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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 147 / Wednesday, August 4, 2021 / Proposed Rules
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seasons Williams 1995, p. 160.
Females lay one egg. Males incubate the egg on their feet while females go to sea to forage. Once the egg hatches, males and females alternate between chickrearing duties and foraging until the chick can thermoregulate independently, and then both adults forage simultaneously to provide enough food for their growing chick. It takes about 150 days from hatching to fledging before chicks depart from the colony Stonehouse 1953, p. 28.
Juveniles come back to a colony at approximately 4 years of age and breed for the first time at about 5 years of age Jenouvrier et al. 2005, Appendix A.
Yearlings and subadults can regularly occur at colonies, but they do not yet breed Wienecke 2021, pers. comm..
Breeding success varies from year to year in relation to both biotic factors mainly food availability and abiotic factors e.g., ice conditions, heavy precipitation. In general, breeding success for Aptenodytes species is 0.6
0.8 chicks per pair while laying only a single-egg clutch Williams 1995, p. 33.
At the Point Geologie colony, breeding success for emperor penguin varied over six decades from 2 to 88 percent Jenouvrier et al. 2005, entire; Jenouvrier et al. 2009, entire. In the same season, breeding success may vary among colonies Robertson et al. 2014, p. 257.
Approximately 80 percent of mature emperor penguins breed every year Jenouvrier et al. 2005, p. 2900. The mean survival rate is estimated to be 95
percent for adults, and 40 percent for juveniles Abadi et al. 2017, p. 1357;
Mougin and Beveren 1979, in Williams 1995, p. 160. At Point Geologie, annual adult survival was 6098 percent over six decades Barbraud and Weimerskirch 2001, in Jenouvrier et al.
2012 appendices, p. 31. The population growth rate of long-lived species is mainly sensitive to changes in adult survival Barbraud and Weimerskirch 2001, p. 184.
Population Size As of 2020, 61 known emperor penguin breeding colonies are extant around Antarctica Fretwell and Trathan 2020; Fretwell and Trathan 2009;
Fretwell et al. 2012, 2014; Wienecke 2011; Ancel et al. 2014; LaRue et al.
2015. The global population size is estimated at approximately 270,000
280,000 breeding pairs or 625,000
650,000 individual birds Trathan et al.
2020, p. 4; National Geographic 2020, unpaginated; Fretwell and Trathan 2020, p. 10. Sea ice surrounding Antarctica is described within five sectors Weddell Sea, Indian Ocean, Western Pacific Ocean, Ross Sea, and
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Bellingshausen Sea-Amundsen Sea; see figure 2, below, which may approximately correspond to the known genetic variation among colonies and the Southern Ocean as a whole. The Ross Sea and Weddell Sea sectors contain the highest abundance of emperor penguins relative to the other three sectors.
Data sources include ground and aerial surveys, particularly satellite imagery. Most of the colonies have never been, and perhaps never will be, visited by humans because most breeding colonies are not practical to visit. They are too remote from occupied research stations, and the emperor penguin breeding season occurs during the austral winter, when ground visits to breeding colonies are not feasible with existing techniques Jenouvrier et al.
2014a, p. 715; Ancel et al. 2014, p. 1.
Satellite imaging makes it possible to monitor inaccessible colony locations and estimate colony sizes; although such estimates of colony sizes may be imprecise because colonies move with the wind Trathan 2021, pers. comm., they provide the best available information for inaccessible colonies.
Regulatory and Analytical Framework Regulatory Framework Section 4 of the Act 16 U.S.C. 1533
and its implementing regulations 50
CFR part 424 set forth the procedures for determining whether a species is an endangered species or a threatened species. The Act defines an endangered species as a species that is in danger of extinction throughout all or a significant portion of its range, and a threatened species as a species that is likely to become an endangered species within the foreseeable future throughout all or a significant portion of its range. The Act requires that we determine whether any species is an endangered species or a threatened species because of any of the following factors:
A The present or threatened destruction, modification, or curtailment of its habitat or range;
B Overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or educational purposes;
C Disease or predation;
D The inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms; or E Other natural or manmade factors affecting its continued existence.
These factors represent broad categories of natural or human-caused actions or conditions that could have an effect on a species continued existence.
In evaluating these actions and conditions, we look for those that may
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have a negative effect on individuals of the species, as well as other actions or conditions that may ameliorate any negative effects or may have positive effects.
We use the term threat to refer in general to actions or conditions that are known to or are reasonably likely to negatively affect individuals of a species. The term threat includes actions or conditions that have a direct impact on individuals direct impacts, as well as those that affect individuals through alteration of their habitat or required resources stressors. The term threat may either encompass together or separatelythe source of the action or condition or the action or condition itself.
However, the mere identification of any threats does not necessarily mean that the species meets the statutory definition of an endangered species or a threatened species. In determining whether a species meets either definition, we must evaluate all identified threats by considering the expected response by the species, and the effects of the threatsin light of those actions and conditions that will ameliorate the threatson an individual, population, and species level. We evaluate each threat and its expected effects on the species, and then analyze the cumulative effect of all of the threats on the species as a whole.
We also consider the cumulative effect of the threats in light of those actions and conditions that will have positive effects on the species, such as any existing regulatory mechanisms or conservation efforts. The Secretary determines whether the species meets the definition of an endangered species or a threatened species only after conducting this cumulative analysis and describing the expected effect on the species now and within the foreseeable future.
Foreseeable Future The Act does not define the term foreseeable future, which appears in the statutory definition of threatened species. Our implementing regulations at 50 CFR 424.11d set forth a framework for evaluating the foreseeable future on a case-by-case basis. The term foreseeable future extends only so far into the future as the Service can reasonably determine that both the future threats and the species responses to those threats are likely. In other words, the foreseeable future is the period of time in which we can make reliable predictions. Reliable does not mean certain; it means sufficient to provide a reasonable degree of confidence in the prediction. Thus, a
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