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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 106 / Friday, June 4, 2021 / Proposed Rules
primary factors affecting the cost of a CFLK using integrated SSL circuitry?
1. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis DOE conducts the life-cycle cost LCC and payback period PBP
analysis to evaluate the economic effects of potential energy conservation standards for CFLKs on individual consumers. The effect of new or amended energy conservation standards on individual consumers usually involves a reduction in operating cost and an increase in purchase cost. For any given EL, DOE measures the PBP
and the change in LCC relative to an estimated baseline level. The LCC is the total consumer expense of a product over its lifetime, consisting of total
installed cost product price, sales tax, and installation costs plus operating costs expenses for energy use, maintenance, and repair. To compute the operating costs, DOE discounts future operating costs to the time of purchase and sums them over the lifetime of the product. The PBP is the estimated amount of time in years it takes consumers to recover the increased purchase cost including installation of a more-efficient product through lower operating costs. DOE
calculates the PBP by dividing the change in purchase cost at higher efficiency levels by the change in annual operating cost for the year that amended or new standards are assumed to take effect.

For each potential standard level, DOE measures the change in LCC based on the estimated change in efficacy distribution in the standards case relative to the estimated efficacy distribution in the no-new-standards case. These efficacy distributions include market trends for products that may exceed the efficacy associated with a given standard level as well as the current energy conservation standards.
In contrast, the PBP for a given EL is measured relative to the baseline product.
Table II.7 summarizes the approach and data DOE used to derive inputs to the LCC and PBP calculations for CFLKs in the January 2016 Final Rule. See chapter 8 of the January 2016 Final Rule TSD and its appendices for more detail.

TABLE II.7SUMMARY OF INPUTS AND METHODS FOR THE LCC AND PBP ANALYSIS IN THE JANUARY 2016 FINAL RULE
Inputs
Source/method
Product Cost

Multiplied the weighted-average consumer price of each CFLK lamp and socket determined in the product price determination with a scaling factor to account for the total weighted-average CFLK lumen output. For LED lamps, DOE used a price learning analysis to project CFLK lamp prices to the compliance year.
Derived 2019 population-weighted-average tax values for each state based on Census population projections and sales tax data from Sales Tax Clearinghouse.
Assumed 35% of commercial CFLs are disposed of at a cost of $0.70 per CFL. Assumptions based on industry expert feedback and a Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection mercury lamp recycling rate report.
Derived in the energy use analysis. Varies by geographic location and room type in the residential sector and by building type in the commercial sector.
Electricity: Based on 2014 marginal electricity price data from the Edison Electric Institute.
Variability: Marginal electricity prices vary by season, U.S. region, and baseline electricity consumption level.
Based on AEO 2015 price forecasts.
For lamp failures during the lifetime of the CFLK, consumers replace lamps with lamp options available in the market that have the same base type and provide a similar lumen output to the initially packaged lamps.
Represents the value of surviving lamps at the end of the CFLK lifetime. DOE discounts the residual value to the start of the analysis period and calculates it based on the remaining lamps lifetime and price in the year the CFLK is retired.
Based on a ceiling fan lifetime distribution, with a mean of 13.8 years.
Approach involves identifying all possible debt or asset classes that might be used to purchase the considered appliances, or might be affected indirectly. Primary data source was the Federal Reserve Boards Survey of Consumer Finances.
Estimated by the market-share module of shipments model.

Sales Tax
Disposal Cost
Annual Energy Use
Energy Prices
Energy Price Trends
Lamp Replacements
Residual Value
Product Lifetime
Discount Rates
Efficacy Distribution

See chapter 8 of the January 2016 Final Rule TSD for references for the data sources mentioned in this table.
DOE did not take into account installation cost as one of the total installed cost inputs. DOE assumed that the installation cost, which represents all costs required to install the CFLK, was not affected by changes in product efficacy and was therefore the same for all ELs for both the residential and commercial sectors.

Issue 30: DOE requests comment on whether the methodology described in the January 2016 Final Rule is appropriate.
Issue 31: DOE requests comments on whether the inputs described in Table II.7 of this document need to be changed beyond updating to a more recent version of the source cited in the table if an updated version exists.
3. Manufacturer Impact Analysis The purpose of the manufacturer impact analysis MIA is to estimate the financial impact of amended energy
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conservation standards on manufacturers of CFLKs, and to evaluate the potential impact of such standards on direct employment and manufacturing capacity. The MIA
includes both quantitative and qualitative aspects. The quantitative part of the MIA primarily relies on the Government Regulatory Impact Model GRIM, an industry cash-flow model adapted for the product in this analysis, with the key output of industry net present value INPV. The qualitative part of the MIA addresses the potential
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impacts of energy conservation standards on manufacturing capacity and industry competition, as well as factors such as product characteristics, impacts on particular subgroups of firms, and important market and product trends.
As part of the MIA, DOE analyzes impacts of amended energy conservation standards on subgroups of manufacturers of covered products, including small business manufacturers.
DOE uses the Small Business Administrations SBAs small
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