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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 110 / Thursday, June 10, 2021 / Proposed Rules AHRI and A.O. Smith both stated that the UFHWST market is very small and often customized, and that the predominant market for UFHWSTs is for replacement equipment. AHRI, No.
6 at p. 2; A.O. Smith, No. 8 at pp.1
While this may be the case, DOE expects that manufacturers of this equipment will continue to seek out new markets and that some equipment will be sold into new construction. Therefore, the Department developed projections for this market as described in section IV.E.3 of this document.
DOEs approach begins with an estimate of the current stock of UFHWSTs. DOE uses an estimate of average UFHWST lifetime to derive the fraction of the stock that is replaced in each year. DOE then adds an estimate of new UFHWSTs installed in each year.

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1. Stock Estimates DOE investigated each sector that is presumed to operate UFHWSTs:
Residential, commercial, and industrial.
However, DOE was unable to find clear indicators of how many UFHWST are used by any of these sectors, so it developed sectoral stock estimates from publicly-available data, as discussed in the paragraphs that follow.
a. Residential Stock To estimate the stock of UFHWSTs in the residential sector, DOE examined the Residential Energy Consumption Survey RECS 20 database. Although RECS does not contain specific fields that indicate the presence of a UFHWST, nor does RECS catalog specific water heating technologies, DOE was able to examine the available sample for buildings that would be likely to contain a UFHWST. DOE
assumed that such a building would be characterized as follows:
A building with multiple residences TYPEHUQ = 4 and 5, where the hot water heater and storage tank are not in the apartment itself H20HEATAPT = 2, and where the hot water heater is of a type that is tankless, or on-demand.
WHEATSZ = 4
The results of a search of the RECS
database using these assumptions yielded a sample of zero buildings.
Based upon these results, DOE
tentatively agrees with AHRIs statement that UFHWST are primarily installed in industrial/commercial applications AHRI, No. 6 at p. 2. Accordingly, DOE
20 Presently the 2015 edition of RECs is the most recent version. Energy Information Administration EIA, 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey RECS Available at: https www.eia.gov/
consumption/residential/ Last accessed April 4, 2019.

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has tentatively concluded that the quantity of UFHWST installed in the residential sector is minimal and should not be considered for the purpose of this determination.
b. Commercial Stock To estimate the stock of UFHWSTs in the commercial sector, DOE examined the Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey CBECS.21
Although CBECS does not contain specific fields that indicate the presence of a UFHWST, DOE was able to examine the available sample for buildings that would be likely to contain a UFHWST.
DOE assumed that such a building would be characterized as follows:
A building with water heating equipment WTHTEQ = 1, and Where the main heating equipment is boilers inside or adjacent to the building that produce steam or hot water MAINHT = 3.
The results of a search of the CBECS
database using these assumptions yielded a commercial sample of 325,089
buildings in 2012. DOE could not find any data specifying the quantity of UFHWSTs per commercial building, so for this analysis, DOE assumed one UFWHST per building of all sizes. From this sample DOE also found that 99.2
percent of these buildings use natural gas as their primary energy source for water heating, with the remaining 0.8
percent of buildings using district water heating,22 electricity, heating oil, or other fuels. For purpose of this analysis, DOE considered 100 percent of commercial buildings to use natural gas to heat water.
c. Industrial Stock DOE examined the industrial data source listed in the August 2019 ECS
RFI and was not able to determine an appropriate stock sample from the highly aggregated data available.23 24
DOE understands that UFHWSTs are 21 Presently, the 2012 edition of CBECs is the most recent version. Energy Information Administration EIA, 2012 Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey CBECS Available at:
https www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/
Last accessed April 4, 2019.
22 District heating is an underground infrastructure asset where thermal energy is provided to multiple buildings from a central energy plant or plants. In this context, it would be operated by local governments.
23 Energy Information Administration EIA, 2014
Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey MECS
Available at: https www.eia.gov/consumption/
manufacturing/data/2014/ Last accessed April 4, 2019.
24 Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, 2014
Industrial Facilities Site Assessment: Report &
Analytic Results, 2014 Available at: https
neea.org/img/documents/2014-industrial-facilitiesstock-assessment-final-report.pdf Last accessed May 3, 2021.

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used to store potable hot water for human consumption and washing, not for industrial process water. Therefore, DOE assumed that the need for hot water storage would be the similar across both commercial and manufacturing sectors on a per-person basis.
To estimate the stock of industrial consumers, DOE used the number of manufacturing employees from the 2017
census.25 DOE first determined the ratio of UFHWSTs per commercial employee.
DOE then used the ratio of the employee count from the commercial sample described in section IV.E.1.b of this document over the total number of commercial employees to represent the number of UFHWSTs in the commercial sector on a per-employee basis. DOE
then applied this ratio to the total number of manufacturing employees from the 2017 census to produce a National stock estimate for the industrial sector.
Table IV.9 presents the estimated stock of UFHWSTs in each sector, in 2012.

TABLE IV.9ESTIMATED UFHWST
STOCK 2012
Number of units
Sector Residential
Commercial
Industrial

I

0
315,360
71,361

Weight %

I

0
82
18

DOE requests comments generally regarding its stock analysis for UFHWSTs.
DOE requests comment regarding its assumption that there would be only one UFWHST per building.
DOE requests comment regarding its disaggregation of UFHWST stock by sector.
DOE requests comment on its assumption that UFHWSTs are not used for industrial process hot water storage.
2. Shipments for Replacement For this analysis DOE was unable to locate data on average lifetimes for UFHWSTs, and the Department likewise could not find primary data indicating average or maximum lifetimes for UFHSWTs. DOE understands that some of the causes of failure in other hot water storage tanks include corrosion, sediment build-up, and mechanical 25 U.S. Census Bureau, All Sectors: Summary Statistics for the U.S., States, and Selected Geographies: 2017, Table EC1700BASIC, 2017
Available at: https data.census.gov/cedsci/
table?q=31-33%3A%20Manufacturing&
hidePreview=false&tid=
ECNBASIC2017.EC1700BASIC&vintage=2017 Last accessed: March 27, 2020.

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