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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 145 / Monday, August 2, 2021 / Notices
Figure 71: U.S. Uranium Supply Curve $90
Approximate optimal
$80
Current u.s. usoa concentrate price "$40.

$70

a $60
en
$50
.a .

price $55/lb. to ensure

$40

An increase of $15/lb. would increase
C.

$30

$20

Uranium spot price "$25
April 1, 2019

U.S. US08 concentrate production by "5.5 million lbs.

$10

so 0.0

4.0

2.0

I

6.0
8.0
Pounds supplied Millions
12.0

10.0

Assumes only production at currently permitted mines.

Source: US. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security, FrontEnd Survey, Tab 4b
The $55 per pound price will increase mine capacity to the point where U.S.
uranium mines can supply approximately 6 million pounds of uranium concentrate per year, which is approximately 25 percent of U.S.
nuclear power utilities consumption for U308 concentrate in any given year.
The Secretary recommends that the import reduction be phased in over a five-year period. This will allow U.S.
uranium mines, mills, and converters to reopen or expand closed or idled facilities; hire, train and maintain a skilled workforce; and make necessary investments in new capacity. This phased-in approach will also allow U.S.
nuclear power utilities time to adjust and diversify their fuel procurement contracts to reintroduce U.S. uranium into their supply chains.

The Secretary recommends that either a targeted or global quota be used to adjust the level of imports and that such quota should be in effect for a duration sufficient to allow the necessary time needed to stabilize and revitalize the U.S. uranium industry. According to survey responses, the average time to restart an idle uranium production facility is two to five years, and several additional years are needed to add new capacity. Market certainty, which can be provided by long-term contracts with U.S. nuclear power utilities, is needed to build cash flow, pay down debt, and raise capital for site modernization;
workforce recruitment; and to conduct environmental and regulatory reviews.
Option 1Targeted Zero Quota This targeted zero quota option would prohibit imports of uranium from
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and China the SOE countries to enable U.S.
uranium producers to supply approximately 25 percent of U.S.
nuclear power utility consumption. A
U.S. nuclear power utility or other domestic user would be eligible for a waiver that allows the import of uranium from the SOE countries, with any import of uranium from Russia subject to the Russian Suspension Agreement, after such utility or user files appropriate documentation with the Department. In the case of a U.S.
nuclear power utility, the documentation must show that such utility has a contract or contracts to purchase for their consumption on an annual basis not less than the percentage of U.S. produced uranium U308 concentrate shown in the phasein table below.

PERCENT OF ANNUAL U308 CONCENTRATE CONSUMPTION REQUIRED TO BE SOURCED FROM THE U.S.
2020

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Percent of Annual U308 Concentrate Consumption Required to be Sourced from the U.S.

Phased-in incrementally over five years, this option will help facilitate the reopening and expansion of U.S.
uranium mining, milling, and conversion facilities, and will ensure that U.S. uranium producers can make
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investments required for future financial viability without causing unintentional harm to other market economy uranium producers. This option avoids undue financial harm to U.S. nuclear power utilities by affording them sufficient
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2021
5

10

2022
15

2023
20

2024 and beyond 25

time to adjust their fuel procurement strategies.
The zero quota on uranium imports from SOE countries would not apply to uranium imports from SOE countries for use by U.S. milling, conversion,
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