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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 138 / Thursday, July 22, 2021 / Proposed Rules
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Ta bl e 9 Trans ter p aymen tC a1cu 1af10n, Y ear 1
NAICS

Affected Mean Base Employees Wage a 1,000s
Hourly Wage Increase
Average Weekly Hours
Transfers Millions
Transfers in 2020$
Millions
rel
$12.53
$2.47
42
$2.8
$2.9
0.5
$13.16
$1.84
47
$0.1
$0.1
21
0.0
$12.98
$2.02
44
$2.0
$2.0
22
0.4
$12.85
$2.15
39
$131.0
$132.6
23
30.0
$12.88
$2.12
40
$45.0
$45.5
31-33
10.3
$12.72
$2.28
40
$0.4
$0.4
0.1
42
$12.49
$2.51
34
$66.7
$67.5
44-45
15.2
$12.84
$2.16
39
$187.1
$189.3
48-49
42.3
$12.74
$2.26
37
$21.0
$21.3
51
4.9
$12.90
$2.10
39
$10.2
$10.4
52
2.4
$12.87
$2.13
37
$0.5
$0.5
53
0.1
$12.94
$2.06
38
$193.6
$196.0
54
48.1
$12.35
$2.65
37
$0.0
$0.0
55
0.0
$12.67
$2.33
37
$473.9
$479.7
56
104.5
$12.69
$2.31
33
$23.9
$24.2
61
6.1
$12.74
$2.26
36
$79.6
$80.6
62
18.8
31
$23.1
$23.3
$12.49
$2.51
71
5.6
72
$11.88
$3.12
32
$131.1
$132.7
25.1
81
$12.59
$2.41
34
$23.6
$23.9
5.5
Territories c $12.57
$2.43
36
$32.5
$32.9
7.2
Total NIA
NIA
NIA
$1,448.1
$1,465.7
327.3
a CPS MORG 2019. Mean wage for workers earning between $10.60 $7.40 for tipped workers and $15 per hour.
b Inflated to 2020$ using GDP Deflater.
c Mean wage and hours among workers earning at least $15 per hour is unavailable for territories; therefore, the Department used 2019 CPS MORG data from the fifty states and Washington, D.C.
As discussed in section IV.B.4., the number of affected workers may exclude some seasonal recreation workers currently exempt under Executive Order 13838 approximately 1,200 employees as estimated as affected by E.O. 13838.
Excluding these workers may result in a slight underestimate of transfers.
However, some of these currently exempt workers, those earning between $10.60 and $15 per hour, are captured in the analysis. And for these workers, transfers may be somewhat overestimated because we have applied weekly transfers to all 52 weeks. As seasonal employees, the applicable number of work weeks would be lower.

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For longer-run projected transfers, the Department employed the same method used for Year 1 but used the projected number of employees. The Department applied an employment growth rate that is the compounded annual growth rate based on the ten-year projected growth.
The Department assumed that wage growth will be similar to growth in the Federal contractor minimum wage which is indexed annually based on the CPIW.70 Therefore, the number of
affected workers in Year 1 would also apply in future years. Due to employment growth, transfers increase slightly each year, reaching $1.55 billion in Year 10 up from $1.47 billion in Year 1. Average annualized transfers over these ten years, using both the 3
percent and 7 percent discount rates, are $1.5 billion. Year 1 transfers implicitly account for current state minimum wages through the distribution of wage rates paid.71 If states increase their
70 Wage growth tends to outpace the CPIW.
However, the Department assumes current wages in the absence of this proposed minimum wage regulation and the Federal contractor minimum wage in this proposed regulation will grow at roughly the same rate. If workers wages grow faster
than the CPIW, then transfers could be slightly overestimated.
71 In using the CPS MORG data to estimate the percentage of workers earning a wage rate in the affected range, the Department did not drop
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