probability that all colonies are connected and provide gene flow among colonies. Additionally, the diversity of the species and its habitat would substantially decrease because the vast majority of colonies that would remain as projected would only be in the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea sectors. The Indian Ocean, Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea, and Western Pacific Ocean sectors contribute significantly to the emperor penguins global population size resiliency, global distribution around the entire coastline of Antarctica redundancy, and genetic and ecological diversity representation of
E:FRFM04AUP1.SGM

04AUP1